Emerging economies have lost nearly $2 trillion in stock-market value since the global financial crisis hit in late 2007. The full blame for this meltdown, and then some, can be placed at the door of their state-owned companies, which account for a third of these economies' roughly $9 trillion market capitalization.

2007年年底全球金融危机爆发以来，新兴市场经济体已经损失了近二万亿美元的股市市值。新兴市场股市的崩溃一开始可以完全归咎于国有企业，随后则要在一定程度上归咎于国有企业。在这些经济体约九万亿美元的股市市值中，国有企业所占比例为三分之一。

Over the past five years, the value of private companies in emerging economies岸including Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey岸has remained broadly stable. Meanwhile, the value of state-owned companies (defined here as companies with a government ownership stake of at least 30%) dropped by more than 40%. Today there is only one state company (PetroChina) among the 10 most valuable companies in the world, down from five in 2008.

过去五年，新兴经济体（包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国以及墨西哥、印尼和土耳其）民营企业市值仍然普遍保持稳定。而国有企业（本文所指的是政府持股比例至少为30%的公司）市值则下降了逾40%。如今，只有中石油(PetroChina)一家国有企业仍在全球前10大最具价值公司之列，少于2008年的五家。

These losses suggest that the global markets don't buy the conventional wisdom of the postcrisis years when magazine covers heralded 'The Rise of State Capitalism' and books forecast 'The End of the Free Market.' Most of these forecasts started with China, which responded to the growing financial crisis by pushing state-owned banks to lend to priority industries at cheap rates. Beijing also directed state-owned firms to lend and invest aggressively, and otherwise expand state control over the corporate sector.

上述损失表明，全球市场对金融危机后这些年来社会的普遍看法（杂志封面上宣告“国家资本主义崛起”，一些书籍则预言“自由市场终结”）并不买账。这些预期大都是从中国开始谈起的。为应对不断深化的金融危机，中国推动国有银行以低利率向优先行业放贷。中国政府还引导国有企业大举放贷和投资，并扩大国家对企业的控制。

When China escaped the global recession relatively unscathed, it emboldened governments in emerging markets from Russia to Brazil to follow the Chinese example, and many are still promoting state capitalism. They may be forced to reconsider. Investors have been voting with their money and exiting their markets. But it isn't only stock prices that are in decline. Lower profits for state-owned companies mean less money for the government and lower productivity growth for the broader economy.

中国基本毫发无损地摆脱了全球衰退，促使俄罗斯和巴西等新兴市场国家效仿中国的做法，其中许多国家目前仍在推动国家资本主义。这些国家将来可能会被迫重新考虑政策路径。手持资金选择目标的投资者在退出这些市场。但下跌的不仅仅是股价。国有企业利润降低意味着政府税收减少，整体经济的生产力增速也有所下降。

During the mid-2000s, a rising tide of liquidity was flowing out of the U.S. and Europe, and investors began indiscriminately bidding up the stock prices of emerging-market companies, private and state-owned. Betting that rising demand from China would continue to drive up prices for industrial commodities, investors poured money into any company involved in energy or raw materials岸industries often controlled by the government in the emerging world.

在2005年前后，美国和欧洲资本外流增加，投资者开始一股脑地推高新兴市场公司的股价，不论是民营企业还是国有企业都成为投资者追逐的对象。因预计中国需求增加会持续推高大宗工业品价格，投资者将资金注入任何与能源或原材料相关的公司──在新兴市场国家，这些行业通常由政府控制。

All this changed after the crisis. Investors refocused on profitability, and they have once again come to see state companies as slow-witted giants, prone to overinvest and overbuild. According to our research at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, investors now value government-run companies at about half the price of private firms in the same industry, from banking to telecoms.

而金融危机之后这一切发生了变化。投资者开始重新关注盈利状况，国有企业再度被视为迟钝的庞然大物，人们认为这些企业易出现过度投资和过度建设等问题。根据笔者所在的摩根士丹利投资管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)的研究，投资者目前对政府运营企业的估值约为同行业民营企业估值的一半，从银行业到电信业都是如此。

World-wide, investors are also shifting money to technology from commodities. This helps to explain why the U.S.岸a center of tech innovation岸now accounts for nine of the 10 most valuable companies in the world. Meanwhile, state-owned companies in the emerging world aren't being able to keep pace. Technological innovation has never been a forte of bureaucrats.

在全球范围内，投资者还在将资金从大宗商品转移到科技行业。这可以解释为什么全球10大最具价值的公司有九家在美国（美国是科技创新的一个中心）。而新兴市场的国有企业则没有能力跟上时代的步伐。科技创新从来都不是官僚的强项。

Not so long ago many governments in the emerging world also saw state companies as sluggish behemoths, burdening their economies. In the 1990s, many began selling off companies they owned, hoping that private ownership would raise corporate profitability and national productivity岸and often it worked. In China, reform of state-owned enterprises helped sustain the 'economic miracle' there with the government laying off millions of inefficient workers and bringing in more professional management to help run some of its largest companies.

在不算太久之前，许多新兴市场国家的政府也曾将国有企业视为行动迟缓的巨兽，认为它们是经济的负担。20世纪90年代，许多政府开始出售国有企业，希望私人所有制能够提高企业的盈利能力和国家的生产力──这些举措通常颇有成效。在中国，国企改革（政府让数百万效率低下的工人下岗，同时引入更多专业管理者，协助运营一些规模最大的国企）使“经济奇迹”得以延续。

By the following decade, however, the privatization craze was over, discredited by botched attempts in nations such as Russia, where privatization turned into a fire-sale of valuable state assets to rich oligarchs. Meanwhile, the runaway boom in emerging markets was making growth look easy for state and private companies alike.

然而，私有化热潮到本世纪初便结束了，俄罗斯（私有化变成了一场将宝贵国有资产减价卖给富有寡头的行动）等国家的拙劣举措败坏了私有化的名声。与此同时，新兴市场的飞速繁荣让人感觉国有企业和民营企业都很容易实现增长。

Now, with investment flowing out, emerging nations need to return to the path of reform, including privatization and reduced government control over the economy. In the past few years, the profitability of state companies has also been slipping, and now revenue growth is falling fast. Interestingly, China appears to be leading the way in recognizing the need for change.

如今，面对投资外流的局面，新兴市场国家应该回归改革轨道，推进私有化并减少政府对经济的控制。在过去几年里，国有企业的盈利能力也出现滑坡，现在它们的收入增速迅速下降。有意思的是，中国似乎是最先认识到改革必要性的国家。

Since taking office in March, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has been talking about the need for a 'self-imposed' revolution to reduce his government's power and promote 'market mechanisms' for growth. In the West, many commentators still marvel at how China appeared to dodge the global recession by implementing a huge half-trillion dollar stimulus program in 2009. But in China the evolving view is that the funds were misdirected to wasteful projects like unneeded steel and aluminum plants. The state-run Xinhua News Agency has even been running editorials about how another stimulus would be self-defeating.

中国总理李克强今年3月份履新以来一直在谈通过“自我”革命削减政府权力，为促进经济增长而推进“市场机制”的必要性。西方有许多评论人士还在感叹中国是如何通过2009年推行的5,000亿美元大规模刺激政策来摆脱全球衰退的。但在中国已经有了更进一步的认识，人们认为资金被错误地导向浪费性的项目，比如说，一些钢厂和铝厂是没有必要建的。新华社甚至在刊登社论，认为推行新一轮刺激政策会弄巧成拙。

Clearly, China's leadership recognizes that its state enterprises failed to make productive use of the surge in government-directed bank lending after 2009. Indeed, according to my firm's research, since then the return on equity of those enterprises has fallen to below 6% from 10%.

中国政府显然认识到国有企业未能有效利用2009年后在政府引导下激增的银行贷款。事实也的确如此。根据笔者所在机构的研究，2009年以来，这些公司的股本回报率由10%降到了6%以下。

To get their mojo back, governments in emerging markets would do well to also count the mounting costs of state capitalism and start cutting back the role of the state, and putting more of their state-owned companies in private hands. Otherwise, these companies will keep destroying wealth, and undermining the economic growth prospects of emerging nations.

要想恢复魔力，新兴市场的政府还应计算国家资本主义不断攀升的成本，着手削弱国家扮演的角色，并对更多国有企业进行私有化改革。否则，这些企业会继续摧毁财富，损害新兴国家的经济增长前景。