就在几年前，鲍勃·威廉姆斯(Bob Williams)这样的石油地质学家还生怕发现天然气。
Not long ago, oil geologists like Bob Williams would go out of their way to avoid finding natural gas.
“发现一处天然气可能比发现一口干井更糟，”威廉姆斯回忆道。“现在，天然气是本世纪的燃料。”他曾多年为英国石油(BP)效力，目前指导Indago石油(Indago Petroleum)等独立的天然气勘探企业。
“To make a discovery of gas could be worse than having a dry hole,” recalls Mr Williams, who long worked for BP and now directs independent gas explorers such as Indago Petroleum. “Now, it’s the fuel of the century.”
长期以来，天然气被视为石油生产的麻烦副产品，往往与石油一起被发现，但输送到任何市场都昂贵而困难。通常，天然气干脆就被燃烧排入大气。
Gas was long seen as an inconvenient byproduct of producing oil, often found in the same places but expensive and difficult to transport to any markets. Most often, it was simply flared into the atmosphere.
俄罗斯和乌克兰的天然气争端最近在巨大的国际压力下得到解决，说明天然气的战略意义变得何等重要。
Russia’s dispute with Ukraine, resolved yesterday after great international pressure, illustrates just how strategically important gas has become.
20世纪，石油逐渐取代煤炭，成了世界的首选燃料。但近年来天然气消耗飙升。燃烧天然气较其它化石燃料更清洁，且可利用的储量丰富。英国等国家用天然气为家庭供暖，但真正的全球增长将来自天然气发电。
During the 20th century, oil progressively took over from coal as the world’s fuel of choice. But consumption of natural gas has soared in recent years. Gas is cleaner burning than other fossil fuels and is available in plentiful supply. Countries like Britain use it to heat homes but the real international growth will come from its use to generate electricity.
荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)认为，未来15年，全球天然气需求将以每年至多3%的速度增长。
Royal Dutch Shell believes that global demand for natural gas will grow by up to 3 per cent a year over the next 15 years.
但欧洲、美国和亚太区三大市场将不得不日益依赖进口天然气。日本和韩国等亚洲天然气消费大国长期依赖进口。未来几年，欧洲和美国也将加入它们的行列，因为欧洲和美国本身的天然气储量正趋于枯竭。
However, the three largest markets – Europe, the US and Asia Pacific – will have to rely increasingly on imported gas. Large Asian gas consumers such as Japan and Korea have long had to import their gas. In the coming years, they will be joined by Europe and the US, whose indigenous stocks of gas are starting to run out.
埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)预计，25年后，欧洲85%的天然气将依靠进口。
ExxonMobil expects 85 per cent of Europe’s gas to be imported in 25 years’ time.
理论上，这将使俄罗斯和卡塔尔等天然气储量巨大的国家掌握大量政治势力。石油是全球交易、并完全可替代的大宗商品，产油国很难有效孤立某一家顾客。油轮往往在海上交易，即便产油国让某一艘油轮改变航向，也只是腾出了另一艘到别处去。
In theory, this should hand countries with large gas reserves, such as Russia and Qatar, a large amount of political power. Oil is a globally traded and fully fungible commodity, making it difficult for a producer to reliably cut off a customer. Oil tankers are often traded in mid-ocean and even if a tanker is diverted by a producer, it merely frees up another to go elsewhere.
天然气则不同。它多数通过固定的跨国管道输送。因此，生产国有能力切断供应。
Gas is different. It is mostly transported by fixed pipelines, running between one country and another. A producer should therefore be able to turn off the tap.
不过，正如近期俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的争端所示，生产国并不对输气管拥有独家控制权。输气管往往经过一连串国家，这些国家的政治都会影响到天然气供应。
But, as the recent spat between Russia and Ukraine demonstrated, the producer does not have sole control over the pipeline. Pipelines often pass through a series of countries, exposing the gas supply to the politics of all the countries through which it passes.
巨大的“兄弟”管道连接俄罗斯、乌克兰和斯洛伐克，再为西欧提供四分之一的天然气。在苏联时代，管道途经的国家都是俄罗斯的盟国。现在的情况则不同。
The huge “Brotherhood” pipeline connects Russia with Ukraine and Slovakia before supplying up to a quarter of western Europe’s gas. During the Soviet era, the route through which it passed consisted of countries aligned with Russia. That is no longer the case.
“问题之一是，通向欧洲的天然气走廊在政治上发生了断裂，”咨询机构环球透视(Global Insight)的欧洲能源服务主管格雷厄姆·威尔(Graham Weale)表示。
“One of the problems is that the gas corridor to Europe has become politically fractured,” says Graham Weale, director of the European energy service at Global Insight, the consultants.
俄罗斯向欧洲输送的天然气，有多达90%途径乌克兰，其余则必须经过波兰，而波兰则是另一个脱离了俄罗斯政治轨道的国家。
As much as 90 per cent of Russian gas to Europe passes through Ukraine. The rest must pass through Poland – another country that has moved out of Russia’s political orbit.
为“绕开”这一问题，俄罗斯启动了一项宏大的管道建设工程，这条管道位于波罗的海之下，将绕过俄罗斯的邻国，直抵德国与英国。该管道预期耗资50亿美元，最早也要到2010年才能完工。另一个避免管道问题的办法，是以液化天然气的形式运输。近年来，将天然气冷却为液态、使其可像石油那样用油轮运输的技术费用已大为降低。该领域的业务正迅猛增长。壳牌预计，2020年之前，液化天然气交易将每年增长8%至10%。
To get around the problem, Russia has begun construction of an ambitious pipeline under the Baltic Sea that will circumvent its neighbours to reach Germany and the UK directly. The pipeline is expected to cost $5bn ( |
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