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[转帖]看看美国主流媒体资深撰稿人是如何看待中国的(Long)

发布者: Cenger | 发布时间: 2005-11-15 09:24| 查看数: 6244| 评论数: 14|

eter S. Goodman was online from Shanghai to answer your questions about developments in China.
In recent months, Goodman <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2005/10/19/LI2005101901456.html" target="_blank" >has addressed</A> issues including China's wave of privatization, its emergence as a magnet for foreign investment and trade negotiations with the U.S. A collection of his recent articles is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2005/11/02/LI2005110200651.html" target="_blank" >online here</A> .
A transcript follows:

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-11-16 16:51:08编辑过]

Long, Peter, 中国, 撰稿人, 美国

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Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:25:09

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
Amsterdam, Netherlands: Could you give some colour on the way Chinese are looking to the US as they blame the Chinese for a lot of things, ranging from unfair competition while not opening their own markets (e.g. in case of CNOOC but also on Chinese textile imports, ignoring earlier arrangements) and blaming Chinese for the large US current account deficit (while China's grow in recent years largely depends on US growth). Furthermore, recently there are several political clashes related to Chinese supportive policies (or US dissupportive policies) toward governments in e.g. Sudan, Venezuela and Iran?

eter S. Goodman: There's definitely a lot of anger directed at the US these days here, from government officials to entrepreneurs to ordinary people. When the subject is the textile dispute or the currency issue, yes, there is a fairly widespread sentiment that the US is making China a scapegoat for its own economic problems, overlooking the fact that the majority of China's exports come from factories that have some foreign investment. You hear time and again that the $160 billion plus trade surplus is largely a product of foreign (including US) companies taking advantage of cheap labor here to make goods that are being happily snapped up by consumers around the world. And you hear frustration that China has -- as is widely seen here -- opened up its markets to competition from the likes of Citibank and Dell Computer et al, in areas where foreigners are strong, only to see the door slammed in places where China is strong such as textiles. CNOOC's foiled bid to buy Unocal has left a lot of resentment here.

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-11-16 16:51:56编辑过]

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:26:04

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
Frazier Park, California: Do you think that China has enough power to take over the U.S. and eventually the world?

eter S. Goodman: Ah, the question of our time. Or at least the question of the time on the bookstore shelves. I think that China's transformation is clearly a momentous force in the global economy, its appetite for everything from oil to iron ore changing pricing structure, transportation, the environment, energy and security policy. I think that China will continue to be a formidable competitor in near every part of manufacturing and China's rise will create new opprtunities and new tensions pretty much everywhere. I also think that, all of that said, China's emergence can get way overhyped, the conventional perspective failing to account for some huge challenges that China faces -- a rickety banking structure full of lousy loans and more on the way; potentially crippling shortages of water and energy; social instability as state workers are laid off as part of the transition to market economy, and as farmers incomes slip in some parts of the country; a system that still wastes vast quantities of capital on roads to nowhere, white elephant skyscrapers and other such stuff, all of the deals lubricated by brazen and endemic corruption. A long way of saying, dunno. But it will certainly be worth watching.

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-11-16 16:52:49编辑过]

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:27:04

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
Tianjin, China: How do you think about China's education? How much gap do you think is there, compared with the U.S.?

eter S. Goodman: I hear mixed things. Clearly, China is pumping out vast numbers of well-educated people, particularly in the sciences. Engineers abound, and there is intellectual capital to throw at developing the country. But I also hear that creativity and innovation are sorely lacking compared to the US -- maybe a cliche. Also of concern are enormous gaps in the system. In the new China, there really is no universal education: You either pay or you miss out. Farmers are taking on enormous debts to keep their children in school in the hopes that they will make it to college and into the white collar ranks, lifting the whole family out of still endemic rural poverty.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:28:10

eter S. Goodman: Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province, and home of China's greatest food! I hear from marketing and retail types that there is more and more interest in opening up branches of stores in major cities in the interior such as Chengdu. Auto makers have plants there, and surely more manufacturing on tap in a province that is home to 100 million people.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:29:27

eter S. Goodman: Well, many people are asking this. So far, China has firmly said no, and it's kind of hard to imagine why they would want to go this route. If China stopped buying US bonds, US interest rates would climb and US growth would diminish. That would presumably limit the American appetite for all those Chinese-made blue jeans and DVD players and furniture that is creating that big pile of dollars China is sinking into bonds in the first place. China and the US, it is often said, are in a codependent relationship in a global economy out of balance.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:30:17

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
Houston, Texas: If China is so friendly, why is 90 billion being spent on building up their military? Why is China arming terrorist states such as Iran.

eter S. Goodman: China calls its emergence a"peaceful rise." Critics point to China's military buildup, its energy deals with Sudan, Iran and Burma, as evidence that it is anything but peaceful. When you talk to policymakers here who are willing to speak candidly, they will say that China will do business with any state that can help it achieve its aims --securing needed energy, preventing Taiwan from drifting further toward independence. Chinese officials also say they are responding to a world that is, in their view, being menaced by an increasingly unilateralist, interventionist United States. Many have told me that China's recent push to go abroad for energy was propelled in part by their fears that that the American war in Iraq put China in the position of perhaps being left behind in an intensifying global competition for resources and influence.
_______________________
China: Dear Mr. Goodman: A lot of Chinese leaders' children are in business or married big business entrepreneurs. It seems that Chinese politics is gradually merging with the capital business. What are your thoughts on this?
Sincerely

eter S. Goodman: There is no question that the so-called Princelings -- the children of senior Party officials -- are a powerful, sometimes unavoidable force in Chinese business. Many companies hire a Princeling before they apply for the right to list their stock or as a way to secure government business. The Princelings have gotten very skilled at using their connections to state power for personal gain.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:31:31

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
Jiangsu, China: Sir,
I think the weakest point of China's economy is a lack of world-class R&D researchers and research facilities. Can you describe why and how far China is behind USA in this aspect.
Best regards,
Neil Shen

eter S. Goodman: China sinks a very small share of its overall economy into research and development compared to most major economies. Going forward, this could be a real problem. Generally, China has shown a knack for copying things made elsewhere and squeezing costs out of the chain to make them really cheaply, but not much of a knack for designing anything new. Managers want cash now. They don't always have the patience to invest in an idea that could deliver cash later -- maybe not an irrational approach in a country where theft of intellectual property is standard business. Also, so much cheap credit has nurtured an over-abundance of competition, pushing prices for many consumer goods through the floor. With profit margins so tight, many companies lack the capital for R &amp; D.
_______________________
Bratislava, Slovakia: Do you think, that the economic growth in China will firm the communist regime in China or will firm the movement for democracy?

eter S. Goodman: If I knew that, I'd really know something. So far, the Party has done a masterful job making businesses and entrepreneurs part of their project -- co-opting might be the right word. Scholarship has shown that Chinese capitalists as a class tend to be supportive of the Party's aims, and particularly its force as a guarantor of stability, even if it comes through repression. But there is also deep bitterness about the extent of corruption here, the sense that land and capital are largely contolled by those with connections to the Party; bitterness over the sense that neither the courts nor the Chinese press operate transparently, leaving people with little redress when they get wronged by those in power. As Chinese people get wealthier, more are traveling abroad, seeing how other societies function. The Internet and technology in general are both a means of the government keeping tabs on would-be subversives and a subversive force in their own right. I do think, on balance, that the era of capitalism has brought more information into Chinese society, and that tends toward democracy in the long run. But it could be a really long run.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:32:15

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
New Haven, CT: Economic prosperity is usually accompanied by greater knowledge about the world, more expectations from government, and a greater sense of entitlement. Are young middle class Chinese beginning to talk about a political future for their country that includes democracy, or are conversations mostly focused on future economic growth, without mention of altering the communist political system?

eter S. Goodman: Travel, the arrival of foreigners and the Web have all broadened the view. But, to indulge in a gross generalization, my experience has been that most well-educated young Chinese are keenly focused on the amazing economic opportunities that the economic reforms have delivered, and far less on politics. Especially in Shanghai where seemingly all the young people are obsessed with buying apartments, cars and Louis Vuitton luggage.
_______________________
New York, NY: What impact has the growth of the private sector had on education, particularly at the university level?

eter S. Goodman: In some instances, professors at prestigious public schools have traded on their good names to open for profit private schools. In many of these cases, the degrees prove of limited value, though the students must pay -- for them -- exorbitabt tuitions. More generally, an abundance of opportunities spawned by development of private sector has created great interest in studying business, accounting, engineering and such.
_______________________
Taipei, Taiwan: What is the general public sentiment regarding Taiwanese independence? Has it been affected by China's rapid economic development? Is it an important concern to the average citizen? How about to the average professional in a more developed city like Shanghai, with a large ex-pat Taiwanese population?

eter S. Goodman: Overwhelmingly, mainland Chinese are hostile to Taiwan independence, and passionately so. As the Communist Party has embraced capitalism, it has clearly stirred up nationalism as a force of cohesion. I have found in my travels that the more educated the person, the more likely they are to care deeply about Taiwan, with many seeing the independence movement there as an American-nurtured ploy to keep China separate and weakened.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:33:00

eter S. Goodman: I spent a year in Taiwan studying Chinese. I have lived in Shanghai for the last three years plus. I have been fortunate to travel all over the place, to nearly every province. And it hasn't gotten boring yet.
_______________________
Durham, NC: It seems that many companies are investing in China in hopes they will make money in the future. Are any companies actually making returns on their investments now?

eter S. Goodman: Good question. Data is scarce, because most publicly traded companies don't break out their China earnings for separate inspection. But surveys and anecdotes suggest that the last two years have been nicely profitable for a lot of multinationals, particularly car companies and household goods and fast food companies. Still, there are plenty of examples of companies getting intoxicated by the potential of 1.3 billion customers -- 2.6 billion feet for shoe companies to target! Incalculable teeth for the toothbrush makers! -- while engaging in risky deal-making they would avoid elsewhere.
_______________________
Raleigh, North Carolina: I have been to China a few times. As you are aware of , the air and water pollution problem is very serious. What is your opinion on this? Do you think China will be able to rectify these issues?

eter S. Goodman: It's a big problem, no doubt. There is more and more official rhetoric devoted to the need to take care of the environment, and increasingly visible protests by villagers fed up with water pollution and the loss of land to development. But by and large industrialization reigns here, and that seems likely to continue for a good while. Development and lifting people out of poverty trumps all other considerations.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:33:57

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
Fairfax, VA: How do you feel the real estate market there now? Do you think the bubble there is more serious than US?

eter S. Goodman: There are a lot of worries about a bubble here, particularly at the high end of the market. I really don't know the US market, so I'll steer clear of comparisons. But there are worries that so much is being built here that it will eventually lead to empty places, losses and more bad loans. At the same time, there is enormous demand for new housing, so the building boom could have a long way to go.
_______________________
China: Dear Mr. Goodman: During your journalism career in China. Do you have ties to the senior party officials and will their opinion influence yours, when it comes to reporting?

eter S. Goodman: If only I had such access that their influence on my reporting was a worry! We make enormous efforts to get access to inner circles and it is hard going: Such access is tightly restricted. From where I sit, more information and acess is always good for journalism. I'm a long way from getting coopted.
_______________________
Arlington, VA: Hi Peter, I've read reports that China is making a concerted effort to build up the North Eastern provinces, Liaoning, Jilin, etc. Is this true? Which countries would invest there - Germany? Russia? Thanks.

eter S. Goodman: You hear correctly. The northeast, China's Rust Belt, where Mao chased visions of insutrial grandeur, at first with Soviet help, is now among the worst off areas of the country, with millions of people laid off by bankrups state factories. It's grim. But there is now an initiative to get investment in there.

Cenger 发表于 2005-11-15 09:34:46

<a href="http://washpost.com/wpnihomepage?nav=globetop" target="_blank" ><IMG src="https://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/globalnav/images/twp_logo_feb.gif" border=0></A>
Rosemead, California: Do the Chinese plan to do something about the filthy air in Beijing in time for the 2008 Olympics?

eter S. Goodman: Much underway, with many of the worst polluters -- coal-fired power plants -- forced to move out of the city. Also a push to accelerate usage of natural gas.
_______________________
Munich, Germany: There were many people, 20 years ago, that thought that by now, Japan would have succeeded the U.S. as the most powerful national economy on earth. Back in those days, it was thought that it would take China an additional 30 years, 50 years total, to reign supreme in international business and manufacturing.
While I've read that China's emergence as the foremost economic power is almost inevitable, do you see any hiccups within the next few years that could potentially change this outcome?

eter S. Goodman: Lotta hiccups, yes. It's fashionable now to debate whether China can keep growing and become a superpower or whether it will hit a crisis. I don't think they are mutually excusive. I don't think there's any doubt that China's force in the global economy is here to stay. I also think it's inevitable that China will stumble at some point. External forces could trigger a crisis -- an oil shock, a sharp drop in demand for its exports from Europe or the US. Internal forces, maybe -- a bursting of the potential real estate bubble, a banking crisis. But China is such a huge economy, its own domestic market growing considerably, that it does seem certain to keep developing one way or the other.
_______________________

eter S. Goodman: Well, we've more than run out of time and still I've hardly put a dent in the pile of questions. Apologies to those whose questions sit unanswered. I hope we'll do this again. And many thanks for paying attention to what is a really important story. Best wishes.

dashizihou 发表于 2005-11-15 19:48:48

excellent , thx , aothor for the very good article

vinely 发表于 2005-11-15 20:36:28

wonderful,good reading text

kevin 发表于 2005-11-16 09:22:05

to read over such a longgggggggg article really need ur patience, for the font is too small to read, my eyes r aching...
hope do some modification...[em07]

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