Tumbling oil prices look set to hit electric cars and biofuels harder than other parts of the green power industry, the head of the world’s leading renewable energy agency has warned.

国际可再生能源机构(International Renewable Energy Agency，简称Irena)总干事阿德南•阿明(Adnan Amin)警告说，比起绿色能源产业其他部门，油价暴跌对电动汽车和生物燃料行业产生的冲击看来会更大。国际可再生能源机构是一家政府间机构，也是全球顶尖的可再生能源机构，其总部位于阿布扎比。

That is because they compete directly with rivals such as petrol-fuelled cars that are becoming cheaper to run as oil prices fall.

这其中的原因在于，它们直接竞争的对手，是那种用汽油做燃料的汽车，而油价暴跌后这种车会变得更便宜。

But wind farms, solar plants and other renewable electricity generators should not be affected by the price plunge because they do not face anything like the same level of competition, said Adnan Amin, director-general of the International Renewable Energy Agency, Irena, an intergovernmental body based in Abu Dhabi.

阿明表示，不过风力发电场、太阳能发电厂和其他可再生发电厂应该不会受到油价暴跌的影响，因为它们面临的竞争与上述两者不可同日而语。

“We don’t see a direct impact of oil prices on power generation,” said Mr Amin, explaining oil-fired electricity plants only accounted for around 5 per cent of global power generation today.

阿明表示：“我们并未发现油价对可再生发电有什么直接影响。”他还解释说，燃油发电厂所发电量只占如今全球发电量的5%。

“Impacts we expect to see are in the production of liquid biofuels, investment in liquid biofuels and investment in electric mobility and hybrid mobility,” he said on the sidelines of the agency’s annual assembly in Abu Dhabi over the weekend.

上周末，在Irena阿布扎比召开的年度大会会场外，他说：“我们预计会看到的影响是在液体生物燃料的生产和投资方面，以及电动汽车和混合动力汽车的投资方面。”

Mr Amin conceded the rapid decline in oil prices was creating uncertainty for the renewables industry and may be followed by some falls in the cost of gas, which could pose more of a problem for wind and solar power generators.

阿明承认，油价下跌为可再生能源产业带来了不确定性。他还承认，油价下跌后天然气价格可能也会有所下跌，这会为风力发电和太阳能发电带来更多问题。

But he was bullish about the overall outlook for the sector, which he said had changed comprehensively since Irena first began operating four years ago.

不过，他对该产业的总体前景感到乐观。他说，自Irena四年前开始运营以来，可再生能源产业已发生彻底改变。

“There is a qualitatively different sense today about the potential of renewable energy, especially in power generation,” he said, pointing to dramatic falls in the cost of many forms of renewable electricity, especially solar panels.

根据Irena的数据，2013年可再生能源占全球总发电量的22%，占全球最终能源消耗总量的19%。其中，后者除了包括发电以外，还包括取暖和交通运输方面的能源消耗。

Solar panel prices have dropped 75 per cent since 2009 and the total installed costs of big, utility-scale solar plants have fallen by as much as 65 per cent between 2010 and 2014, according to Irena.

然而，这一19%的比例自2011年以来几乎没有变动过。2011年，联合国支持下一项名为“人人享有可持续能源”(Sustainable Energy for All)的行动倡议曾经提出，要在2030年以前，把可持续能源占全球能源组合的比例提升一倍。

That has prompted some eye-catching deals, even in the oil-rich Middle East.

Irena创新与科技部门主管多尔夫•吉伦(Dolf Gielen)表示，该比例每年的增长幅度只有0.2个百分点，而它需要每年增长1个百分点才行。

Dubai’s government-owned utility recently awarded a contract for a new solar power plant to a group led by Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power that will sell electricity for less than 6 US cents per kilowatt-hour.

自2011年以来，风力发电、太阳能发电及其他形式可再生能源占全球新增发电量的比例约为50%。

“That is at least 2 to 3 cents cheaper than current generation from gas in Dubai,” said Mr Amin.