Oil's Big Players Have an Edge

If oil-industry executives were stars on reality TV, right now they would be making the jump from 'Joe Millionaire' to 'Survivor.'

The price of Nymex crude oil has fallen from a high of $145 a barrel in July to below $64 today. From the perspective of oil producers, however, the drop is far worse.

Paul Sankey, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, reckons that some smaller, mature onshore U.S. fields need a price of about $80 a barrel to meet their running costs. In effect, they have seen their profit drop from $65 a barrel at the market's peak to less than zero.

Such oil producers are small in the grand scheme of things. But every producer has to cope with the fallout of the rapid collapse in crude-oil prices, twinned with the crunch in financial markets. As a result, investors need to focus less on growth and more on survival prospects.

'Until two months ago, money wasn't a differentiator in this business,' says Robin West, chairman of PFC Energy, a consultancy. 'Now it is.'

The relative performances of Chesapeake Energy and Exxon Mobil this year illustrate the point perfectly. Until early July, Chesapeake was on a tear, with its stock up almost 80%. Exxon's had fallen 7%.

Chesapeake, however, was dependent on liquid capital markets and strong energy prices to make its bet work on unconventional gas resources. Since then, its stock has dropped 63%, the company has slashed spending plans and it now looks vulnerable to a takeover.

Exxon, in contrast, is only down 24% from that point. It benefits from net cash of $30 billion, twinned with a rare triple-A credit rating.

In addition, lower oil prices hurt Exxon less than they do the small-capitalization names that have outperformed in the past few years. Exxon's portfolio is more diversified and lower cost. Crucially, investors never gave it the full benefit of the doubt on commodity prices anyway.

On the plus side, falling energy prices ought to take the heat out of industry cost inflation.

If sustained, the slide might also help roll back some of the resource nationalism that has blocked off access to new reserves.

Well-capitalized companies also can take advantage of the current market panic to snap up assets and companies trading at fire-sale prices, another route to increase production and reserves.

Panic also has left the majors looking relatively cheap. Using Mr. Sankey's 'low case' estimates -- average oil price falls to $50 and the weighted average cost of capital rises to 15% -- Exxon is trading at 10.6 times 2010 earnings per share.

Longer-term, the oil industry still faces big strategic problems, not least in terms of public relations. But it isn't likely to disappear anytime soon.

如

果石油业高管出演真人秀，现在他们参加的节目可能要从“乔百万”(Joe. millionaire)变成“幸存者”(Survivor)了。

纽约商交所原油期货价格已从7月份时每桶145美元的高点回落至如今的64美元以下。不过，从石油开发商的角度看，这种下跌更加糟糕。



Reuters

埃克森美孚在美国德州的炼油厂



德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师保罗·桑吉(Paul Sankey)判断，美国一些规模较小的成熟陆上油田需要每桶油价保持在80美元左右才能实现盈亏平衡。实际上，它们眼睁睁看着利润从市场高峰时的每桶65美元降到了亏损的境地。

这些石油开发商或许无关大局。但所有开发商都需要应付原油价格快速下跌产生的后果以及金融市场危机的压力。因此，投资者需要少关注些增长，多关注些生存的前景。

能源咨询公司PFC Energy的董事长罗宾·威斯特(Robin West)说，就在两个月前，该行业中的资金还不是问题，但现在已经不同了。

Chesapeake Energy和埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)今年的相对表现可以完美的说明这点。直到7月初时，Chesapeake还表现优异，股价上涨了约80%。而埃克森美孚则下跌了7%。

不过，Chesapeake依赖于资本市场的高度流动性和强劲的能源价格，这样才能确保其非常规天然气资源的开发。从那以来，该公司股价下跌了63%，该公司已削减了支出计划，现在可能面临被收购的命运。

而埃克森美孚从那以来只下跌了24%。300亿美元的净现金，加上难得的AAA信用评级，都令该公司受益不少。

此外，石油价格下跌对埃克森美孚的打击要小于那些过去几年里表现更好的小型公司。埃克森美孚的业务组合更加多元化，而且成本也更低。至关重要的是，投资者从未让该公司获得商品价格上涨的好处。

从另外一面来说，能源价格的下跌应该会令该行业的成本膨胀热有所降温。

如果油价持续下跌，也会在一定程度上有助于消除资源民族主义情绪，这种情绪阻挡对新储备的开发。

资本充足的公司也能利用目前市场恐慌的时机收购资产和股价低廉的公司，这也是增加产量和储备的另一途径。

恐慌也令这些石油巨头的股价显得相对更低了一些。如果采用桑吉的“低端”估算──平均油价跌至每桶50美元，资本加权平均成本上升至15%──则埃克森美孚基于2010年每股预期收益的市盈率为10.6倍。

从中长期看，石油行业仍面临巨大的战略问题，更重要的是还有公共关系的问题。这在近期内不会消失。