This year marks another milestone in the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It has now reached 400 parts per million, and the rate of accumulation continues to rise. The experience of the past few years suggests that normal politics and diplomacy are unlikely to solve the problem of climate change. Only one thing is guaranteed to solve it: technological advance.

今年，大气中二氧化碳的积累达到了又一个里程碑式的高度。大气中二氧化碳的浓度如今已达400ppm，而且积累的速度还在持续加快。过去几年的经验表明，一般的政治与外交手段不太可能解决气候变化问题。只有一种方法可以确保解决这一问题：技术进步。

We can do this. To defeat the axis powers, the allies developed the atom bomb. When threatened in the cold war, the US sent a man to the moon. When threatened by global warming, we surely need a similar effort to save the planet. The Manhattan and Apollo projects engaged the best minds of their ages from a few nations. But today the effort needs to be international.

我们能够做到这一点。为了打败轴心国，同盟国开发出了原子弹。当在冷战中受到威胁时，美国把人类送上了月球。在受到全球变暖的威胁时，我们肯定需要做出类似的努力来拯救地球。曼哈顿(Manhattan)计划和阿波罗(Apollo)计划汇聚了当时少数几个国家最优秀的人才。今天的努力则需要国际合作。

The project would need a clear aim – like the atomic bomb or a man on the moon. We suggest the following: to enable bulk electricity to be produced more cheaply by solar energy than by any fossil fuel. The scientific challenges involved in achieving this goal are great. They involve the collection of the energy, its storage and its distribution – often at considerable distances.

该计划需要一个明确的目标——就像“造出原子弹”或“实现登月”一样。我们提议的目标是：把太阳能大规模发电的成本降到任何一种化石燃料大规模发电的成本之下。要实现这一目标，科学上会面临巨大的挑战。这些挑战涉及能量的收集、储存与配送——往往需要跨越相当远的距离。

For endeavour to succeed, a timetable is essential. We would suggest 2025 as a target date for the plan. By then we should expect to see bulk solar electricity supplied commercially at an unsubsidised price on a 24-hour basis. A good target for then would be at least 1 gigawatt supplied to cities in America, Europe and Asia.

努力若想获得成功，就必须设定时间表。我们提议把2025年设为该计划的目标日期。届时，我们应该能够看到，每日可24小时大规模商业化供应太阳能电力，而且是以没有补贴的价格供应。一个不错的目标是，届时供给美、欧、亚洲城市的太阳能发电功率至少达到1吉瓦。

All G20 countries would be invited to join in this research project. Membership would be voluntary, but the participation of the US and China would be crucial, and they would play leading roles. Each country that joins the project should spend the money on research and development at home but within the context of an internationally agreed work plan. Nations should finance the project in whatever way they want. To match the spending on the Apollo project would require only 0.05 per cent of each year’s gross domestic product for 10 years from each G20 country.

20国集团(G20)的所有成员国都将受邀加入这一研究计划。各国可自愿加入，但美国与中国的参与将最为关键，而且它们将发挥领导作用。所有参与国都应投入资金在国内从事相关研发，但它们应遵循一套由国际社会共同达成的工作方案。各国应以任何自己愿意采取的方式资助该计划。要达到阿波罗计划的投资规模，每个20国集团成员国每年只需拿出国内生产总值(GDP)的0.05%，连续投入10年即可。

Why, you might say, concentrate on solar energy? We need a concentrated effort on one source that offers the clearest prospect of success. The collection of solar energy by photovoltaic cells becomes cheaper every day and is already nearly economic in sun-rich environments. Every continent includes areas of such environments. The cost of electricity distribution is also falling by the day. Storage is the most difficult challenge; breakthroughs in the basic science of batteries are necessary. They are, however, feasible.

你可能会问，为什么要专注于太阳能呢？答案是，我们需要把精力集中在一种能提供最明确成功前景的能源上。光伏电池收集太阳能的成本越来越低，在阳光充足的环境中，几乎已具备经济效益了。各个大陆都有这样的环境。电力配送的成本也越来越低。电力储存的挑战最艰巨；必须在电池基础科学上取得突破。不过，取得这样的突破是可行的。

This might seem like a tough sell, but the political economy problems of all other approaches are even more daunting. Clean coal requires a self-discipline on the part of nations that seems pretty implausible. Why would a country that is short of money spend more than it needs to when producing electricity from coal? And international quotas on emissions are difficult to agree upon, and even harder to stick to. The only mechanism we can completely rely on is the market – people will automatically buy clean energy if it is cheap enough.

该计划似乎很难推广，但其他种种计划带来的政治经济问题更加令人气馁。洁净煤要求各国做到自律，这似乎是不大可能实现的。一个缺钱的国家，为什么在燃煤发电时要投入额外的资金呢？此外，国际社会很难就碳排放配额达成协议，要遵守协议就更困难了。我们唯一能安全依赖的机制就是市场——如果清洁能源足够便宜，人们自然会购买。

So what are the obstacles to this proposal? There are of course strong vested interests in the oil and gas industry, especially in the US. They greatly limit the president’s ability to tax carbon or subsidise non-carbon energy. But science is surely a different matter; attacking the problem from this side gives him more freedom of manoeuvre.

那么，该计划的障碍是什么？当然包括油气行业的强大既得利益，在美国尤其如此。它们极大地限制了美国总统征收碳税或者补贴非碳能源的能力。但科学肯定就是另一件事了；从科学的层面来攻克这个问题会为美国总统提供更大的回旋余地。

Some ministries of finance may object, but there are at least two ways in which this could present them with no net cost. First, the project could be financed by a carbon tax. But, second, it could be financed out of the rest of the research budget. Under 10 per cent of public R&D expenditure in OECD countries is on energy research. Would some switch of research effort be that awful? Shouldn’t the world’s greatest problem have the first call on our research money? And shouldn’t it attract the best minds?

有些国家的财政部门或许会表示反对，但我们至少有两种方法能够让该计划不对它们构成净成本。首先，该计划可由碳税来资助。其次，也可把用于其他方面的研究预算转拨过来。经合组织(OECD)国家的公共研发资金，投入能源研究的不足10%。转移一下研究重心就那么困难吗？全球最严峻的问题不应该成为我们研发支出的重中之重吗？这个问题不应该吸引最优秀的人才吗？

This is a far more important issue than putting a man on the moon. It should attract as much attention – and, this time, the attention of every nation. Failure to solve this problem will affect every nation upon earth.

这个问题远比人类登月重要。它应该引起同等程度的关注，而且这一次每个国家都应给予关注。解决不了这个问题，将影响到地球上的所有国家。

The writers are, respectively, the former UK chief scientific adviser and the former founder-director of the LSE Centre for Economic Performance

本文作者分别是前英国首席科学顾问和伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)经济效益中心(Centre for Economic Performance)创始人、前主任