Policy makers at the US Federal Reserve were split over the merits of slowing its $85bn a month asset purchases in September, highlighting the difficult task facing Janet Yellen as she prepares to take chairmanship of the central bank.

美联储的政策制定者们在9月份减缓每个月850亿美元的资产购买规模有何益处的问题上产生分歧，这凸显出珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)在准备就任美联储主席之际面临的艰巨任务。

The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee, published yesterday, will give investors little clarity on what economic conditions would trigger a taper, at a time of mounting concern over political gridlock in Washington and the risk of a US default.

从昨日发布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)最新会议纪要，投资者难以厘清以下问题：在这个人们越来越担心华盛顿陷入政治僵局、美国有可能出现债务违约的时期，什么样的经济状况会促使美联储逐渐缩小量化宽松规模。

Markets were taken by surprise last month when the Fed chose to keep its purchases unchanged, prompting a rally in stocks and bonds, and flows of capital back into emerging markets.

仅仅在这份会议纪要公布一个小时之后，美国总统奥巴马(Obama)便正式提名耶伦为下届美联储(Fed)主席。奥巴马称耶伦是“美国最好的经济学家和政策制定者之一”。

“For several members, the various considerations made the decision to maintain an unchanged pace of asset purchases at this meeting a relatively close call,” is the closest the minutes come to showing the number who were ready to taper. Fed watchers had expected the minutes to shed light on the stance taken by Ms Yellen, who has been one of the strongest proponents of the ultra-loose monetary policy.

上个月，当美联储选择保持其资产购买规模不变时，整个市场沉浸在惊喜之中，股市和债市反弹，资金开始回流新兴市常在最新会议纪要中，最能显示出倾向退出量化宽松的人有多少的是这样一句话：“在数位成员看来，出于多方面的考虑，本次会议上维持资产购买规模不变的决定险些没能通过。”美联储观察人士原本以为这份会议记要能透露耶伦采取的立场——耶伦一直是超宽松货币政策最坚定的提倡者之一。

Since the FOMC meeting, several Fed policy makers have said they were ready to taper purchases in September, including board governor Jeremy Stein and Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto. But the minutes suggest the committee rallied around chairman Ben Bernanke and chose not to taper their purchases.

自FOMC这次会议以来，多名美联储政策制定者曾作出过表态，表示他们已做好了在9月份逐步缩小量化宽松规模的准备。这些人中包括美联储理事杰里米·斯坦(Jeremy Stein)以及克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长桑德拉·皮纳尔托(Sandra Pianalto)。然而这份会议纪要表明，该委员会团结在主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)周围，选择暂不退出量化宽松。

The no-taper side of the FOMC “viewed incoming data as having been on the disappointing side”, feared the effects of higher interest rates on housing markets and downgraded its economic forecasts.

FOMC中反对退出的一方“认为最新获得的数据一直令人失望”，担心提高利率会对楼市造成影响，并下调了经济增长预期。

Given those concerns, they said that “risk-management considerations called for a cautious approach and that, in light of the ambiguous cast of recent readings on the economy, it would be prudent to await further evidence of progress before reducing the pace of asset purchases”.

出于以上担忧，他们表示“基于风险管理方面的考虑，我们应慎之又慎。另外，鉴于最近的经济数据暧昧不明，比较谨慎的做法是等待看到形势改善的进一步证据再缩减资产购买规模”。

Those on the FOMC who wanted to taper thought that recent data were in line with guidance the Fed gave in June and worried about the market reaction. “Concerns were expressed that a delay could potentially undermine the credibility or predictability of monetary policy,” say the minutes. “It was noted that if the committee did not pare back its purchases in these circumstances, it might be difficult to explain a cut in coming months, absent clearly stronger data on the economy and a swift resolution of federal fiscal uncertainties.”

而赞成退出量化宽松的FOMC成员则认为，最近的数据符合美联储6月份给出的指导意见，他们担心市场对推迟退出量化宽松的反应。纪要中写道：“有人表达了这样的担忧，推迟退出量化宽松可能会削弱货币政策的公信力或者说可预测性。还有人指出，如果在当前形势下委员会仍然不削减资产收购规模，未来几个月再作出类似决定将很难解释，因为那个时候可能缺乏明显更强有力的经济数据以及对联邦财政不确定性的快速解决方案。”

The minutes offered a few hints on how the Fed will taper when it does, and the possibility of more forward guidance about future interest rates. Only a “few” of the 17 participants wanted to focus the tapering on US Treasuries, rather than mortgage-backed securities as well.

这份会议纪要还有几处暗示美联储退出量化宽松政策时将采取的做法，以及美联储可能对未来利率走向提供更具前瞻性的指引。17名与会者中，只有“少数人”主张在退出量化宽松政策时以削减美国国债购买量为主，而不是同时削减抵押贷款支持证券的购买量。

The FOMC weighed whether it should provide extra information about what the Fed will do when unemployment drops to 6.5 per cent. The Fed has said that as long as unemployment remains above this level it will not raise interest rates.

FOMC考虑过是否应披露更多有关失业率降至6.5%时美联储会怎么做的信息。美联储曾经表示，只要失业率高于这一水平就不会提高利率。