Brazil's central bank cut interest rates for the second straight month as growth slows and the country's economy faces inflation headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East.

因经济增长放缓，且受中东冲突影响，巴西经济面临通胀逆风，该国央行连续第二个月降息。

The bank's monetary committee, or Copom, cut the Selic benchmark lending rate to 14.5% from 14.75%. The monetary authority indicated that its future rate decisions remain unclear, given the uncertain impacts of the Iran war.

该行货币政策委员会将塞利克基准贷款利率从14.75%下调至14.5%。 鉴于伊朗战争影响的不确定性，货币当局表示，其未来的利率决策仍不明朗。

It said caution is needed so that "future steps of interest rate calibration can incorporate new information about the depth and duration of the conflicts in the Middle East, as well as their direct and indirect effects over time on the price level," Copom said.

货币政策委员会称，需谨慎行事，以便“未来利率校准步骤能够纳入有关中东冲突深度和持续时间的新信息，以及这些冲突对价格水平随时间产生的直接和间接影响”。

"This scenario requires caution from emerging market economies amid heightened volatility of asset and commodities prices," the central bank said.

巴西央行表示：“在资产和大宗商品价格波动加剧的情况下，新兴市场经济体需保持谨慎。”

In March, Copom cut rates for the first time in nearly two years.

今年3月，货币政策委员会近两年来首次降息。

Further rate cuts represent a dilemma for Brazil's central bank, as high borrowing costs threaten economic growth while sticky inflation limits its ability to ease monetary conditions. Its next rate decision is scheduled for June 17.

进一步降息对巴西央行来说是一大难题，因为高借贷成本威胁经济增长，而顽固的通胀又限制了其放宽货币条件的能力。 巴西央行的下一次利率决策定于6月17日。

Consumer prices rose 4.4% in the 12 months through mid-April, accelerating from 3.9% in the previous period, the country's statistical agency IBGE said Tuesday. The central bank targets 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points. Analysts surveyed weekly by the institution forecast inflation at 4.9% at the end of this year, with the coveted center of the range being reached only in 2029.

巴西国家地理统计局（IBGE）周二表示，截至4月中旬的12个月内，消费者价格上涨4.4%，高于前期的3.9%。 巴西央行设定的通胀目标为3%，容忍范围为1.5个百分点。 该机构每周对分析师进行的调查显示，分析师预计今年年底通胀率为4.9%，要到2029年才能达到目标区间的中心值。

Brazil's gross domestic product is forecast to expand 1.9% this year, slowing from 2.3% in 2025. Unemployment remains at a relatively low 5.8%.

预计今年巴西国内生产总值将增长1.9%，低于2025年的2.3%。 失业率仍处于相对较低的5.8%。

"Regarding the domestic scenario, the set of indicators continues to show, as expected, a trajectory of moderation on economic growth, while the labor market still shows signals of resilience," Copom said Wednesday.

货币政策委员会周三表示：“就国内形势而言，各项指标继续如预期般显示经济增长放缓，而劳动力市场仍显示出韧性迹象。”

The committee indicated that further cuts will depend, in large part, on how energy price increases stemming from the war in Iran will impact overall inflation.

该委员会表示，进一步降息在很大程度上将取决于伊朗战争引发的能源价格上涨对整体通胀的影响。

"The central bank is not only concerned now with the effects of an oil shock, but possible effects that higher input costs will have on the chain, on food prices," said Gustavo Sung, chief economist at Suno Research. He still believes a cut in June is more likely than not, "but it will depend a lot on the conflict," he said.

Suno Research首席经济学家古斯塔沃·宋表示：“巴西央行现在不仅担心石油冲击的影响，还担心投入成本上升对产业链、食品价格可能产生的影响。” 他仍认为6月降息的可能性较大，“但这在很大程度上取决于冲突局势”，他说道。

Lofty borrowing costs are taking a toll on consumers, said Camila Abdelmalack, chief economist at Serasa Experian, a São Paulo-based consumer and commercial credit reporting agency.

圣保罗消费者和商业信用报告机构Serasa Experian首席经济学家卡米拉·阿卜杜勒马拉克表示，高昂的借贷成本正给消费者带来压力。

The firm's corporate clients have reported that nearly 82 million Brazilians missed a payment on a loan or bill as of February, a historic high, as household budgets were squeezed by inflation and high interest rates.

截至2月，该公司企业客户报告称，近8200万巴西人未能偿还贷款或账单，创历史新高，原因是通胀和高利率挤压了家庭预算。

Central bank data indicate that defaults among individuals and corporations reached 4.3% of total outstanding credit in the financial system in March, rising one percentage point in 12 months.

央行数据显示，3月，个人和企业违约占金融体系未偿信贷总额的4.3%，12个月内上升了1个百分点。

"The average Brazilian has 74.6% of their income committed to paying debt," Abdelmalack said.

阿卜杜勒马拉克说：“巴西人平均收入的74.6%用于偿还债务。”

She expects monetary easing to take time. "We have a cautious view regarding interest rate cuts."

她预计货币宽松政策将需要时间。 “我们对降息持谨慎态度。”

The administration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has announced measures to reduce indebtedness, including a new debt renegotiation program. Analysts warned that it could have the side effect of fueling consumption and, as a result, reducing the chances of fast monetary easing.

卢拉·达席尔瓦总统政府宣布了减少债务的措施，包括一项新的债务重新谈判计划。 分析师警告称，这可能会产生刺激消费的副作用，从而降低快速放宽货币政策的可能性。

Rising government spending—which tends to intensify ahead of general elections scheduled for October—combined with price pressures stemming from the war in Iran, puts the central bank in a tough spot, she said.

她表示，政府支出上升（在定于10月举行的大选前往往会加剧）以及伊朗战争引发的价格压力，让巴西央行处境艰难。

Expectations for the year-end Selic rate have increased to 13% from 12.5% a month ago, in the central bank's survey.

在巴西央行的调查中，市场对年底塞利克利率的预期已从一个月前的12.5%升至13%。

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