And, we're off!

预算大幕，已然拉开！



This morning, the Chancellor confirmed she will deliver the Budget, her second, on Wednesday, November 26.

今晨，财政大臣确认将于11月26日（星期三）提交其第二份预算案。

Her first Budget last October was supposed to be a "let's-get-it-done-and-dusted" moment: an event where she set out all of the tax and spending decisions necessary to repair the government's finances and revive public services for the duration of this parliament.

去年10月，她的首份预算案本应是一个“一劳永逸”的时刻： 她将在此预算案中列出本届议会任期内修复政府财政、重振公共服务所需的所有税收和支出决策。

It hasn't worked out that way. As things stand, further tax rises of some description look inevitable.

但事与愿违。 就目前情况来看，某种形式的进一步增税似乎已不可避免。

Much will depend on the economic and fiscal forecasts the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) draws up in the coming weeks.

这在很大程度上将取决于预算责任办公室（OBR）在未来几周内制定的经济和财政预测。

The Chancellor hopes to persuade the OBR that announcements the government has made in the last year - planning reforms in particular - and the trade agreements struck with the EU, the US, and India, have materially transformed the UK's prospects.

财政大臣希望说服预算责任办公室，政府去年宣布的各项举措（尤其是规划改革）以及与欧盟、 美国和印度达成的贸易协定，已切实改变了英国的前景。

Movements on financial markets suggest investors are increasingly concerned about both the UK's economic position and the state of the government's finances.

金融市场走势表明，投资者对英国的经济状况和政府财政状况日益担忧。

The government spends more than it raises in tax - and has done for decades - so it has to borrow to pay for everything it wants to do. That leaves it dependent on investors being willing to lend.

政府支出超过税收收入——且数十年来一直如此——因此，政府必须借贷来支付其想做的一切事情。 这使政府依赖于投资者愿意出借资金。

There are still plenty of investors willing to lend to the UK, but they are charging more - despite five interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in the last year.

目前仍有许多投资者愿意向英国放贷， 但尽管英格兰银行去年五次降息，他们收取的利息却更高了。

There are a number of reasons why the government may be seen as a higher-risk borrower.

政府被视为高风险借款人的原因有多种。

Economic growth in the UK has been weak for many years, inflation remains above target, and the stock of national debt has ballooned - in large part due to the support extended to households and businesses during first COVID and then the energy crisis. More recently, the government failed to secure the welfare savings it had planned.

英国经济增长多年来一直疲软，通胀率仍高于目标水平， 国债存量大幅膨胀——这很大程度上是由于在新冠疫情初期和随后的能源危机期间向家庭和企业提供的支持所致。 最近，政府未能实现预期的福利节省。

The late timing of this Budget - almost a month later than last year's set piece - may be designed in the hope that the outlook will improve and market anxieties will cool.

这份预算案的出台时间较晚——比去年的预算案晚了近一个月——这可能是希望经济前景能有所改善，市场焦虑情绪能有所缓解。

But unless something miraculous happens, the Chancellor faces really tough choices.

但除非发生奇迹，否则财政大臣将面临极其艰难的选择。

Rachel Reeves continues to signal that the fiscal rules she wrote - which limit government borrowing and debt - are "ironclad," "non-negotiable," and "the bedrock" of her economic strategy.

瑞秋·里夫斯不断表示，她制定的财政规则（限制政府借贷和债务）是“不可动摇的”、“不容谈判的”， 是她经济战略的“基石”。

Independent analysts estimate the Chancellor will need to find an extra £20 billion to £40 billion a year to avoid breaking those rules.

独立分析师估计，财政大臣每年需额外筹集200亿至400亿英镑，才能避免违反这些规则。

The government has said it will not rethink the allocations it made recently in the spending review, and it is unclear how such a large hole in the public finances could be filled by tax rises without breaching manifesto pledges not to raise income tax, National Insurance, or VAT.

政府已表示不会重新考虑近期在支出审查中做出的分配决定， 且目前尚不清楚如何在不违反竞选承诺（不提高所得税、国民保险或增值税）的情况下， 通过增税来填补公共财政中的如此巨大缺口。

Borrow more, spend less, increase taxes. Something has to give. Prepare yourself for three months of feverish speculation - which, in itself, creates unhelpful uncertainty.

多借债、少支出、增税收。 总得有所取舍。 做好准备，迎接未来三个月的狂热猜测吧——而这本身就会造成不利的不确定性。

The situation is not catastrophic. Rachel Reeves does not face a Liz Truss-style reckoning, but it is serious.

情况并非灾难性。 瑞秋·里夫斯不会面临像利兹·特拉斯那样的危机，但形势确实严峻。

素材来源：iYuba