演讲题目：Will AI make us the last generation to read and write?

演讲简介：

科技正在以惊人的速度改变着我们的世界，也在改变我们的交流方式。创业者维克多·里帕贝利预计 AI 会在 2030 年之前推动音频和视频取代文本成为我们主要的交流形式。他畅想了一个世界，其中人人都可以创作出好莱坞电影，接受个性化教育或通过超逼真虚拟形象交流，仅需读一本书的时间。



中英文字幕

Your grandchildren will be the last generation to read and write.

你的孙辈们将是最后一代读书写字的人。

I know that sounds strange.

我知道听起来很奇怪。

Almost unthinkable.

几乎不可思议。

Text is everywhere around us.

文字无处不在。

We use it hundreds of times every single day and it's woven into the fabric of our daily lives.

我们每天都会用上几百次，文字已经融入了我们日常生活的一丝一缕。

But today, I'm going to make the case that humanity's relentless pursuit of better ways to convey ideas and preserve knowledge doesn't end with text.

但是今天，我要证明，人们不懈追求更好的表达想法、保存知识的方法并不止于文本。

I think we're at the dawn of a new era of AI-enabled communication,

我认为我们将迎来由AI赋能交流的新时代，

and I think that future generations will slowly replace text with more intuitive forms of communication, like audio, video,

我认为未来的后代会逐渐将文字用更自然的交流方式取代，比如音频、视频，

and eventually immersive technologies.

甚至是沉浸式技术。

And one day, I think we'll look back at reading and writing as historical artifacts, like we do with papyrus scrolls or hieroglyphs,

有朝一日，我们会把阅读与写作视为历史文物，就像我们眼中的纸莎草手卷、象形文字

or cave paintings.

或洞穴壁画。

Don't get me wrong, I love reading.

别误会我的意思，我喜欢阅读。

This is not a personal vendetta against text.

不是我对文字有私人恩怨。

Some of my fondest memories are walking around in my local library, back in Copenhagen like you see behind me here, picking out all kinds of books,

我最美好的回忆是在哥本哈根当地的图书馆漫步，就像我身后的图片，挑选各种各样的书，

mostly science fiction books, returning home to read them so I could go back there again and pick out the next set of exciting books to read.

主要是科幻小说，回家阅读，这样我就可以再回到那里，挑选下一批让我兴奋的书籍。

I loved disappearing into these worlds that were different than the physical world around me.

我喜欢消失在这些与身边物理世界不同的世界中。

And that, of course, only was amplified when I discovered the internet at around ten years old,

当然，当我十岁左右发现了互联网，这种爱好就更深了。

which opened up an entirely new world of ideas, of music and people.

它打开了一个全新的思想、 音乐和人的世界。

On the internet, information was free, and I saw firsthand how technology didn't just change the distribution of content,

互联网上的信息是免费的，我亲眼目睹科技不仅改变了内容的传播，还改变了内容本身。

it changed the content in itself.

它本身改变了内容。

The difference between a lively forum and a book is massive.

活跃论坛和书本的区别是巨大的。

A blog and a newspaper, and so on.

博客和报纸等等也是如此。

In music, which is my big passion outside of work,

音乐方面，这是我工作之余的最大爱好，

I saw how software instruments and sampling and drum machines gave birth to entirely new genres that had never been possible before.

我看到了乐器软件、采样器和鼓机如何催生出前所未有的全新流派。

And not only that, but all the people around the world making new, exciting music,

不仅如此，世界各地所有制作新的、令人兴奋的音乐的人。

If you're learning music theory, you will have an assistant that knows your skill level, knows your taste in music,

如果你在学习乐理，你将有一位了解你的技能水平、了解你的音乐品味，

and builds a curriculum around that.

并围绕这些信息定制课程的助手。

All of your kids maybe will have their favorite celebrities teaching them math in school.

也许所有孩子都会有他们最喜欢的名人在学校里教他们数学。

And they'll do it in a context that's interesting for your kid.

还是在你的孩子感兴趣的环境中。

Maybe that's soccer, or sci-fi, or whatever.

也许是足球、科幻小说等等。

Education is going to be turbocharged with these new AI systems.

这些新的AI系统将为教育注入活力。

Entertainment is going to change.

娱乐会改变。

It's going to be shaped by the viewers and by the world around them.

它将由观众和观众周围的世界塑造。

We'll probably have interactive films, we'll have TV series that never end.

也许会有互动电影， 会有不会结局的电视连续剧。

It sounds weird, but in many ways, this is what a social media feed is, right?

听起来很奇怪，但从很多方面来说，这就是社交媒体内容流，对吧？

It's just an endless story.

就是一个没有结局的故事。

Your TikTok feed is also an endless stream of personalized content just for you.

你的TikTok内容也是为你量身打造的，源源不断的个性化内容流。

And when we combine this with new form factors like AR, VR, brain-computer interfaces, media is increasingly going to appear like real life.

当我们将其与增强现实、虚拟现实、脑机接口等新形式相结合，媒体就会越来越像现实生活。

Maybe we'll be transmitting messages to our friends just via thought in the future, and our inbox is not going to be text,

也许以后我们只需要通过意念就能给我们的朋友发消息，我们的收件箱不再是文字，

it's going to be videos of all your friends' and your relatives' AI avatars talking to you.

而是亲朋好友的AI虚拟形象 与你交谈的视频。

It sounds weird, but I don't think it's that far off.

听起来很奇怪，但我认为并不遥远。

And I promise you that your fire safety video at work will be a Spielberg-esque masterpiece in the not so distant future.

我向你保证，在不久的将来，你工作中的消防安全视频将成为斯皮尔伯格式的大作。

These technologies open up a Pandora's box of questions.

这些技术打开了满是问题的潘多拉魔盒。

There's ethical questions, political questions, design questions, and there's commercial questions.

有伦理问题、政治问题、设计问题，还有商业问题。

And there are many speakers today sharing great viewpoints in those.

今天有许多演讲嘉宾分享了这些精彩观点。

I'll leave you with a few provocative questions.

我还想留下几个引人深思的问题。

Do you care if our content is AI-generated or not?

你在乎我们的内容是 AI 生成的吗？

Do you care when a film uses special effects or green screen?

你在乎拍电影用特效或绿幕吗？

Do we care that actors in commercials are paid to play someone else and endorse products that they've probably never heard of?

我们在乎广告演员收钱扮演他人，代言他们自己可能从未听说过的产品吗？

Do we care if actors are real or generated?

我们在乎演员是真实的还是生成的吗？

Are you a fan of Harry Potter or Daniel Radcliffe?

你是哈利·波特还是丹尼尔·雷德克利夫的粉丝？

Does it matter that Daniel Radcliffe exists in the real world?

丹尼尔·雷德克利夫是否存在于现实世界中重要吗？

You'll never meet him.

你这辈子都不会见到他。

Probably, right?

也许吧，对吗？

What about Mickey Mouse or Pixar characters?

米老鼠或皮克斯的角色呢？

Can we feel something for them despite them being AI-generated?

即使是AI生成的，我们会对他们有感情吗？

Will we trust AI agents, or do you still want to call the call center to speak to a human?

我们能信任AI智能体吗？或者你还是想打电话给客服中心，和一个人类对话？

Can we be entertained by computers interacting with each other?

我们可以通过计算机之间的互相交互得到娱乐吗？

Would you want to play computers, play soccer, or play chess against each other?

你想和人玩电脑、踢足球、下棋吗？

Maybe not.

也许并不。

The future is ahead of us.

未来就在我们眼前。

And while a lot of this sounds like sci-fi, it really isn't that far off.

虽然刚说的很多听起来像科幻小说，但其实并不遥远。

And it's up to all of us in this room and society to make sure that we build a really awesome future.

在座的每个人，社会中的每个人都有责任确保我们会建设 一个非常美好的未来。

I think we have the technologies and I think we have the people to do it.

我认为我们有技术，我们这些人也能够做到。

Thank you.

谢谢。