演讲题目：Lessons from history for a better future

演讲简介：

我们如何借助过去的经验教训，驾驭穿越当下与未来的动荡？社会哲学家罗曼·克尔兹纳里克指出，历史不仅仅是犯错的记录，它同样蕴藏着解决方案、复原力，以及激进的希望。



中英文字幕

Imagine you're standing on the old, wooden Nihonbashi Bridge in the ancient Japanese city of Edo, now known as Tokyo.

想象你正站在古老的日本桥上，这座著名的木桥位于古城江户（今称东京）。

It's around 1750, in the era of the Tokugawa shoguns.

时间大约在1750年， 德川幕府将军时代。

People are chatting.

画中一些人在聊天，

Laborers are pushing cartloads of rice.

劳工们推着一车车大米，

Seafood traders are rushing across to the fish market.

海鲜商贩正奔向鱼市。

Now Edo wasn't just remarkable for being a huge city of over a million people, far larger than London or Paris at the time.

江户之所以特殊，不仅因为它人口超过一百万，远远大于当时的伦敦或巴黎；

It also operated what we would today call a circular economy, where almost everything was reused, repaired, repurposed or recycled.

它的运作其实也是当今所谓的循环经济，几乎所有东西都被重复使用、修复、再利用或回收利用。

So Japan's policy of not trading with the outside world led to shortages of precious resources, like wood and cotton.

日本当时的锁国政策，导致了木材和棉花等宝贵资源的短缺，

So a tradition of patchwork developed, known as "boro," meaning tattered rags,

从而形成一种拼布的传统， 称为“褴褛”（boro），即破布，

where fragments of old cloth were sewn together into garments that were then passed on down the generations, just like the one I'm wearing,

就是将旧布碎片缝在一起，做成衣服，然后代代相传。就像我现在穿的这件，

which is over 100 years old.

已有 100 多年的历史了。

A kimono might be used until the cloth began to wear out, then turned into pajamas, then cut up into nappies,

一件和服，常会用到布料开始磨损为止，然后被改做睡衣，接着剪成尿布，

then used as cleaning cloths and finally burned as fuel.

然后再用作清洁布，最后作为燃料烧掉。

Edo had over 1,000 circular businesses, from collecting candle wax drippings to be remolded to down-and-out samurai repairing old umbrellas.

江户有 1,000 多家从事循环经济的商户，从收集并重铸蜡烛残蜡，到落魄武士修补旧雨伞的店铺。

Traders even paid for human waste, which was then sold as agricultural fertilizer.

商贩们甚至会购买人类排泄物，然后将其作为农用肥料出售。

Strict timber rationing rules were also introduced, to restore the nation's depleted old-growth forests.

政府还出台了严格的木材配给制，以恢复全国枯竭的原始森林。

This was one of the world's first large-scale examples of a low-waste, low-carbon ecological civilization.

这是世界上最早的大规模低废、低碳生态文明典范之一。

Now Edo Japan wasn't a utopia, having feudal and patriarchal inequalities, yet 300 years on,

然而，日本江户并非乌托邦，它也存在封建和父权制不平等。但300年过去了，

it offers hope that we can create economies today that are driven not by the chronic wastefulness and ecological blindness of consumer capitalism,

它仍为我们带来希望，今天创建的经济体系，可以不再由消费资本主义的长期浪费和无视生态所驱动，

but by a deep culture of sustainability.

而是由深厚的可持续发展文化所引领。

I mean, if we were to adopt the circular mindset of "Edonomics," we'd rapidly phase out the sale of products like standard smartphones,

就是说，如果采用“江户经济学”的循环思维方式，我们将迅速淘汰标准智能手机等消费产品，

which use over half the elements of the periodic table and are often discarded after less than three years.

因为它们使用周期表中超过一半的元素，而且通常不到三年就被丢弃。

And instead, we'd introduce regenerative standards so that the only phones permitted for sale would use recycled materials and be modular by design,

取而代之的，我们将引入再生标准，这样，所有获准销售的手机都必须使用回收材料制造，并采用模块化设计，

with easily replaceable screens and batteries.

屏幕和电池都易于更换。

I mean, wouldn't that be great?

那不是很棒吗？

And like many other historical examples, such as the ancestral circular economy in precolonial Hawaii,

正如许多其他历史先例一样，例如前殖民时代夏威夷的祖传循环经济等，

Edo shows that it's possible to combine radical sustainability with cultural flourishing.

江户的发展表明，激进的可持续发展与文化繁荣是可以并存的。

It gave birth to the artworks of Hiroshige, to the poetry of Basho, and to a thriving culture of sumo wrestling.

它催生了广重的浮世绘、芭蕉的俳句、以及蓬勃发展的相扑文化。

I mean, what's not to like?

说真的，这样不好吗？

Now why am I telling you about the economy of ancient Japan?

那么，我为什么要提起古代日本的经济？

Because it reveals how history is one of our most undervalued resources for thinking about the future of humanity,

因为它揭示了历史其实是最被低估的宝贵资源之一，我们应该借鉴历史来思考人类的未来，

and we have vast amounts of the stuff to tap into.

尤其是大量的历史资源，只待启用。

I mean, we're in an age of polycrisis, from a climate emergency to risks from AI and threats to democracy.

我们正处在一个多重危机时代，从气候危机到 AI 风险再到对民主的威胁。

History can help us navigate our way through the turbulence, acting as a counselor rather than as a clairvoyant.

历史可以帮助引导我们穿越风暴，充当我们的导师，而非预言家。

But, you know, with my background as a political scientist,

但是，作为政治学家，

I've become increasingly frustrated by the way that our politicians and policymakers remain trapped in the tyranny of the now,

我越来越感到挫败的是，我们的政治家和决策者，被当下的紧迫性牢牢束缚住，

driven by the latest opinion poll, or hoping that new technologies will come to our civilizational rescue.

只顾及最新的民意调查，或指望新兴技术能拯救我们的文明。

They are failing to see that in order to go forwards, we'd be wise to look backwards.

他们未能意识到，为了前行，明智的做法是回顾过去。

As we journey towards tomorrow, let us be guided by the Maori proverb, "I walk backwards into the future with my eyes fixed on the past." In fact,

在我们迈向明天之时，让一则毛利谚语来引领我们：“我倒着走向未来， 目光始终注视着过去。”

In fact, I invite you all to repeat it out loud after me, in Maori.

这样，请大家跟着我用毛利语大声重复一遍。

So here we go, as loud as you can.

准备好，请放声朗诵。

Me first.

我先念一遍。

Absolutely brilliant, thank you all so much.

太棒了，非常感谢大家。