Does Vladimir Putin use Botox? And is Gazprom’s capital spending ($44bn last year) money poured down a black hole? These are two great mysteries of modern Russia. At least minority shareholders in Gazprom can gaze on the Russian president’s indescribable grin to form their own conclusion upon the first question.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)打肉毒杆菌了吗？俄罗斯天然气工业公司(Gazprom)的资本支出（去年为440亿美元）资金被投入黑洞了吗？这是当代俄罗斯的两大谜题。Gazprom的少数股股东如果凝视一下普京那难以言表的微笑，至少会就第一个谜题得出自己的答案。

The second – about their own company, the world’s biggest gas producer – will tax them much more. Shares in Gazprom change hands on the Moscow market for 2.8 times forward earnings. This for a company that earned more last year than any other in the world (not counting taxes, interest, depreciation and amortisation). The valuation implies that shareholders are not optimistic that the capital spending will produce great returns.

第二个谜题与他们自己的公司、全球最大的天然气生产商Gazprom有关，要就这个谜题得出答案则困难得多。在莫斯科上市的Gazprom的预期市盈率是2.8倍，而该公司去年未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利(EBITDA)比全球其他任何公司都高。这种估值表明，股东对该公司资本支出能否获得巨额回报并不乐观。

And so to the agreement that Gazprom has, at last, forged to sell gas to the Chinese. The deal covers at least 38bn cubic metres of gas a year for 30 years. With the $400bn value for the deal as given by Gazprom, this suggests a price of $350 per thousand cubic metres. That is attractive relative to China’s other options of buying gas overland from Myanmar and Central Asia, or in liquefied form from overseas.

Gazprom最终敲定的对华售气合同也是如此。该合同规定，Gazprom将在30年的时间里每年至少对华供应380亿立方米天然气。按照Gazprom给定的4000亿美元合同价值计算，每立方千米天然气的价格是350美元。相对中国的其他选择来说，比如购买从缅甸和中亚经陆路输入的天然气或购买跨海而来的液化天然气，该价格是有吸引力的。

Look past the price for a moment, and try to estimate capex. Citi comes up with $70bn over the next 15 years to exploit virgin gasfields and to construct the Power of Siberia pipeline. The latter alone could run to $30bn. The overall bill could be $55bn, Mr Putin says. China may help to fund $20bn of that through prepaying for gas.

我们先把价格搁在一边，来试着估计一下资本支出。花旗(Citi)给出的估计数字是，未来15年开发原始气田和建设“Power of Siberia”管道的费用将达700亿美元。仅后者一项就可能需要300亿美元资金。普京表示，整个项目的费用可能高达550亿美元。中国可通过支付天然气预付款来帮助提供200亿美元资金。

Still, big. And yet, as Citi notes, the $70bn or more of Gazprom capex would not be wasted if China’s contract is at the other end – generating cash and, potentially, bringing further China deals in its wake, such as LNG sales. That may be reassuring. But three decades is a long time. China’s demand for gas can only increase, although Beijing could seek to renegotiate pricing along the way.

剩下的资金仍是一笔不小的数目。然而，正如花旗指出的那样，如果与中方达成的合同履行得极其顺利——带来现金收入以及可能的后续合同，比如向中方销售液化天然气的合同——Gazprom支出的700亿美元资本就不会打水漂。这种可能性或许能给人带来一些安慰。但30年是很长的时间。中国对天然气的需求只会增长，但北京方面可能会在整个过程中不断寻求重新就定价展开谈判。

Meanwhile, Rosneft and Novatek snap at the heels of Gazprom’s export monopoly. Will Mr Putin smile on them in time?

与此同时，俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)和诺瓦泰克公司(Novatek)正在努力打破Gazprom在天然气出口方面的垄断。普京最终会对他们微笑吗？