Slowing Russian Growth Brings State-Aid Pledge

2008年11月19日

President Dmitry Medvedev warned that the crisis gripping Russia's banks and capital markets has spread to the real economy, and pledged to use the Kremlin's still-vast oil wealth to provide more aid for stricken industries.

The comments, his frankest on the subject yet, came as the World Bank cut its growth forecast for Russia next year by more than half because of the country's acute dependence on oil prices. The bank said it expects the ruble to keep softening as it tracks oil prices lower.

'It's not a question of if; it's a question of how it will happen,' Zeljko Bogetic, the World Bank's chief economist in Russia, said of the ruble's decline. Russian officials have ruled out a sharp devaluation but have increasingly hinted that the currency could be allowed to weaken slowly.

The ruble has fallen 5% against a dollar/euro basket since August, and Russia's central bank allowed it to weaken by 1% last week, triggering speculation that it will be allowed to slowly shed value.

The financial crisis hit Russia later than it hit the West, gaining momentum only when oil crumbled. Since May, Russia's two leading stock indexes have shed about 70%. Some wealthy Russians have lost billions of dollars on paper.

The construction, real-estate, and financial-services sectors were the first to suffer, but until now the government has insisted large parts of the real economy were insulated. Mr. Medvedev said that is no longer the case.

He said the government is willing to keep using its reserves, the third-largest in the world, to boost liquidity and bail out troubled industries, but it has yet to decide on a final figure for its bailout package. So far, it has pledged more than $200 billion.

The World Bank said it expects Russia's economy to grow 6% this year and 3% in 2009. Its estimates are based on an annual average crude-oil price of $101.5 a barrel in 2008 and $74.5 a barrel in 2009. On Tuesday, oil prices were hovering at just over $50 a barrel.

Lidia Kelly

俄

罗斯总统德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)警告说，俄罗斯银行和资本市场的危机已经蔓延到了实体经济，他保证会动用俄罗斯政府依然庞大的石油财富向遭受池鱼之灾的各产业提供更多救援。

这是梅德韦杰夫迄今为止在金融危机问题上发表的最坦率言论，他做出此番表态前世界银行(World Bank)刚刚将其对俄罗斯明年经济增长率的预期值调低了一半以上，理由是这个国家的经济状况严重依赖油价。世行表示，随着油价不断走低俄罗斯卢布将持续处于疲软状态。







Landov

俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫（右）周二在Izhevsk的

一家工厂表示金融危机正在损害俄实体经济



世界银行驻俄罗斯的首席经济学家波捷提克(Zeljko Bogetic)谈到卢布下跌时说，这不是个会不会的问题，而是个如何发生的问题。俄罗斯官员虽然排除了卢布急剧贬值的可能，但却越来越多地暗示说，可能会允许卢布缓慢贬值。

自今年8月以来，卢布兑美元/欧元一篮子货币的汇率已经下跌了5%，而俄罗斯央行上周更是允许卢布一举贬值1%，这使人不禁猜测，卢布可能被允许缓慢贬值。

俄罗斯遭受金融危机打击的时间比西方国家要晚些，只是在油价大幅下跌后它才明显感受到金融危机的影响。自5月份以来，俄罗斯两大主要股指已下跌了约70%。一些俄罗斯富豪的帐面损失高达数十亿美元。

虽然建筑、房地产和金融服务业是最先遭受金融危机打击的行业，但直到此前俄罗斯政府还坚持说，该国大部分实体经济都没有受到金融危机的影响。而梅德韦杰夫则表示情况已不再是这样了。

他说，政府愿意不断动用规模居世界第三位的外汇储备来增加流动性，救助陷入困境的产业，不过救助资金的最终数额尚未确定。俄罗斯政府迄今为止承诺的救助资金额已超过2,000亿美元。

世界银行表示，它预计俄罗斯经济今明两年将分别增长6%和3%。世行是基于2008年和2009年全年原油平均价分别为每桶101.5美元和74.5美元这一预期做出上述预测的。而周二的油价只略高于每桶50美元。