Everyone has a favourite way of telling when bubbles are forming. Tried-and-tested examples include when Japanese groups buy golf courses, when new media buy old and when banks rush to lend to the uncreditworthy. Now Thailand is adding its own: when the country’s largest convenience store owner undertakes the biggest domestic deal to date buying the country’s largest cash and carry operator. Betting on Thailand’s rising income levels is one thing. But paying $6.6bn – an aisle-busting 53 times last year’s earnings, or 44 times expected 2013 profits – is just too much.		每个人都有自己最喜欢的方式来判断泡沫正在形成。久经验证的例子包括：日本集团收购高尔夫球场、新媒体收购老牌媒体，以及银行争先向信用不佳者放贷。现在泰国也贡献了自己的方式：该国最大的便利商店所有者发起迄今最大一笔国内交易，拟收购该国最大的现购自运经营商。押注泰国日益增长的收入水平是一回事。但支付66亿美元（相当于去年利润的53倍、2013年预期利润44倍的惊人价格）实在是太多了。
CP All, the buyer, operates 7-Eleven stores. Rising income levels, including a doubling of the minimum wage in the past two years, and still-low store penetration have helped its shares treble in three years. That pales next to Siam Makro, the target, whose shares have risen sixfold. CP All says buying Siam Makro will help it showcase and distribute Thai produce in Southeast Asia. Yet the target’s expansion plans are still largely in Thailand.		买家CP All是便利店7-Eleven的经营者。不断提高的收入水平，包括过去两年最低工资水平翻倍，以及目前仍较低的店铺覆盖率，推动其股价在三年里翻了3倍。这在其收购目标万客隆(Siam Makro)翻了6倍的股价面前相形见绌。CP All表示，收购万客隆将有助于其在东南亚展示和分销泰国农产品。然而其收购目标的扩张计划基本上仍在泰国。
Better instead to consider the deal as adding a distribution channel for CP Group, the unlisted vehicle of Dhanin Chearavanont, a Thai billionaire whose interests range from chicken farming to shrimp processing and, most recently, a 15.6 per cent stake in Ping An. His companies hold 44 per cent of CP All. That does not make this deal better, but it helps explain why the company is prepared to take on some $6bn in debt, shifting the combined group from net cash of $1.3bn to net debt worth seven times last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.		倒不如把这笔交易看做是谢国民(Dhanin Chearavanont)为其未上市的正大集团（CP Group，中国以外称“卜蜂集团”）新增分销渠道的做法，这名泰国亿万富翁的业务范围包括养鸡和加工虾，最近又购得中国平安保险(Ping An) 15.6%的股份。他旗下的公司拥有CP All 44%的股份。这并不使这笔交易更好，但有助于解释为何这家公司愿意承担大约60亿美元的债务，将合并后的集团从13亿美元净现金，转变为背上7倍于去年扣除利息、税项、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)的净债务。
Dealmaking in Thailand is unlikely to cool. The top three outbound bids came in the past 18 months – two of them involving Mr Dhanin – and banks are dying to lend. The bidders should hope this one marks the apogee in valuation terms.		泰国的交易撮合不太可能降温。排名前三的境外收购案均发生在过去18个月内，其中两个都与谢国民有关，而银行都在抢着发放贷款。竞购者应当希望这笔交易标志着估值顶点。