Profits at China’s listed banks are poised to grow by less than 10 per cent in 2014, for the first time since at least 2005, in the face of a slowing economy, financial reform and the challenge from internet newcomers, say analysts.分析师们表示，中国各上市银行2014年利润增长将不到10%，这将至少是自2005年以来的首次，原因包括经济增长放缓、金融改革以及互联网新竞争者构成的挑战。

Chinese state-controlled banks have had high government-guaranteed profits for years, because of strict controls on lending and deposit rates that have helped fund China’s booming investment-led growth at a high cost to savers. 中国的国有控股银行多年来坐享由政府保障的利润，得益于政府对贷款和存款利率的严格管制。这种模式以牺牲储户利益为代价，帮助为中国投资拉动型高速经济增长融资。

Now interest-rate liberalisation and new entrants into China’s savings sector – from shadowy wealth-management products to the online money-market products from Alibaba and others – are eroding the margins that traditional banks can earn. 如今，利率市场化以及中国储蓄领域的新进入者——从影子银行业的理财产品，到阿里巴巴(Alibaba)等企业提供的在线货币市场产品——都在侵蚀传统银行的利润率。

May Yan, banks analyst at Barclays, is forecasting an average high single-digit rate of growth for net profits in the banking sector this financial year. Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, has forecast 8.3 per cent, while Luo Yi of China Merchants Securities expects 9.4 per cent growth. 巴克莱(Barclays)银行业分析师颜湄之(May Yan)预测，中国银行业本财年的平均净利润增幅将达到较高的个位数。交通银行(Bank of Communications)首席经济学家连平预测的利润增幅为8.3%，而招商证券(China Merchants Securities)的罗毅预测的增幅是9.4%。

Ms Yan said many of the banks did not consider the online arrivistes such as Alibaba’s Yu’E Bao, or “leftover treasure” – which is rapidly becoming a popular substitute for traditional bank deposits – a big threat. 颜湄之表示，许多银行并不认为来自互联网领域的新进入者——如阿里巴巴的“余额宝”——是一个很大的威胁。余额宝正迅速成为替代传统银行存款的一种热门存钱形式。

Many expect to beat the challenge by introducing their own internet-based money market funds. 许多银行期望借助自己将要推出的网上货币市场基金击退挑战。

“Banks face pressure from rising costs of deposits due to rate deregulation and disintermediation,” she said. “银行面临着存款成本上升的压力，原因是利率市场化和去中介化，”她表示。

“While the impact of higher funding rates in the interbank market, the proliferation of wealth management products and the nascent internet finance sector are likely to put pressure on banks’ interest margins, they are seen as having a limited impact on the broader economy in the near term.” “尽管银行间市场融资利率较高、理财产品层出不穷、以及新生的互联网金融部门等因素可能对银行的息差造成压力，但人们认为这些因素在短期内对整体经济的影响有限。”

China’s wealth products industry faced its first big test last week, when ICBC, the country’s biggest state-run bank, signalled that it would not stand behind a dud $500m issue that was distributed through its branches, in a move likely to make Chinese savers think twice about the safety of such products. 中国的理财产品行业上周面临第一场重大考验。中国最大的国营银行——中国工商银行(ICBC)发出信号表示，它不会为一只当初通过该行的分行销售、如今陷入困境的5亿美元信托的投资者兜底。此举很可能会让中国的储户重新考虑此类产品的安全性。

Net profits at China’s biggest banks have grown at more than double-digit percentage rates since the first of them listed in 2005, buoyed by a balance sheet clean-up that involved the sale of billions of dollars of bad loans, and by large capital injections from the government. 中国各大银行自2005年陆续走上上市之路以来，迄今年年实现两位数的净利润增长。这些银行在上市前得到资产负债表清理的提振，包括出售巨额不良贷款和获得政府大笔注资。

The banks helped fuel the country’s economic growth – also at double-digit percentage rates – by state-directed lending, particularly since the 2008 global financial crisis. 这些大银行通过政策指令性贷款（特别是自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来）帮助推动了中国经济的两位数增长。

However, China is changing direction amid slowing growth, less state-directed investment and a programme of reform for the financial sector and state-owned enterprises. 然而，中国经济正在转向：经济增长放缓，政府主导的投资减少，另外还制定了一套针对金融业和国有企业的改革方案。