“You take the high road, and I’ll take the low road…” Two of the west’s biggest retailers have swapped emerging market strategies. Last week, Tesco threw in the towel on its attempts to go it alone in China and formed a joint venture with China Resources, a local rival. This week, Walmart threw in the towel on its joint venture in India and decided instead to go it alone.

“你走你的阳关道，我走我的独木桥……”两大西方零售商互换了它们在新兴市场的策略。上周，乐购(Tesco)放弃了在中国单打独斗的尝试，转而与本土竞争对手华润(China Resources)成立合资企业。这周，沃尔玛(Walmart)终止了在印度的合资企业，决定自己单干。

Yes, the circumstances are different. Tesco is groping for a business model that works, and joint ventures have been successful for the company elsewhere in Asia. Walmart is responding, in part, to regulatory restrictions. But the basic problem is the same. There are huge opportunities in both countries, but they are proving hard to exploit.

没错，两者情况不同。乐购谋求一种可行的商业模式，该公司在亚洲其他地方的合资企业已获得成功。沃尔玛则在一定程度上是回应监管限制。但基本问题是一样的。两个国家都有巨大机遇，但都证明很难善用这些机遇。

Neither operation adds much to the parent’s investment case. Walmart’s 20 wholesale stores in India are just 0.2 per cent of the group total store count. Even in China it has just 400 stores. Only 2 per cent of Tesco’s stores are in China. Even if the two companies manage to get it right in China and India, and even if they can combine rapid growth with an acceptable profit margin, the day when these countries make a meaningful contribution is a long way off.

两项业务都没有大幅增强母公司的投资理由。沃尔玛在印度的20家大卖场只是该集团总门店数的0.2%。即使在中国，沃尔玛也只有400家门店。乐购只有2%的门店在中国。就算这两家公司在中国和印度的营运模式选对了，就算它们能够结合快速增长与过得去的利润率，要等到这两个国家为其业绩做出有意义的贡献，还有很长的路要走。

There is little to indicate that shares in Tesco and Walmart come with an emerging-market growth kicker. Tesco, with all its overseas exposure, is on 11 times forecast earnings. Rival Sainsbury, which has a UK-only strategy, is on 12. On the other side of the Atlantic, globally spread Walmart trades on 14 times, level with domestically focused Kroger and Target.

几乎没有迹象表明，乐购和沃尔玛的股票得到了新兴市场增长前景的提振。拥有可观海外业务的乐购股价的预期市盈率为11倍。其固守英国的竞争对手Sainsbury则达到12倍。大西洋另一边，遍布全球的沃尔玛的股价的预期市盈率是14倍，与专注本土市场的Kroger和Target持平。

Wider distaste for emerging markets is partly to blame. The MSCI emerging markets index has underperformed the S&P500 over one, three and five years. So bold moves into these markets, however good the prospects, are unlikely to go down well. That leaves the likes of Tesco and Walmart to either get out entirely, and admit they cannot turn the potential of China and India into sustainable profits, or fiddle with the model until they find something that works.

这在一定程度上可归咎于投资者对新兴市场的普遍厌恶。摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)新兴市场指数在1年、3年和5年期间的表现均逊于标普500指数。因此，无论前景多好，大胆进入这些市场不太可能提振股价。这意味着，像乐购和沃尔玛这样的公司，要么全身而退，承认无法将中国和印度的潜力转化为可持续的盈利，要么就换换模式，直至找到可行之路。