Renminbi forwards hit a record high on Monday after China’s central bank signalled it would tolerate further appreciation against the dollar and strong manufacturing data spurred hopes of a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

人民币远期汇率周一升至创纪录高位，此前中国央行发出信号表明，它将容许人民币对美元进一步升值，同时强劲的制造业数据令人对全球第二大经济体走向复苏产生期待。

The People’s Bank of China fixed the midpoint for trading in the renminbi at a record high of 6.1475 to the dollar, compared with Friday’s fix of 6.1557.

中国央行将人民币兑美元汇率中间价定在1美元兑6.1475元人民币，而上周五的中间价是1美元兑6.1557元人民币。

The move, which followed a two-day holiday, reflected the dollar’s weakening after the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay tapering of its stimulus programme. But it also underlined Chinese authorities’ commitment to reforms that will drive steady appreciation in the renminbi – despite the competitive challenge posed by recent weakness in the yen and the currencies of other Asian trade rivals.

此举在两天休假结束之后做出，反映了美元在美联储(Federal Reserve)决定推迟缩减量化宽松刺激方案后走低。但它也突显中国官方致力于推行改革，而这些改革将会稳步推动人民币升值——尽管日元和亚洲其他贸易对手的货币近期疲软带来了竞争性挑战。

The renminbi, which has risen 1.9 per cent against the dollar since the start of the year, hit a two-week high of 6.1160 to the dollar in spot markets, before easing to close unchanged from Friday. Twelve month non deliverable forwards hit a high of 6.1860 to the dollar – a record, although one that still implies investors pricing in depreciation of about 1 per cent over the next year.

自今年初以来相对于美元升值1.9%的人民币，在即期外汇市场触及1美元兑6.1160元人民币的两周高位，随后有所回落，收盘与上周五持平。12月期无本金交割远期合约(NDF)报价达到1美元兑6.1860元人民币的创纪录高位，尽管这仍意味着投资者在价格中计入人民币将在未来一年里走低大约1%。

With strict capital controls and a system that pegs the renminbi to a basket of currencies, China has not been directly affected by the recent turbulence in emerging market currencies.

中国实行严格的资本管制，并将人民币汇率与一篮子货币挂钩，有鉴于此，中国没有受到近期新兴市场货币汇率动荡的直接影响。

With a run of strong economic data alleviating fears of a rapid slowdown, analysts say the renminbi has been supported by a turnround in investor sentiment that led to capital inflows to China in August, after outflows the two previous months.

随着一连串强劲的经济数据缓解了人们对于中国经济急剧放缓的担忧，分析师们表示，人民币得到投资者情绪改观的支持。在前两个月出现资本外流之后，8月份中国再度出现资本净流入。

Evidence of the manufacturing pick-up in a major export market also boosted the Australian and New Zealand dollars on Monday. The Aussie – often viewed as a proxy for investors to bet on Chinese growth prospects – gained 0.6 per cent to $0.9456 against the dollar, while the kiwi rose 0.2 per cent to $0.8383.

一个重大出口市场制造业出现起色的证据，周一也提振了澳元和新西兰元。往往被视为投资者押注中国增长前景风向标的澳元走高0.6%，至1澳元兑0.9456美元。新西兰元走高0.2%，至1新西兰元兑0.8383美元。

However, Zhiwei Zhang, economist at Nomura, warned that despite the six-month high in manufacturing growth, China’s recovery might not be sustainable beyond November, when he expected the government “to shift its focus away from the speed of growth, towards efforts to rebalance the economy and improve the quality of growth”.

不过，野村证券(Nomura)经济学家张智威警告，尽管制造业增长达到六个月高点，但中国的复苏也许过了11月就难以维持，他预期届时中国政府“将把注意力从增长速度转向其它努力，包括推动经济再平衡和提高增长质量”。