Japanese voters have given their prime minister and his ambitious economic reform plan a boost as Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic party won a majority in Japan’s upper house elections.

安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的自民党(LDP)在参议院选举中赢得多数席位，标志着日本首相和他推行的雄心勃勃的经济改革计划得到了日本选民的认可。

After two decades of lacklustre growth, “Abenomics” – Mr Abe’s plan to jolt Japan’s economy back to life – continues to shake things up. Trillions of yen in fiscal stimulus and the Bank of Japan’s commitment to double the monetary base have paid dividends. Consumer confidence, despite a dip last month, remains close to a six-year high. The Nikkei 225 share average is up more than 60 per cent over the past eight months.

在日本经济持续20年不景气之后推出的“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)——安倍的日本经济复苏方案——不断产生颠覆性效果。巨额财政刺激以及日本央行(BoJ)誓让基础货币翻番的承诺奏效了。消费者信心指数尽管在上月略有下降，但目前仍接近六年来最高点。日经225指数(Nikkei 225)在过去8个月中已累计上涨逾60%。

Can the success last? Mr Abe’s strong position suggests it can. His LDP-led coalition already held a supermajority in Japan’s lower house of parliament and now has a working majority in the upper house, giving the prime minister firm control of the legislative agenda. Short of a crisis, Mr Abe need not face elections before 2016. Such time to press forward with reform is a priceless asset in a country that has seen 15 prime ministers in 20 years.

目前的成功能否持久？从安倍的强势地位来看是可以的。自民党领导的执政联盟已经在国会众议院占据绝对优势，现在又在参议院获得过半议席，因此，日本首相牢牢地控制着立法议程。只要不出现危机，安倍在2016年之前都不再面临选举压力。在一个20年里换了15任首相的国家，有这么长的时间能够推行改革是一笔无价的财富。

The most critical tests await. Some in Japan want a more assertive foreign policy and Mr Abe must resist any temptation to boost his popularity with actions that antagonise the country’s neighbours. Japan’s strength will come from the power and dynamism of its economy, its innovations, companies, workers and consumers, not from a more defiant diplomatic posture.

最关键的考验还在后面。日本有些人希望政府采取更强硬的外交政策，而安倍必须抵御这样一种诱惑：做出一些将激怒邻国的举动、以提高支持率。日本的力量来源于日本经济的实力和活力、它的创新能力、企业、员工和消费者，而不是来源于火药味更浓的外交姿态。

In particular, constructive relations with China are crucial. As we saw during anti-Japanese protests and boycotts there last autumn, the greatest threat that Beijing poses for Japan’s resilience is not around contested islands, but inside China, where Japanese companies are working to build market share, despite the Chinese government’s tendency to allow anti-Japanese anger to flare whenever it is politically useful.

需要特别指出的是，建设性的日中关系对日本非常关键。如去年秋天中国的反日抗议和抵制日货运动所示，中国政府对日本复苏的最大威胁不在于围绕争议岛屿的争端，而在于中国国内。尽管中国政府会出于政治目的放任国内反日情绪滋长，但许多日本企业正努力在中国争取市场份额。

Yet Mr Abe has taken the first steps to build a “mutually beneficial strategic partnership” with China. In June Shotaro Yachi, Mr Abe’s special adviser, secretly visited Beijing. Even more promising, Mr Abe’s government confirmed the meeting a few days later. These were the first publicly acknowledged high-level talks since last year’s war of words over a dispute in the East China Sea. Dialogue matters – and improved relations with Beijing are critical for Japan’s economy and Mr Abe’s reform drive. Some fear that, with elections out of the way, Mr Abe will adopt a more nationalist approach to foreign policy at the expense of the next delicate stages of Abenomics. We see evidence that he will avoid this mistake.

然而，安倍迈出了第一步，提出与中国建立“战略互惠关系”。今年6月，安倍特别顾问谷内正太郎(Shotaro Yachi)秘密访华。更让人欣喜的是，安倍政府几天后确认了这次会晤。自去年双方围绕中国东海岛屿争端发生口水战以来，这是首次得到公开承认的高层对话。对话很重要，与中国改善关系对日本经济以及安倍的改革步伐很关键。有人担心，随着选举的压力不再，安倍将采取更具民族主义色彩的外交政策，而对安倍经济学接下来的微妙阶段造成损害。我们已经看到一些迹象，表明他会避免犯这个错误。

Another promising sign: Mr Abe has overcome domestic resistance to bring Japan into talks on membership in the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership . Once finalised, the TPP would provide Japanese businesses with enhanced access to other member countries, including the US, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Australia and others. It would strengthen Tokyo’s security ties with Washington. It would also increase foreign pressure that Mr Abe can use to help sell the need for continued reforms to Japan’s economy.

另一个令人鼓舞的迹象是：安倍顶住了国内阻力，带领日本加入美国发起的《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》(TPP)谈判。一旦敲定，TPP将给予日本企业更大的成员国市场准入权，包括美国、加拿大、墨西哥、智利、澳大利亚等国。这将加强日本与美国的安全纽带，还能增强安倍可以利用的国外压力，以此兜售继续改革日本经济的必要性。

The greatest test for Abenomics will come from the prime minister’s ability to take on Japan’s long-term structural challenges. First, there is the debt problem. Mr Abe has promised to honour his predecessor’s pledge to halve Japan’s primary budget deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product by March 2016. Mr Abe understands that stimulus must come first, but spending cuts cannot wait forever if his government is to keep Japan’s borrowing costs manageable.

安倍经济学面临的最大考验是，他是否有能力应对日本的长期结构性挑战。首先，日本存在债务问题。安倍承诺践行前任的许诺，到2016年3月把基本预算赤字与日本国内生产总值(GDP)之比降低一半。安倍明白，首先要推出财政刺激，但如果安倍政府想要控制住日本的借款成本，就不能无限期地拖延减支。

Second, Mr Abe has also passed on opportunities to make it easier to fire full-time workers – and, therefore, to hire new ones – which would ease the flow of labour from underperforming industries to more productive economic sectors. He has asked Japanese companies to raise wages, commit to greater domestic investment and keep operations in Japan, but he has not reduced corporate taxes to help them compete more effectively at home and abroad.

其次，安倍错失了使企业更容易解雇全职员工、并由此能够雇佣新员工的机遇。如果抓住了这些机遇，日本劳动力将更容易从表现不佳的行业向生产力更高的经济部门流动。他要求日本企业提高工资，承诺增加国内投资，继续留在日本国内经营，但他没有降低企业税负，来帮助企业更加有效地在国内外竞争。

Does Mr Abe have the political will to stay the course with this agenda? That remains to be seen. But as this weekend’s election results show, Abenomics has already boosted confidence in a revival of Japan’s potential, a prerequisite for passing the tougher tests to come.

安倍有足够的政治意愿一以贯之地执行当前议程吗？这仍需拭目以待。但上周末的选举结果表明，安倍经济学已经增强了日本重振潜力的信心，这是通过未来更严峻考验的前提。

That’s the best news so far.

这是目前为止最好的消息。