Whenever President Hosni Mubarak actually steps down, the swirl of events in Egypt makes clear that his era – disfigured by stagnation and political degradation – is over. The army looks to be easing him off stage.

The regime’s failure to break the morale or momentum of the protesters, who burst on to the streets calling for regime change after last month’s implosion of the Tunisian dictatorship, has made the departure of Mr Mubarak inevitable.

The proliferation of strikes across Egypt, and the decision of professional organisations to join the protest as it spreads from Cairo’s Tahrir Square to the siege of parliament and state media, was building up into an epic display of rebellion after Friday prayers.

The army said it would take the “necessary measures to protect the nation and support the legitimate demands of the people”. That could mean an old-fashioned coup, as vice-president Omar Suleiman warned on Wednesday – a threat that seems to have inflamed the uprising. More likely it means Mr Mubarak handing over the reins to Mr Suleiman, his former intelligence chief, or the supreme council of the armed forces.

US insistence that the regime must meet some of the demands of the protesters may have influenced the army, which depends on an annual American stipend of $1.3bn.

A democratic transition must begin now for Egypt to regain its stability. Mr Mubarak said his departure would open a vacuum that would be filled by chaos. His dictatorship, cloaked rarely by more than half a fig-leaf, has laid waste to institutional and political life in ways that could fulfil that prophecy. But this need not be so.

It is young, educated, networked and often secular democrats who have led these protests. But they, too, need a democratic transition that gives them time to mobilise their forces to compete with the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s best-organised opposition. The army, which has played a largely neutral role, should usher in a constituent process. That means immediately abolishing emergency rule; a council to modify the constitution and set new democratic rules; and a broad-based transitional government in which the forces for change see themselves reflected. Parliamentary and presidential elections should then follow.

This is a fraught moment. All revolutionary upheaval and transition from tyranny is. But it is a moment bursting with possibilities that could change the face of the Arab world.

无论胡斯尼?穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)总统实际上何时下台，埃及正在上演的一系列事件都已清楚表明，因经济停滞和政治退化而形象严重受损的“穆巴拉克时代”已经终结。埃及军方似乎正在安排他淡出舞台。

上月突尼斯独裁政权倒台后，埃及抗议者涌上街头，要求政权更迭。埃及现政权未能击垮抗议者的斗志或气势，穆巴拉克下台由此变得不可避免。

埃及全国各地普遍爆发罢工，专业组织决定加入抗议队伍，抗议活动从占据开罗解放广场扩展至包围议会和官方媒体，这一切仿佛正在蓄势，要在周五祈祷后形成一幕壮观的造反场景。

埃及军方已表示，它将采取“必要措施保卫国家，支持人民的正当诉求”。正如副总统奥马尔?苏莱曼(Omar Suleiman)在周三所警告的，这可能意味着传统意义上的政变——这一威胁似乎助长了当前的起义。但这更有可能意味着穆巴拉克将大权交给前情报局长苏莱曼或者武装部队最高委员会。

美国坚持要求穆巴拉克政权必须满足抗议者的某些诉求，这一坚持可能对每年依赖13亿美元美国援助的埃及军队产生了影响。

要恢复稳定，埃及必须从现在就启动民主过渡。穆巴拉克曾表示，他的下台将留下一个真空，为混乱制造空间。的确，穆巴拉克几乎毫无遮掩的独裁统治已经摧毁了埃及的制度和政治生活，让他的这一预言有可能成真。但这并不是必然的。

领导当前抗议活动的，是那些年轻、受过教育、上网而且往往是世俗的民主人士。但他们也需要一个民主过渡过程，让他们有时间动员自己的力量，与埃及最有组织的反对派穆斯林兄弟会(Islamist Muslim Brotherhood)展开竞争。迄今基本上扮演中立角色的军方应当开启一个制宪进程。那意味着立即废除紧急状态；成立一个修宪委员会，并确立新的民主规则；以及一个代表各派改革势力、基础广泛的过渡政府。随后应举行议会和总统选举。

眼下是一个动荡不安的时刻。所有革命性的剧变和摆脱专制的过渡都会经历这样的时刻。但这也是一个充满可能性、有望改变阿拉伯世界面貌的时刻。