Current account imbalances in the U.S. and China will shrink and maybe even disappear in the next few years, eliminating a threat to international economic stability, a former chairman of President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers posits in remarks set for delivery next month.

“Although natural market forces should resolve such imbalances without the need for specific government policies, the government actions in both countries have actually contributed to their persistence and prevented market forces from correcting the problem. That may be about to change,” Martin Feldstein, a Harvard University economics professor, said in an advance copy of remarks set for delivery at the Allied Social Science Associations annual conference.

The Commerce Department earlier this month said the U.S. current account deficit widened 3.2% to $127.2 billion in the third quarter, reflecting rising imports of consumer goods. Most of the current account balance is made up of trade in goods and services, but the broad measure of U.S. international transactions also includes transfer payments and investment income.

The U.S. deficit ─ and surpluses in China, Germany and other countries ─ has been a source of friction in international relations and a cause of concern as the U.S. only slowly emerges from a recession.

Feldstein said that while international negotiations have not resulted in any real commitments to shrink current account imbalances, progress will come as Americans save more, the federal budget deficit narrows, the dollar declines in value and China invests more domestically.

Feldstein imagines the U.S. national saving rate rising by 2% of gross domestic product and budget deficits declining to 3% of GDP from 8%, producing a combined saving rise of 7% of GDP.

“These assumptions about private and public saving may be too optimistic but they indicate that closing the U.S. current account deficit is potentially feasible,” he said.

Meanwhile, China is directing more investment internally spending more on health care, education and housing as it looks to raise living standards.

“If China reduces its national saving rate from the current 45% of [gross domestic product] to 40% without a corresponding fall in investment, the result would be to shift China from having a current account surplus to a current account balance or even a small deficit,” he said.

里根总统经济顾问委员会(President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers)前主席菲尔德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)断定，美国与中国经常账户的失衡规模将缩小，甚至在未来几年可能会消失，从而消除影响国际经济稳定的一大威胁。这是他下月发表讲话时所要表达的观点。

美国哈佛大学(Harvard University)经济学教授菲尔德斯坦下月将在美国社会科学联合会(Allied Social Science Associations)年会上发表讲话。在一份提前复印好的讲话稿里，他说，虽然市场的本能力量应该可以解决这些失衡问题，无需政府制定具体政策，但是中美两国采取的行动实际上帮了倒忙，让这个问题更加冥顽不化，也在一定程度上阻止了市场力量对该问题进行修正，不过这一点或许很快会有所改观。

美国商务部本月初曾表示，美国经常账户的赤字规模在第三季度扩大了3.2%，增至1,272亿美元，说明消费品进口规模不断增大。绝大多数的经常账户余额都是由商品和服务贸易构成，但美国对国际交易的计量标准十分宽泛，还包括转移支付和投资收入。

美国出现赤字，说明中国、德国和其它国家就会有盈余，这一直是国际关系产生摩擦的根源，也因为美国摆脱衰退的速度十分缓慢而引起关注。

菲尔德斯坦说，虽然国际谈判没有做出任何要减少经常账户失衡规模的实质性承诺，但随着美国人增加储蓄、联邦预算赤字收窄、美元贬值和中国增加国内投资等，美国经常账户的失衡问题会得到一定的解决。

菲尔德斯坦预计，美国国民储蓄率占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例将增加2%，预算赤字从占GDP的8%降至占GDP的3%，也就是说储蓄率占GDP的比例整体增加了7%。

菲尔德斯坦说，这些关于私人和公共储蓄的假设可能过于乐观，但这表明消除美国经常账户逆差是有一定可行性的。

此外，中国为提高人们的生活水平，正增加国内投资，在医疗、教育和住房方面加大开支。

菲尔德斯坦说，如果中国的国民储蓄率从占GDP的45%降至40%，而投资没有受到相应影响，那么中国就会从经常账户盈余向收支平衡过渡，甚至会出现小规模的逆差。