The earthquake that hit Sichuan province will only have a limitedimpact on China's economy, although disruption to agriculture in theregion might add to the nation's mounting inflation, analysts said.
The quake has damaged factories, buildings, roads and railways in regions of Sichuan.
"Itsimpact on China's economic growth will be temporary and limited," SunMingchun, an economist with Lehman Brothers said. "It should be muchless than that of the snowstorms in January and February which affectedlarger areas and lasted longer."
Analysts said theearthquake-stricken areas of Sichuan province and nearby Chongqingcontribute a relatively small proportion to the country's overalleconomy.
Sun said the areas accounted for 3.5 percent ofChina's gross industrial output in 2006 and their share of exports wasonly 1 percent.
JPMorgan Chase economist, Wang Qian, saidSichuan's industrial production was only 2.5 percent of the country'stotal, despite its rich natural resources and hydropower.
However,analysts cautioned the disaster will disrupt the supply of agriculturalproduce and power, and this might add to the inflationary pressure thecountry is facing.
China is now battling its worstinflation in a decade. Last month's consumer price index was 8.5percent, slightly lower than the 12-year-record of 8.7 percentwitnessed in February.
Sichuan's produces 6.1 percent ofthe country's agricultural output and 7.3 percent of the country'srice. It is also the biggest producer of hogs, 11.6 percent of thecountry's total, Wang said.
Analysts said the centralgovernment might loosen its tight monetary policy for post-disasterreconstruction. It could also easy credit control on investment ininfrastructure in the disaster-hit areas in the coming months. |
|