“Any price that can be affected by the market must be left to the market . . .” Hardly as snappy as Deng Xiaoping’s black or white cat. But, coming from the great Decision on China’s economic future, those words take the imagination far and wide. The Third Plenum, a top meeting of party brass, also promised to relax the one-child policy. Investors had best be cautious about Shanghai-listed Humanwell Healthcare. Its shares are 29 times forward earnings. It makes condoms.

“凡是能由市场形成价格的都交给市场……”这句话没有邓小平的“猫论”那么活泼利落。然而，作为关乎中国经济未来的《决定》中的话，它引发了广泛而深远的想象。作为党内高层的重要会议，三中全会还承诺将放松独生子女政策。投资者最好对在上海上市的人福医药(Humanwell Healthcare)采取谨慎态度。该公司股票的预期市盈率达到了29倍，而其产品是避孕套。

The idea of market pricing implies a few more post-Plenum trades than the rather iffy one that has been popular so far – buying Hong Kong-listed consumer stocks. Maybe the China of 2020 justifies the multiples being paid: a future where, after unpacking the double stroller (Goodbaby, share price 20 times forward earnings) and the infant formula (Biostime, 32 times) from the SUV (Great Wall Motor, 14 times), families endlessly trot around up-and-coming cities. Or not, if fertility remains below replacement rates.

比起目前这种受到追捧的相当不靠谱的交易——买入在香港上市的消费类股票，市场定价的观念意味着还有几类三中全会后的操盘方式。也许2020年的中国使一些股票目前如此高的市盈率合理：在那个未来，从运动型多功能车(SUV)（预期市盈率达14倍的长城汽车(Great Wall Motor)）上取下双人婴儿车（20倍预期市盈率的好孩子(Goodbaby)）和婴儿配方奶粉（32倍的合生元(Biostime)）的家庭将漫步在新兴城市中。抑或，如果生育率继续低于人口置换率，这种场景将不会出现。

That leaves the two-thirds of profits on China’s stock market that will now be exposed to market forces. It is easy to imagine them falling. But whatever else 2020s China will look like, it will probably still need more and cleaner fuel, for example. If PetroChina and Sinopec can set higher retail prices, refining margins benefit. A $1 rise per barrel in margin at Sinopec would boost earnings per share next year by 10 per cent, Nomura says. Ecological promotion and higher pricing also aid PetroChina’s natural gas unit. This already returned to profitability on recent price increases.

这将使中国股市三分之二的盈利暴露于市场力量的冲击。不难想象这些盈利将出现下跌。不过不论本世纪20年代中国的面貌如何，中国很可能仍需要更多、更清洁的能源。如果那时中国石油(PetroChina)和中国石化(Sinopec)能设定更高零售价，炼油的利润率将因此提升。野村证券(Nomura)表示，中国石化每桶利润率每提高1美元，次年每股盈利将提高10%。生态改善努力以及更高的定价还将有利于中国石油的天然气部门。近期涨价后，该部门已经恢复盈利。

This mostly assumes that “market” prices for commodities in China will rise. But it suggests more from the Plenum than goodies for consumers. Although if all this market pricing meets a still-closed financial system, watch out for higher inflation – and social instability.

这一切主要假定中国大宗商品的“市场”价格将会上涨。但它似乎表明，三中全会的意义不只是让消费者获益。不过，如果所有这一切市场定价机制却要面对一个依然封闭的金融体系，那就要小心出现通胀上扬以及社会不安定。