Job Losses Won't Cut It For Citi

2008年11月19日

Capital is key to Citigroup's future. And on that score, investors are still worried, even after the banking giant announced plans Monday to cut 50,000 employees.

For its part, Citigroup thinks its balance sheet is well positioned and its capital ratios equal or exceed those of peers. Chief Executive Vikram Pandit told employees that the bank's capital base is strong.

Granted, job cuts will reduce Citi's cost base, eventually boosting earnings. That should help increase equity, improving Citi's balance sheet.

But on broad-brush measures that don't risk-weight assets, the bank's balance sheet is still highly leveraged. Tangible assets, which don't include goodwill or intangibles, are 55 times the bank's tangible equity. J.P. Morgan Chase, by contrast, is 31.4 times, while Bank of America is 31.3.

Citi's leverage worries some investors. Furthermore, possibly making matters worse are proposed accounting-rule changes that, if adopted, will prompt banks in 2010 to bring some off-balance-sheet assets back onto their books.

Tangible assets rise to nearly 59 times tangible equity if Citi has to bring about $120 billion in credit-card assets back onto its books in 2010, as is likely. Citi also may have to consolidate some of the roughly $670 billion in mortgage assets currently held by off-balance-sheet vehicles.

If the bank had to consolidate just 20% of these mortgage assets, tangible assets would rise to about 63 times tangible equity. Citigroup thinks it is 'highly unlikely' it will have to bring back on book much of these mortgage assets. Even so, Citi needs to take more radical action to reduce its leverage. The job cuts are simply a step in the right direction.

David Reilly

资

本是花旗集团(Citigroup)未来的关键所在。花旗银行的这个问题仍然令投资者感到担忧，即便该行周一宣布了裁员5万人的计划。

从花旗集团来说，该行认为其资产负债状况良好，资本比率与同行不相上下或更 一筹。花旗集团首席执行长潘迪特(Vikram Pandit)也告诉员工银行的资本基础强劲。

当然，裁员能降低花旗的成本基础，最终提振收益。这还有助于增加股本，改善花旗的资产负债状况。

但如果不对资产进行风险加权评估，粗略来看，花旗集团仍留有较高的杠杆比率。花旗集团的有形资产（不包括商誉或无形资产）是该行有形净资产的55倍。相比之下，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)和美国银行(Bank of America)这一比例分别为31.4倍和31.3倍。

一些投资者对花旗集团的杠杆比例感到担忧。此外，会计准则的调整规划或许会令情况更加糟糕，如果调整会计准则，花旗集团2010年就得把一些表外资产移入表内。

如果花旗集团在2010年必须把大约120亿美元信用卡资产移入表内（这是可能的），那么该行有形资产与有形净资产的比例将接近59倍。花旗集团可能还得把当前表外工具所持有的大约6,700亿美元抵押贷款资产中的一部分合并入报表。

哪怕花旗集团被迫只合并这些抵押贷款资产的20%，该行的有形资产就将达到其有形净值的大约63倍。该银行认为，被迫将诸多抵押贷款资产移回表内是非常不可能的。即便如此，花旗集团也需要采取更多积极措施降低杠杆比例。裁员只不过是朝着正确的道路上迈出的一步而已。