Baidu, China’s biggest search engine, emerged as the newest threat to the country’s banking sector in late October.
中国第一大搜索引擎公司百度(Baidu，见上图)10月底时突然出招，成为了威胁中国银行业的最新力量。
Teaming up with an asset-management company, it offered an investment product, targeting an 8 per cent return and aiming to raise Rmb1bn ($160m). Within four hours, Baidu attracted more than 120,000 investors and hit the Rmb1bn mark.
百度与一家资产管理公司合作，发行目标收益率为8%的理财产品，计划募集资金10亿元人民币（合1.6亿美元）。在短短四个小时之内，百度就吸引到了超过12万名投资者，并实现了募资10亿元人民币的目标。
Relative to the Rmb105tn of deposits at Chinese banks, the Baidu fund is like a speck on a vast canvas. But it is just one of a series of developments – from online fund products to interest rate liberalisation – that are starting to change the face of Chinese banking. The competition for cash deposits is heating up, upending the certainties of the sector.
与中国银行业高达105万亿元人民币的储蓄规模比起来，百度的基金就像是“沧海一粟”。但这只是近期一系列变化之一——从线上基金产品到利率自由化——这些变化正在开始改变中国银行业的面貌。争夺现金储蓄的竞争日益白热化，银行业往日的经营确定性正在被颠覆。
For the past decade, banks were just about the only show in town for the country’s savers; the fund management industry was too small, the roller-coaster stock market too dangerous, and cross-border capital controls too restrictive.
过去十年中，中国的储户们除了银行之外几乎别无选择；基金管理行业规模太小，行情如过山车一般的股票市场风险太大，而跨境资本管制则过于严格。
The captive pool of cash made life easy for banks. They offered low deposit rates, often lower than inflation, and lent for nearly twice as much. The cushy margin accounted for as much as 90 per cent of profits.
无处可逃的大量资金使银行的日子异常轻松。它们只需提供很低的存款利率（通常低于通货膨胀率），而以高出近一倍的利率将资金贷出。这种轻而易举得来的利差收益在银行利润总额中的占比高达90%。
But Wen Jiabao, China’s former premier, signalled that this would not continue in one of his last public pronouncements last year. “Frankly, our banks make profits far too easily,” he said. “That means we have to break up their monopoly.”
但中国前任总理温家宝在他最后一次公开讲话中表示，这种局面不会长期持续。温家宝称：“坦率地说，我们的银行赚钱太容易。这意味着我们必须打破它们的垄断。”
Banks are being challenged on multiple fronts. Much attention has centred on the government pledge to allow more private capital into the sector. Peng Wensheng, an economist with China International Capital Corp, says Beijing wants “a competitive financial system composed of diverse financial institutions”.
目前银行在多个方面均受到挑战。政府将允许更多民间资本进入银行业的承诺引起了很大的关注。中金公司(CIC)经济学家彭文生表示，中国政府希望形成一个“由多元化金融机构组成的竞争性金融体系。”
Regulators have invited companies from across the spectrum to apply for banking licences and demand has been strong. Applicants include electronics retailer Suning and air-conditioner maker Gree. No new licences have yet been granted, but when they are, this new breed of non-state banks could shake up the sector.
监管机构邀请来自各个领域的企业申请银行牌照，市场对银行牌照的需求非常强烈。申请企业包括电器零售商苏宁(Suning)以及空调生产企业格力(Gree)。目前政府尚未颁发新的银行牌照，但当牌照真正发放之时，这批新的非国有银行可能撼动整个银行业。
For now at least, more significant are the technology companies muscling into finance in spaces where banking licences are not required.
至少就目前而言，更值得关注的是科技企业正在不需要银行牌照的业务领域发力，试图借此挤进金融行业。
Simon Gleave, Asia head of financial services for KPMG, says: “Everywhere in the world it’s difficult to set up new banks and the barriers to entry remain high. So I don’t think China will rush to open it up. What is much more likely is companies being allowed to do financial business in areas such as payments that were previously dominated by state institutions. That level of innovation should be encouraged. That’s where I see the biggest change likely to come.”
毕马威(KPMG)金融服务亚洲地区主管李世民(Simon Gleave)表示：“在世界上的任何地区，成立新银行都很困难，市场准入门槛仍然偏高。因此我认为，中国不会仓促放开银行准入。更有可能出现的情况是，政府允许企业在支付等领域从事金融业务，而此前这些领域的主导力量都是国有机构。这种程度的创新应该得到鼓励。这是我认为有可能发生最大变化的领域。”
Baidu followed on the heels of e-commerce giant Alibaba and Tencent, developer of the popular WeChat messaging app. Alibaba has been most successful, allowing users to put excess funds in their online payment accounts into money market funds.
百度追随了电商巨头阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和腾讯(Tencent)的脚步。腾讯开发了大受欢迎的聊天应用微信(WeChat)。阿里巴巴在金融领域的发展最为成功，该公司允许用户以在线支付账户中的多余资金投资货币市场基金。
In existence for six months, it has attracted 16m users. These online funds are far from being full-service banks, but they are slowly eating into banks’ deposit bases, their most important source of capital.
在成立以来的6个月里，阿里巴巴的基金共吸引了1600万名用户。此类线上基金与全能型银行尚有很大差距，但它们正在缓慢侵蚀银行的存款基础，而这是银行最重要的资金来源。
However, the biggest challenge facing banks is not new rivals from different sectors but other banks.
不过，当前银行所面临的最大挑战并不在于非金融行业出现了新的竞争对手，而在于其他银行的竞争。
To fight for deposits, banks have been issuing so-called wealth management products in large numbers. WMPs are deposit-like instruments, promising savers a return in exchange for locking up their cash for a short period, usually a month.
为争夺储蓄存款，银行大量发行所谓的理财产品。理财产品是类似于储蓄存款的投资工具，它向储户承诺一个预期收益率，作为将储户资金锁定一段较短时间（通常是一个月）的补偿。
But unlike ordinary bank accounts, there are no regulatory caps on the rates offered – they function like a segment of the banking sector with liberalised interest rates, with yields typically 100-150 basis points higher than bank deposits. So it is little wonder their growth has been phenomenal. From virtually nothing three years ago, they account for nearly 10 per cent of the biggest banks’ deposits and 15 per cent for smaller banks.
但和普通银行存款不同的是，理财产品所承诺的收益率没有监管上限——其运作就如同银行业中一个领域实现了利率自由化——其收益率通常较银行储蓄利率高出100至150个基点。因此，理财产品的增长如此迅猛也就不足为奇了。三年前理财产品的规模几乎为零，而今日其占存款规模的比重在大银行达到了约10%，在规模较小的银行达到了15%。
China Merchants Bank, a leading mid-tier bank, is a clear example. In the third quarter, its deposits grew just 0.3 per cent. Its WMP balance increased about 40 per cent year-on-year, according to Citi analysts. But as banks come to rely on WMPs, their cost of capital is rising.
中等规模银行中的领头羊——中国招商银行(CMB)就是一个鲜明的例子。花旗(Citi)分析师指出，今年第三季度该行的存款规模仅增长了0.3%，而其理财产品余额较上年同期增长了40%。但随着银行越来越依赖理财产品，它们的资金成本也在增加。
The search for cash is also pushing banks into risky areas. The most alarming trend is the growth of interbank funding, when banks borrow short-term cash from each other. Such funding is treated by regulators as risk-free capital. Banks then repackage the money as long-term loans.
对资金的追逐还促使银行进入风险更高的领域。最令人担忧的趋势是银行间借贷（即银行之间互相拆借短期资金）的增速。此类资金被监管机构视作无风险资金。银行则将其重新打包变成长期贷款。
Interbank exposures have more than tripled at midsized banks since 2008 and now form 21 per cent of their assets, says Mike Werner, an analyst at Bernstein Research. This “has led to higher credit, liquidity, interest rate and regulatory risks”, he says.
伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的分析师麦克•沃纳(Mike Werner)指出，自2008年以来，中等规模银行的同业拆借规模增长超过两倍，现已占到了其资产总额的21%。他表示，这“已导致了更高的信用风险、流动性风险、利率风险以及监管风险”。
A glimpse of the problems came in June when the central bank refused to inject expected funds in the money market over a period of two weeks. The result was a spike in interbank lending rates to double-digits and reports of distress at mid-tier banks.
今年6月，当中国央行在长达两周的时间里拒绝向货币市场注入预期资金时，问题就暴露了出来。央行此举导致了银行间拆借利率骤然升至两位数的水平，中等规模的银行报称资金吃紧。
The panic subsided when the central bank promised emergency liquidity but the message was clear. Long coddled by guaranteed interest rates, Chinese banks face more competition than ever. Easy profits are fast becoming a thing of the past.
当央行承诺紧急注入流动性以后，市场的恐慌情绪逐渐消减。但由此传达出的信号非常明确。中国银行业长期以来在稳定利率环境下养尊处优，现在则面临着前所未有的竞争。躺着就能把钱赚了的日子已经一去不复返了。
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