Copper production is rising at the fastest rate in a decade, prompting investors to bet on a price collapse. 目前，铜产量正以十年来最快的速度增长，投资者押注铜价将会大跌。

The price of the element is key for the profitability of the large mining companies such as BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Freeport-McMoRan, as well as for the economy of Chile, which derives more than one eighth of its GDP from the metal, and other countries such as Mongolia and Zambia. 对于必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、英美资源集团(Anglo American)和自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿公司(Freeport-McMoRan)等大型矿企的盈利水平，铜对国内生产总值(GDP)贡献超过八分之一的智利经济，以及蒙古和赞比亚等国而言，铜价都至为关键。

The inability of the world’s copper miners to boost production in response to soaring Chinese demand has been a key driver of the “supercycle” of high prices and bumper profits for the mining industry over the past decade. 世界各地的铜矿企业未能扩大产量以满足中国持续飙升的需求，是导致过去十年铜市经历“超级周期”的关键推动因素之一，期内铜价高企，矿业企业利润丰厚。

But that trend has recently reversed, as miners’ investments in new supply begin to bear fruit. 但这一趋势近来开始逆转，因为矿企投资增加供应的努力已开始见效。

Copper output in Chile, which accounts for a third of global supply, has been rising strongly in recent months, boosted by the expansion of Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine. Wood Mackenzie, a leading consultancy, expects 2013 to see the biggest percentage increase in global mine production since 2004. 近几个月来，智利铜产量（占全球供应量的三分之一）一直增长迅猛，主要受全球最大铜矿——埃斯康迪达(Escondida)的扩张推动。领先咨询公司Wood Mackenzie预计，2013年全球铜矿产量的百分比增幅将达2004年以来的最高值。

Copper prices last week fell to an eight-month low of $7,331 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange. 上周，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价跌至每吨7331美元的8个月低点。

The price of the metal, used in everything from electrical ­wiring to air conditioning units, is down 28 per cent from a record high in 2011. Nonetheless, almost all copper mines remain profitable at current prices, leading some to argue that prices could fall further. 铜价已较2011年创下的最高位下跌了28%。不过，在当前价位上，几乎所有铜矿均可维持盈利，有些人因此认为铜价将进一步下跌。铜可用于制造从电线到空调机的各种产品。

“A lot of the funds are ­beginning to see this situation where you’ve got a lot of supply finally coming through and demand is not looking that great,” said Richard Wilson, chairman of metals at Wood Mackenzie. Wood Mackenzie金属部门主席理查德•威尔逊(Richard Wilson)表示：“许多基金开始看到这种局面——最终会有大量供应进入市场，但需求量看来却没那么大。”

The increase in the supply of copper will be the focus of Cesco week, the major annual gathering of the copper industry, which begins in Chile today. 铜供应量上升将成为今日在智利开幕的铜业重要年度会议Cesco week的焦点。

It has helped to trigger a sharp increase in copper inventory, with stocks at LME warehouses almost tripling since October. 供应量上升导致铜库存激增，LME注册仓库的铜库存自去年10月以来已增加近两倍。

That has made many investors bearish: according to data on US contracts from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, investor positioning is the most bearish since 2009. 这让许多投资者看跌铜价：美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的美国合约数据显示，投资者的看空头寸已达到自2009年以来的最高水平。

Barclays, which has been one of the most bullish banks on commodity prices, said that the rise in supply marked the “end of an era for the copper bulls”. 此前最看好大宗商品价格的银行之一巴克莱(Barclays)表示，供应量上升标志着“铜牛市时代的终结”。

Nonetheless, traders believe the market may have become over-pessimistic in the short term as Chinese consumers, who account for 40 per cent of global copper demand, have become more optimistic in recent weeks. 然而，交易员认为，由于中国消费者近几周来更为乐观，市场可能对近期铜价过于悲观了。中国铜需求量占到全球的40%。

Stocks in warehouses around Shanghai – data closely watched by the market as an indicator of China’s need for copper – have fallen by some 50,000-100,000 tonnes in recent weeks, traders say. 交易员表示，近几周来，上海周边仓库的铜库存量大约减少了5万至10万吨。该数据受到市场密切关注，被看作一项反映中国铜需求的指标。