Financial markets eye new peaks, yet output is everywhere decelerating or shrinking. Contradictory as these phenomena seem, both may be traced back to the actions – and inaction – of central banks.

金融市场最近屡创新高，而全球各地经济都在放缓或下滑。尽管看来有些矛盾，但这两种现象的根源都可以归结为央行的作为与不作为。

Credit where credit is due: monetary policy makers have done more than most to halt the collapse of the world’s economies in 2008–09 and to help their recovery since. Very low interest rates and huge expansions of their balance sheets averted a worse credit crunch. But they have also caused a rising tide in asset prices reaching as far as emerging economies a world away from the sources of liquidity.

把信贷投放到该用的地方：为在2008年至2009年阻止全球经济崩盘并助力随后的复苏，货币政策制定者已倾尽全力。他们推行超低利率政策，并且大幅扩张央行的资产负债表，从而避免了更严重的信贷危机。但他们同时推动了资产价格上涨，最终导致新兴经济体流动性匮乏。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high this week; more than catching up with losses racked up during the financial crisis. The DJIA is a flawed index but its recovery is shared with other, more representative measures of equity performance, both in the US and elsewhere. A Martian observer of stock markets might be forgiven for thinking all must be well with the earth’s economies. But little of investors’ exuberance is reflected in core economic data.

道琼斯工业平均指数(DJIA)不但收复了金融危机期间的全部跌幅，而且在本周创下历史新高。道指虽存在缺陷，但其他更具代表性的股市行情指数（美国和其他地区）也出现回升。如果一位火星的股市观察家认为，地球经济形势肯定非常不错，那么他可能会被原谅。但投资者的欢欣鼓舞几乎没有在核心经济数据中得到体现。

Central bankers’ goal was never, of course, to inflate new asset bubbles but to give rapidly deflating economies a powerful shot in the arm. Tragically, the side-effects – asset valuations – have responded more enthusiastically than the ultimate object (in reality if not in name) of improving growth. The US and the UK ended the year stagnant; the eurozone and Japan in renewed recession; the emerging world slowing down. There is some hope in the US, where housing has turned a corner. Change is coming to Japan, where the new brooms at the central bank have vowed to kill deflation for good and seem to mean it. But in Europe little good news is in sight, unless one counts the suspension of the eurozone’s self-immolation. While the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have taken extraordinary measures, the sad fact is that these have not been enough.

当然，央行的目标从来不是吹起新的资产泡沫，而是对迅速收缩的经济实施强力刺激。可悲的是，其负面效果（资产估值上升）要比提振增长的最终目标（实际上存在这样的目标，即使名义上没有）来得更为猛烈。美国和英国在去年底陷入停滞；欧元区和日本再度陷入衰退；新兴世界正在放缓。美国还有一些希望，该国的房地产市场已触底反弹。日本开始改弦更张，该国新任央行行长誓言要永久性地消灭通缩，而且他的话似乎是认真的。但在欧洲，目前几乎看不到任何好消息，除非有人把欧元区暂停“玩火自焚”算做一个好消息。尽管英国央行(BoE)和欧洲央行(ECB)采取了非常规措施，但遗憾的是，这些措施的力度还不够。

The ECB, in particular, cannot be satisfied with convincing markets it will not let the euro disintegrate. Its interest rate remains higher than it needs to be. Disturbingly, private-sector credit conditions, tepid throughout the eurozone, vary widely from one country to another. The ECB has reined in sovereign bond spreads; it must now work harder on the private sector equivalent: a severe credit crunch in the periphery but a cash glut in the core.

尤其是，欧洲央行不可能满足于让市场相信它不会让欧元区解体。利率仍高于实际所需的水平。令人担忧的是，不同国家私营部门的信贷状况（整个欧元区都很不妙）存在巨大差异。欧洲央行限制了主权债券息差的扩大；它现在必须在私营部门领域做出更大努力：在外围国家正出现严重信贷紧缩之际，而核心国家却资金过剩。

The UK holds high hopes for “funding for lending”, the latest prod to banks to lend. A modest example of fiscal-monetary co-operation, this clever structure rewards banks with cheap funding if they expand their loan book or do not cut it too much. Yet real improvement has yet to materialise: overall lending fell in the last quarter.

英国对“贷款融资计划”(funding for lending)寄予厚望，这是刺激银行放贷的最新利器。这一安排很明智，是财政政策与货币政策适度合作的一个实例。它的好处在于，银行能在扩大贷款规模或不想过度收缩贷款时获得廉价资金。然而，目前还没有实质改善的迹象：去年最后一个季度，总贷款规模有所下滑。

Central banks’ challenge is a banking system that acts as a brake on the money creation they carry out. The ECB does not have powers to respond; the BoE is only now obtaining them. Both rely on government action. Central banks must act – but also press governments harder to play their part.

央行的挑战是它们所执行的货币创造职能受到当前银行体系的制约。欧洲央行没有权限进行反制；英国央行目前正在获得此权限。两家央行都依赖于政府行动。央行不仅必须行动起来，而且必须更积极地推动政府发挥其作用。