Australia's treasurer touted the latest budget as reform-focused and the most ambitious in a generation. Economists hope that he is proven right.

澳大利亚国库部长将最新预算案誉为“以改革为核心”，是“一代人以来最具雄心”的预算案。 经济学家们希望他的这一判断能被证实是正确的。



Calls for Australia to pursue concerted economic reform to lift flatlining productivity growth and falling living standards stretch back decades.

呼吁澳大利亚推行协调一致的经济改革，以提高停滞不前的生产率增长和改善不断下降的生活水平，这样的呼声已经持续了几十年。

On Tuesday, the country's Labor government began what those advocating for economic change hope is the start of something big and far-reaching.

周二，澳大利亚工党政府开始了那些倡导经济变革的人们所希望的一场宏大而深远的行动的开端。

Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced changes to the tax system around property ownership, ending so-called "negative gearing" that directs generous financial incentives toward those buying investment homes.

国库部长吉姆·查默斯宣布了围绕房屋所有权的税制改革，终止所谓的“负扣税”政策。该政策向购买投资性住房的人提供慷慨的财政激励。

Critics have long argued that the policy has helped make cities like Sydney the most expensive housing markets in the world. Proponents, however, say it encourages the construction of new homes by swelling demand.

批评人士长期以来一直认为，该政策已导致悉尼等城市成为全球房价最昂贵的住房市场。 但支持者表示，该政策通过刺激需求来鼓励建造新住房。

Labor also changed how the capital-gains tax is applied to the sale of investment properties, making the asset class far less appealing.

澳大利亚工党政府还改革了资本利得税在投资性房产销售中的适用方式，大大降低了这类资产的吸引力。

Chalmers told parliament the tax changes address growing "intergenerational unfairness" that has priced many young people out of the property market.

查默斯向议会表示，税收改革解决了日益严重的“代际不公平”问题，这种不公平导致许多年轻人因房价过高而无力购买住房。

For economists looking on, the budgetary measures present a ray of hope that a more extensive reform agenda is taking shape—one that will boost the economy's ability to grow faster without fueling inflation.

在关注这一事态的经济学家看来，这些预算措施带来了一线希望：政府正在制定更广泛的改革议程，目的是在不加剧通胀的情况下提高经济更快增长的能力。

The Reserve Bank of Australia has highlighted the problem of weak productivity growth and low potential economic growth, delivering three interest-rate hikes so far this year to combat a spike in inflation that emerged even prior to the war in Iran.

澳大利亚央行已针对生产率增长疲弱以及潜在经济增长低迷的问题提出了警示。该央行今年以来已进行了三次加息，以抗击甚至在伊朗战争之前就出现的通胀飙升。

"I'd like to think it the budget does open the door to a bigger, more ambitious reform agenda," said Saul Eslake, a former chief economist at Merrill Lynch in Australia.

美林澳大利亚前首席经济学家索尔·埃斯莱克表示：“我愿意认为，这份预算案确实为实施更宏大、更有雄心的改革议程开启了大门。”

If the process of reform is to be extended from here, policy makers should consider increasing and/or broadening the country's goods-and-services tax to repair the revenue side of the federal budget and help ease the significant tax burden faced by wage earners and companies, he said.

他说，要使改革进程从此处向外延伸，决策者应该考虑增加或拓宽澳大利亚的商品和服务税，以修复联邦预算中收入方面的问题，并帮助减轻工薪阶层和公司面临的沉重税收负担。

But an extensive reform program of that nature would require a mandate from voters at the next federal election, likely in 2028.

但如此大刀阔斧的改革方案将需要选民在下次（可能在2028年举行的）联邦选举中对此做出授权。

"A tax mix switch involving an increase in the rate and or broadening of the base of GST would need an explicit electoral mandate to be doable," Eslake added.

埃斯莱克补充说：“要想通过提高商品和服务税税率或拓宽其税基来调整税收组合，就需要获得明确的选举授权。”

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, is also hopeful that bigger changes are coming because the property tax changes as announced don't go far enough and, by themselves, amount to a tax increase.

安保资本首席经济学家谢恩·奥利弗也对更大的改革即将到来抱有希望，因为已经宣布的房地产税改革力度还不够，而且它本身只能相当于一次增税。

"If you do one reform without looking at income tax, then you miss the bigger picture," he said.

他说：“如果你在改革时不考虑所得税，就会忽略更宏大的目标。”

The case for shifting the tax system toward consumption rather than an excessive reliance on income is urgent, Oliver said.

奥利弗表示，将税收体系向消费税倾斜，而不是过度依赖所得税，这一转变的理由很紧迫。

Economists contend that an inefficient tax system is one reason why Australia's potential economic growth rate has slumped to around 2.0% a year from around 3.5% two decades ago, when the economy was reaping the benefits of ambitious reforms carried out in the 1980s and 1990s.

经济学家们认为，税收体系效率低下是澳大利亚潜在经济增长率从20年前的约3.5%滑落到目前2.0%的原因之一。20年前，来自上世纪80年代和90年代推行的大刀阔斧改革所带来的收益让澳大利亚受益匪浅。

Huw McKay, economist and visiting fellow at the Australian National University, said the changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing "could be the start of something bigger."

澳大利亚国立大学经济学家、访问学者休·麦凯表示，对资本利得税和负扣税的改革“可能是一场更大规模变革的开端”。

To score higher on the reform meter, the government could articulate a strategy for how the tax changes fit with an overall desire to increase the economy's competitiveness and aid productivity, McKay said.

麦凯说，要想在改革计量表上得到更高分数，政府可以阐明一项战略，说明税收改革与提高经济竞争力和帮助提高生产率的总体目标如何契合。

Still, others were less sanguine, saying the tax changes will ultimately not help make the economy more productive.

尽管如此，其他人就没有这么乐观了，他们表示，税收改革最终不会有助于提高经济生产率。

"It's tinkering around the edges that will do next to nothing to solve the housing problems, which stem from a lack of supply," said Stephen Walters, chief economist at Optimal Economics. "These tax changes risk making housing shortages worse."

Optimal Economics首席经济学家斯蒂芬·沃尔特斯说：“这只是细枝末节的修修补补，对于解决因供应不足而导致的住房问题几乎没有帮助。 这些税收改革可能会带来住房短缺进一步恶化的风险。”

In his view, what the policy changes do represent is an effort to raise more revenue to support higher spending.

他认为，这些政策改变的真正用意是增加税收，为增加支出提供支持。

"Tax reform must be whole of system, lift productivity, boost efficiency and ease compliance. The changes do none of that," Walters said.

“税收改革必须是全系统、全方位的，提高生产率和效率，增加合规便利。 这些改革做不到以上任何一点。”

素材来源：iYuba

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