When 12 people were murdered by terrorists in the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris earlier this year, more than 2m came out on to the streets of France to demonstrate in sympathy and protest. It seems unlikely that there will be a similar outpouring of public emotion in response to the deaths of hundreds of would-be migrants who drowned in the Mediterranean over the weekend as they attempted to cross into Europe.

今年年初在巴黎，《查理周刊》(Charlie Hebdo)袭击案中12人被恐怖分子杀害，当时逾200万人出于同情和抗议走上法国街头参加示威活动。上周末数百名准移民在试图偷渡进入欧洲时于地中海溺死，却似乎不太可能引发类似的公众情绪爆发。

However, the scale of the tragedy and the emergence of the human stories behind the numbers may finally force European politicians to confront a problem that they have preferred to ignore. EU foreign ministers discussed the issue yesterday in Brussels and acceded to Italian calls for an emergency summit of EU leadersCHECK. Still, action may prove elusive. That is because the three potential choices they face remain unattractive, making politicians reluctant to take ownership of the problem.

然而，此次悲剧的规模及数字背后浮现的人性故事，可能最终会迫使欧洲政治人士直面一个他们一直倾向于忽视的问题。周一，欧盟(EU)各国外交部长在布鲁塞尔讨论了这一问题，并同意了意大利呼吁召开欧盟领导人紧急峰会的提议。不过，可能很难有行动。这是因为他们面对的3个潜在选项仍然缺乏吸引力，使得政治人士不愿承担问题的责任。

The natural human reaction is that these tragedies are intolerable and must be stopped. The first option, therefore, is to step up patrols and pick up more migrants. The Italian decision, under pressure from the EU, to scale back naval rescue operations has led to more deaths on the high seas; there will clearly be pressure to reverse it. However, I am not convinced that — even now — the EU will take that decision.

人们的自然反应是，感到这类悲剧令人无法容忍、必须阻止悲剧再次发生。因此，第一个选项是加强巡逻、救起更多移民。意大利在欧盟的施压下做出的缩减海军救援行动规模的决定，致使公海的死亡人数增加；意大利明显将承受扩大行动规模的压力。然而，我并不认为——即使是在现在——欧盟会做出这种决定。

The humanitarian argument made by the Catholic church and others is that it is Europe’s moral duty to protect the vulnerable, and that a rich continent can easily absorb the kind of numbers attempting to cross the sea. Last year, for example, about 219,000 refugees made the sea crossing — set against a total EU population of 500m.

天主教会等组织所坚持的人道主义观点是，保护弱势群体是欧洲在道德上的义务，这片富裕的大洲可以轻而易举地吸收当前规模的试图横跨地中海的偷渡者。比如，去年约有21.9万难民横跨地中海——而欧盟的总人口为5亿。

Until now, EU leaders have feared that stepped-up patrols will lead to an increase in the numbers of people willing to risk the crossing. They are also aware that immigration — both legal and illegal — has fed the rise of populist anti-immigration parties across Europe. Sweden, in line with its liberal tradition, has taken a particularly large number of migrants. Partly as a result, an anti-immigration party with neo-Nazi roots — the Sweden Democrats — won almost 13 per cent of the vote in the last Swedish general election. The anti-immigration National Front topped the polls in France’s elections to the European Parliament last year. The British government is in the midst of an election and is running scared of the UK Independence party, which campaigns against migration. This month, Germany has seen arson attacks on hostels for asylum seekers. Similar problems and populist parties are popping up all over Europe.

欧盟领导人至今担心，加强巡逻将导致铤而走险横渡地中海的人数上升。他们也知道，移民——无论是合法还是非法——助推了民粹主义反移民政党在整个欧洲的崛起。瑞典，本着其自由主义传统，已经吸收了格外多的移民。部分由于这个原因，根源于新纳粹主义的反移民政党——瑞典民主党(Sweden Democrats)——在上届瑞典大选中赢得了将近13%的选票。去年在法国欧洲议会选举中，反移民的国民阵线(National Front)的得票率最高。英国政府正处于大选季，对反对移民的英国独立党(UK Independence party)十分忌惮。本月，德国发生了数起针对避难收容所的纵火袭击案。类似的问题和民粹主义政党在整个欧洲层出不穷。

Nor is this an entirely European reaction. In Australia, Tony Abbott, the prime minister, promised to “stop the boats” of illegal migrants attempting to cross into his country. The past week has also brought condemnation in South Africa of deadly attacks made on some of the millions of illegal migrants who have entered that country from elsewhere in Africa. Successive US administrations, including Barack Obama’s, have had to promise to step up border security with Mexico.

这也不仅仅是整个欧洲的反应。澳大利亚总理托尼•阿博特(Tony Abbott)承诺阻止试图偷渡进入澳大利亚的非法移民的船只。上周，在南非发生的针对部分非法移民的致命袭击也招致了谴责，从非洲其他地区进入南非的非法移民已经达到数以百万计的水平。包括奥巴马当局在内的历届美国政府，都不得不承诺加强美墨边境的安保工作。

There are examples of more generous policies. Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey have all taken hundreds of thousands of refugees from the war in Syria. But only a trickle of those have been allowed to move on to Europe.

也有些国家采取了更慷慨的移民政策。约旦、黎巴嫩和土耳其均接受了从叙利亚战争逃离的数十万难民。但是仅有少量难民被允许前往欧洲。

The second option is burden-sharing within Europe, where different countries have reacted with different levels of generosity to the flow of desperate migrants from Syria, in particular. The Germans and Swedes have taken thousands; the British, just a few hundred (through formal programmes, at least).

第二个选项是在欧洲内部共同承担负担，目前不同国家在对待绝望的移民、尤其是叙利亚移民时，慷慨程度有所不同。德国和瑞典接纳了数千人；英国则仅接收了几百人（起码通过正规程序只接收了这么多）。

There will now be calls for greater burden-sharing and a more equitable distribution of refugees across the EU, with all 28 nations taking their share. However, even agreement on this is no certainty. Since politicians do not know the numbers of potential refugees involved, they cannot know what agreeing to take a “fair share” might ultimately involve. Free movement of people within the EU means that, even if refugees are settled in Bulgaria or Poland, there is nothing to stop them getting on the bus to Germany or France. Entry into the UK, which has its own border controls, is more problematic. But the thousands of would-be migrants gathered in the French seaports suggest many are willing to attempt one last sea crossing.

现在将有人呼吁提高负担共担力度，在欧盟内部更公平地分配难民，所有28个成员国都要出力分担。然而，就连在这个问题上达成共识都绝非板上钉钉。由于政客们不知道相关潜在难民的数量，他们就不清楚同意承担“公平份额”最终意味着什么。欧盟内部人员自由流动意味着，即便难民在保加利亚或波兰安顿下来，也没任何办法阻止他们坐上公共汽车前往德国或法国。要进入具有自己的边境管控措施的英国，难度会更大。但是，数千准移民聚集在法国海港，意味着许多人愿意尝试最后一次跨海行动。

The third option is to focus on Libya, where the collapse of governance that followed the Nato-sponsored overthrow of Colonel Gaddafi’s regime has created a perfect base for people traffickers. The Italian government has talked of a possible military intervention there — perhaps to control the ports and disrupt trafficking networks. Yet the recent histories of western interventions in the Middle East make governments extremely reluctant to contemplate this option. Libya has become a base not just for people-traffickers, but also for brutal jihadis. If western troops landed in Libya to try to stabilise the situation, it would probably not be long before they were being killed or taken hostage.

第三个选项是关注利比亚，卡扎菲上校(Colonel Gaddafi)的政权在北约(Nato)支持下被推翻之后，该国出现了治理崩溃，造就了一个极佳的人贩子基地。意大利政府谈起过对利比亚进行可能的军事干预——或许可以控制港口，并破坏人口贩卖网络。不过，近年来西方干预中东的经历，让西方政府极不情愿考虑这一选项。利比亚不但成为人贩子聚集地，也成为残忍的圣战分子的基地。如果西方军队进入利比亚，尝试维护局势稳定，他们可能不久就会被杀或成为人质。

There is also a realisation that Libya is merely the end point of the problem. Most of the refugees crossing the Mediterranean have come from further afield — places such as Eritrea, Nigeria, Sudan and south Asia, as well as war-torn countries such as Syria or Yemen. Closing the Libyan route could be effective for a while. But ultimately it might only displace the problem elsewhere.

人们也认识到，利比亚只是问题的一个端点。大多数跨过地中海的难民来自更远的地方——比如厄立特里亚、尼日利亚、苏丹和亚洲南部等地，以及叙利亚或也门等饱受战争摧残的国家。关闭利比亚路线在一段时间内可能会管用。但是，最终这或许只能把问题转移到其他地区。