US oil production will increase this year and next despite the 60 per cent slide in oil prices since mid-June and an Opec policy designed to rein in the North American shale boom.

今明两年美国石油产量将出现增长，尽管自去年6月中旬以来油价下跌了60%，并且欧佩克(OPEC)实行了旨在遏制北美页岩油繁荣的政策。

The forecast, by the US government, came as a leading Opec producer said that the cartel was sticking to its strategy of keeping output steady and testing the mettle of high-cost producers around the world.

在美国政府发布上述预测之际，欧佩克的一个主要成员国表示，欧佩克坚持其保持产量稳定的战略，这一战略将考验世界各地的高成本产油国。

The US Energy Department said that US output would rise by 600,000 barrels a day this year to 9.3m b/d, and by 200,000 b/d to 9.5m b/d in 2016.

美国能源部表示，今年美国石油日产量将增长60万桶，达到930万桶；2016年将增长20万桶，达到950万桶。

The projected increase for this year is slightly lower than a previous forecast in December, reflecting the pressure of lower crude prices on the US oil industry. “Many oil companies have cut back on their exploration drilling in response to falling crude prices and will concentrate their drilling activities in established areas that already have productive wells,” the department said.

对今年增长的预期略低于去年12月的预测，反映出油价下跌对美国石油业的压力。美国能源部表示：“许多石油公司减少了勘探性钻探活动以应对油价的不断下跌，今后钻探活动将集中在已经有采油井的成熟地区进行。”

The official estimates suggest the US shale industry has proved more resilient in the face of collapsing oil prices than feared. Although production growth will slow, officials said output next year would be the highest since 1970.

这些官方估计表明，美国页岩产业应对油价暴跌的能力不像人们原来担心的那么弱。尽管产量增长将会放缓，但官员们表示，明年的产量将达到自1970年以来的最高水平。

However, some analysts are less optimistic, predicting a significant pullback in investment which will lead to production declines by the end of this year.

然而，一些分析师则没有那么乐观，他们预计相关投资将会大幅下降，这将导致产量在今年年底出现下降。

The slide in oil prices accelerated in November last year after Opec, the producers’ cartel, which pumps a third of the world’s oil, decided to keep output steady at 30m b/d rather than cut its production to shore up prices.

去年11月，在欧佩克决定将产量保持3000万桶/日不变、而不是减产以提振油价以后，油价加速下跌。欧佩克石油产量占全球三分之一。

Some investors have placed bets on US crude slumping to below $20 a barrel, a level last traded almost 13 years ago. The number of outstanding contracts that give the right to sell US benchmark West Texas Intermediate at this level by June, known as put options has swelled from almost zero at the start of the year to 13,129 lots, according to Nymex data. This is the equivalent of 13m barrels of oil.

一些投资者押注美国原油将跌至每桶20美元以下——上次出现这种水平是在近13年前。纽约商业交易所(Nymex)的数据显示，到今年6月有权以这个价格销售美国基准原油——西德州中质原油的未结算合约数量（即看跌期权）从今年年初接近零的水平，上升至13129手。这相当于1300万桶石油。