In the space of three years, emerging markets have seen a dramatic fall from grace. Once thought to be a key strategic asset class, favoured by many investors, now they are essentially persona non grata.

3年时间内，新兴市场明显失宠了。新兴市场资产曾被视为一个关键的战略资产类别，受到许多投资者的青睐，如今却基本沦为“不受欢迎的人”。

As of mid-March, emerging market equity funds had experienced 21 straight weeks of outflows. Political turmoil in Turkey and Ukraine, coupled with devaluation by Argentina, has only added to investor angst.

截至3月中旬，新兴市场股票基金已经一连21周出现资金净流出。土耳其和乌克兰政治动荡，加上阿根廷货币贬值，加剧了投资者的不安。

But to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the death of emerging markets have been exaggerated. True, there are concerns about the near-term outlook, but it is important to remember a few key facts.

但借用马克•吐温(Mark Twain)的说法，关于新兴市场已死的报道夸大其辞了。没错，近期展望引起担忧，但重要的是记住一些关键事实。

Volatility is par for the course when it comes to emerging markets. Many investors are being scared off by the recent volatility but it is not abnormal. In fact, it is more characteristic of emerging market investing than the unusually placid period of the past several years.

新兴市场出现波动是正常的。许多投资者被新兴市场最近的波动吓坏了，但这种波动并非反常。事实上，与过去几年不寻常的平静期相比，目前的波动性反而更能体现新兴市场投资的特点。

Since 1995 the annualised volatility on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been roughly 25 per cent, in contrast with about 15 per cent for the MSCI World Index of developed countries. But the extraordinary monetary liquidity from the US Federal Reserve, and increasingly the Bank of Japan, has damped volatility as investors have been forced into riskier asset classes in their hunt for yield.

自1995年以来，摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)新兴市场指数的年化波动率约为25%，而MSCI发达市场指数的年化波动率约为15%。但美联储(Fed)和动作越来越大的日本央行(BoJ)提供的大量货币流动性，降低了市场波动性，因为投资者一直以来被迫投资风险更高的资产，以博取收益。

More normal environment

更正常的环境

According to World Bank estimates, massive asset purchase programmes from large, developed-country central banks were responsible for 60 per cent of the capital flows into emerging market assets between 2009 and 2013. With quantitative easing now coming to an end, at least in the US, we are returning to a more normal environment.

据世界银行(World Bank)估计，在2009年至2013年间流入新兴市场资产的资金总量中，大型发达国家央行的大规模资产购买计划占到了60%。眼下随着量化宽松走向终结（至少在美国是这样），我们开始回归一个更正常的环境。

Emerging markets have a tendency to go through dramatic and often prolonged busts, but over the long term they have outperformed developed markets by an average of 1.5 per cent annually since 1950.

新兴市场有一种经历剧烈且长期崩盘过程的趋势，但从长期来看，自1950年以来，新兴市场的年平均表现较发达市场胜出1.5%。

Why? Much has been written about the emerging market growth story, but whether you buy into that or not, there is a more fundamental reason for outperformance: the higher volatility makes it riskier. Investors should be compensated for taking risk, and with emerging markets they have been over the long term.

原因何在？有关新兴市场增长的分析已然长篇累牍，但无论你是否接受，新兴市场表现胜出的一个更根本原因在于：波动性更大，投资风险更高。投资者敢于承担风险，理应获得补偿，在新兴市场，他们则是在长期获得了补偿。

Because of the risk, emerging markets are not for everyone. For more conservative investors, emerging market assets, particularly stocks, should have only a small weight in a portfolio. Regardless of their relative value, for conservative investors the asset class is simply too volatile.

由于风险的存在，新兴市场并非适合所有人。对更保守的投资者来说，新兴市场资产、尤其是股票，在投资组合中所占权重应当很低。无论相对价值如何，在保守投资者眼中，这一资产类别的波动性都太大了。

But for investors with sufficient risk tolerance, emerging markets can have some role to play. Allocations should be modest even for moderate or aggressive portfolios, but they provide some diversification – they still enjoy lower correlations to developed markets, although less so than in the past – and generally are additive.

但对于有足够风险承受能力的投资者，投资新兴市场可以有一番作为。甚至在中性或激进投资组合里，对新兴市场的配置也应适度，但新兴市场可以提供多元化，通常发挥辅助作用。目前，新兴市场与发达市场的相关性仍很低，不过已高于过去。

Cheap but not a bargain

便宜，但非好买卖

So what about the opposite argument, that this is a terrific time to buy emerging markets because they are so cheap? Equities are inexpensive, but not yet at the bargain basement prices that have marked previous lows.

相反的观点是，新兴市场资产如此便宜，现在正是买入的大好时机。这个观点正确与否？股票是不贵，但还没降到过去新兴市场出现过的超低价。

Emerging market stocks are trading at about 11 times earnings. This is below the long-term average, but they traded as low as 7 to 8 times trailing earnings back at the lows of 2008 and 1997-98.

目前新兴市场股票的市盈率约为11倍，低于长期平均值，但在2008年和1997至1998年间的市场底部时，其历史市盈率曾低至7、8倍。

However, the recent indiscriminate selling has created some opportunities. While consumer discretionary, internet plays and particularly banks look expensive, anything linked to resources appears cheap. The challenge is that while there are some genuine bargains, investors need the flexibility to pick through the rubble.

然而，近期不分青红皂白的抛售创造了一些机会。虽然非必需消费品板块、互联网板块、尤其是银行板块看来很贵，但所有与资源相关的股票似乎都很便宜。挑战在于，尽管确实存在一些真正的低价股，但投资者在仔细筛选时，需要有一定的灵活性。

At some point in the next several years, emerging market assets are likely to come back into fashion. Many of the reasons that first drew investors still hold. Developing countries are likely to grow faster over the long term, probably much faster than developed countries. On many metrics, from foreign exchange reserves to sovereign debt levels, developing countries have improved significantly, and in some cases look better than many developed markets.

未来几年的某一时点，新兴市场资产可能再受青睐。当初吸引投资者的许多理由如今仍然成立。长期来看，发展中国家的增长可能更快，很可能比发达国家快很多。在从外汇储备到主权债务水平的许多指标上，发展中国家已大为改善，在有些情况下，看来要好于许多发达国家。

To some extent the challenges now stem from lost opportunity. Many emerging markets failed to seize the window of opportunity afforded by loose central bank monetary conditions and institute necessary structural reforms. While a few have been trying lately – Mexico stands out – many large developing countries from India to Brazil still face significant headwinds.

在某种程度上，新兴市场的当前挑战源于错失良机。许多新兴市场没能抓住央行宽松货币条件提供的机会窗口，启动必要的结构改革。尽管几个新兴市场国家近来努力改革——比较突出的是墨西哥——但从印度到巴西的许多大型发展中国家仍面临着非常大的改革阻力。

The good news for investors is that many of these challenges are increasingly reflected in the price. When it comes to emerging markets, investors should exercise caution, not abstinence.

投资者的好消息是，许多挑战已日益在股价中得到了反映。投资新兴市场时，应当小心谨慎，但不应全盘否定。