Normally when Federal Reserve Board of St. Louis President James Bullard travels abroad, he finds himself talking about U.S. economic growth and the unemployment rate, and what that might mean for Fed monetary policy.

当圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德(James Bullard)在海外访问时，他通常会谈到美国的经济增长和失业率情况，以及这对于美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)的货币政策可能意味着什么。

He did his share of that on a recent visit to Hong Kong, where he gave several talks at the Credit Suisse Asian investment conference. But he also found himself at one point imagining a world far removed from his daily experience.

布拉德最近访问香港时也延续了这一作风。访问期间，他在瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)亚洲投资大会上发表了几次讲话。不过他一度也展望了未来世界可能的格局，这一格局显著不同于当前。

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of the conference, Mr. Bullard spoke of a future in which China and India are the economic leaders, and the U.S. must band together with the other current members of the G3 to try to counterbalance them.

在会议间隙接受《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)访问时，布拉德谈到了中国和印度成为全球经济领头羊的这样一种未来前景，并表示美国必须与三大工业国(G3)中其他两个成员紧密团结，设法制衡中印两国。

'Certainly attitudes in the U.S. are going to have to change, because the U.S. will not permanently be the global leader the way things are going,' he said.

他表示，当然美国方面的态度必须做出改变，因为美国不会永远是全球的领导者。

China is already the largest economy in the world after the United States, and is growing much faster than the U.S. Not too far in the future -- estimates range from as soon as 2016 to as 'distant' as 2028 -- it will surpass the American economy in size.

中国已经成为排在美国之后的全球第二大经济体，并且成长速度远高于美国。估计在不久的将来（最早在2016年，最晚是2028年），中国经济规模将超越美国。

Most likely, China will eventually match the U.S. in per capita income terms as well. With a population about four times as large as America's, that would imply a massive shift in the global balance of power.

中国的个人平均所得最终也很可能赶上美国的水平。鉴于中国的人口规模大约是美国的四倍，这意味着全球力量平衡将出现重大变化。

In that case, 'the U.S. would be playing a role to China similar to the role the U.K. plays to the U.S. today,' Mr. Bullard said. 'People think it's 50-75 years away but it's probably only 25 or 20 years away, something like that.'

布拉德表示，届时美国之于中国的角色就类似今天英国之于美国。外界认为这将是50-75年之后的事，但它可能只需要25年或20年。

China's economy currently is a little more than half the size of America's, IMF data show, clocking in at $8.9 trillion in 2013 versus $16.7 trillion for the U.S.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，目前中国经济规模略微高于美国的一半，2013年为8.9万亿美元，美国为16.7万亿美元。

But China's economy is growing much more quickly, targeting growth of about 7.5% this year. In contrast, the U.S. economy will be lucky to grow 3%.

但是中国经济的增长速度更快，今年的增长率目标大约为7.5%，相比之下，美国经济能够增长3%就已经算不错了。

Then there's India, another economy of a billion-plus people that's also growing quickly. Eventually, Mr. Bullard said, he can foresee a tri-polar world in which China and India are the major economic powers, counterbalanced by a bloc of the United States, Europe and Japan, whose populations together will total about one billion people.

接下来就是印度，另一个拥有10亿以上人口并且快速增长的经济体。布拉德说，按照他的预测，最终将出现一个三极世界，而在这个世界中，中国和印度都是主要的经济强国，与之构成制衡的是美国、欧洲和日本组成的一个集团――那时这些国家的人口总数大约10亿人。

'We've said the U.S. is a superpower, an economic superpower. But these are giants, they're bigger than a superpower,' he said. 'What would that world be like, both economically and politically? I think that's really hard to understand. How much would the Western bloc be willing to cooperate politically to be a counterbalance to China and India?'

他说：我们反复说过，美国是一个超级大国，一个经济超级大国。但上述国家则是“巨国”，比超级大国还要大，那样的一个世界，从经济和政治的角度来看，会是什么样呢？我觉得实在难以把握。这个西方集团愿意在多大程度上进行政治合作来制衡中国和印度？

Mr. Bullard offered few specifics of what such a world would look like, but did acknowledge that it might require some adjustment on the part of ordinary Americans like those he serves in the heartland.

在那时的世界会是什么样这个问题上，布拉德基本未具体论述，但他也承认，普通美国人可能需要做一些调整。

'The U.S. is just used to being so much bigger than all of its typical rivals, both in terms of population and in terms of GDP, that it can heavily influence policy on many dimensions -- not only economic policy, regulatory policy, even stretching into politics and certainly military aspects. This really dictates the world we live in,' he said.

他说：美国已经习惯了比自己传统的竞争对手大很多这种格局，不管是在人口数量上还是在GDP上，从而能对很多方面的政策产生重大影响――不仅仅是经济政策、监管政策，甚至会延伸到政治和军事方面。这种中格局主导了我们现在生活的世界。

'A lot of people who've grown up with that, it's been that way their whole life -- they're just not used to thinking about a world where you're going to have to make more alliances, you're not going to be the big kid on the block,' he said. 'And the big kid on the block might not even be a democracy.'

布拉德称：很多人都是在这种环境中长大的，在他们的一生当中，事情一直是这个样子，他们还不习惯谈论一个自己需要拉拢更多盟友的世界，你已经不再是这个街区的‘大孩子’了，而且，这个街区的‘大孩子’甚至可能不是一个民主国家。

Heavy stuff. On the (relatively) lighter side, Mr. Bullard said hearing the perspective of people on the other side of the world helps inform his work as a Fed official. This time, he said, he's been hearing plenty of concern in Asia about potential asset bubbles -- particularly in Hong Kong real estate -- growing risks to China's growth, and the potential for disruptions in global markets as the Fed tapers its bond purchases.

这个话题非常沉重。但要看（相对较为）轻松一面的话，布拉德说，听到世界另一面的人对世界有什么看法能帮助他更好地履行美联储官员的职责。他说，这一次他听到亚洲人有很多担忧：对可能的资产泡沫――特别是在香港的房地产市场――感到担忧，对中国增长所面临越来越多的风险感到担忧，对美联储缩减购债在全球市场可能产生的扰动感到担忧。

His own take? Tapering reflects an improved outlook for the U.S. economy, and hasn't created the wild ructions in international markets that some feared.

他自己有什么看法呢？缩减购债表明美国的经济前景改善，而且并没有像一些人担心的那样在国际市场产生大规模骚乱。

'I think policy is actually in a pretty good place right now,' he said. 'But I've learned in this business you can't ever count on anything staying the same for more than a couple months at a time.'

布拉德表示：我认为眼下的政策非常合适，但我从所干的工作中明白，实在不能指望什么事情在几个月的时间内还保持原样。