Been there, done that. Restless investors, like travellers, like to look ahead. The investment case for Samsonite has been based on a turnround, fast-growing sales and a cheaper valuation than rival luggage maker Tumi. The first is done, sales can’t outpace global tourism forever, and the discount is not what it was. So what’s next?

去过那里，做过那些。浮躁的投资者就像游客，喜欢向前看。投资新秀丽(Samsonite)的理由一直是基于其扭亏为盈、销售快速增长，以及比箱包生产竞争对手塔米(Tumi)更低的估值。第一项已经完成了，销售不会永远超过全球旅游业的增长，而且估值折扣也不像从前了。那么下一步该如何呢？

Admittedly, sales growth of 15 per cent, as reported in Wednesday’s full-year earnings, only looks poor next to the 20 per cent rate Samsonite has managed since Tim Parker was parachuted in as boss in 2009. Samsonite has not provided forecasts for 2014, but analysts are pencilling in 11 per cent this year and next. Not bad given Samsonite’s sales must be linked with leisure spending over the long term. International trips rose 5 per cent last year and are expected to grow slightly slower in 2014. There is no reason to think that, as Samsonite settles, its luggage growth will be much more spectacular. Suitcases are mostly practical items that needn’t be upgraded as fashions change.

诚然，在周三公布的全年盈利报告中，销售额增长15%，只是相对于2009年蒂姆•帕克(Tim Parker)空降成为新秀丽总裁后、该公司实现的20%销售增长才有点逊色。新秀丽还未提供2014年销售增长预测，但分析师普遍认为今年和明年的增速是11%。鉴于长远而言新秀丽的销售必然与休闲支出挂钩，这个数字还不赖。去年跨国游增长了5%，预计2014的增速将稍微放缓。没有理由认为，随着新秀丽趋于稳定，其箱包销售会有大幅超出此类水平的增长。行李箱大多是实用物件，不需要随时尚更新换代。

What seems to be next, then, are deals. The company has ambitions and net cash of $212m. Mr Parker says it can spend up to $1bn. That would result in manageable leverage. There is certainly potential to expand: luggage makes up only a third of the bag market, Samsonite says, with the rest split evenly between handbags and other more casual items. Deal-fuelled top-line growth would also detract attention from the fact its operating margins, at 14 per cent, remain stubbornly shy of Tumi’s 18 per cent. Since Tumi rebuffed Samsonite and instead listed in 2012, the latter has cut its discount from half Tumi’s valuation to a third less, at 19 versus 25 times expected earnings. At its best last October, it got within a tenth. Tumi expects up to 17 per cent sales growth this year. Mr Parker had better get his cheque book out soon.

那么，下一步似乎就是并购交易了。该公司拥有野心和2.12亿美元净现金。帕克称最多可掏出10亿美元。那将带来可管理的杠杆。扩张的空间确实存在：据新秀丽介绍，行李箱仅构成包市场的三分之一，市场的其余部分被手袋和其他更为休闲的产品平分。并购交易推动的顶线增长还将转移人们的注意力，使他们忽略新秀丽的营运利润率（14%）仍固执地低于塔米的18%。自塔米拒绝新秀丽的收购、并于2012年上市以来，新秀丽的估值折扣已从塔米的一半缩减为三分之一，如今新秀丽的预期市盈率是19倍，而塔米是25倍。在去年10月表现最佳的时候，其估值折扣小于10%。塔米预期今年销售增长17%。帕克最好准备很快拿出他的支票簿。