Historically when equity fund sales have boomed in Asia, it has been local and regional equity-driven investment strategies that have proved most popular. When the Hong Kong industry had a blowout year in 2007, it was greater China and Asian regional funds that dominated. These two strategies alone accounted for almost three-quarters of the $9.5bn of net sales in that year.		历史上，股票型基金在亚洲销量繁荣，都是正值地方和地区股票主导型投资策略最为受宠的时候。香港基金业2007年火爆异常，大中华和亚洲地区基金的表现尤其抢眼。当年香港基金业净销售额达95亿美元，其中单是这两种策略就贡献了近四分之三的份额。
Subsequently, bond funds then dominated mutual fund sales in Hong Kong, peaking with net flows of $13.5bn in 2012. Low interest rates and risk aversion changed investment behaviour across Asia, as investors began to value regular income from their funds and moderated expectations for capital gains.		后来，债券型基金在香港共同基金销售中占主导，2012年净资金流入达到135亿美元的峰值。低利率和避险心态改变了亚洲各地的投资方式，基金投资者开始重视稳定的收入，而降低了对资本利得的预期。
As a result, for the past few years fund companies have focused on offering strategies that pay regular income. They have typically competed for new money by highlighting dividend yield paid by funds.		因此在过去几年，基金公司专注提供能够支付稳定收益的策略。为了争夺新资金，它们常常强调基金的股息收益率。
Last year in Hong Kong may well prove to be a turning point for fund preference. Net outflows from bond funds and positive flows to equity strategies dominated by an allocation to international, European and Asian funds was proof that investors were once again willing to take equity risk.		对香港而言，去年很可能是投资者对基金策略偏好的转折点。债券型基金资金净流出，股票型基金资金净流入，投资国际、欧洲和亚洲股市的基金备受资金青睐，表明投资者再次愿意承受股票风险。
The expectation is that better-performing regional stock markets will provide the foundation for a broad-based recovery in equity funds. In the past, outperforming stock markets outside Asia have not been a sufficient catalyst for continued allocation to equity funds unless regional markets joined the party.		投资者的预期是，亚洲地区股市表现好转将为股票型基金的全面复苏打下基础。过去，亚洲之外一些股市的优异表现一直不足以让投资者持续配置股票型基金，除非亚洲本地股市同样表现强劲。
Current conditions in Asia are far from convincing. In the past, positive earnings revisions ahead of listed companies issuing their earnings reports and guidance has been a lead indicator of market recovery.		亚洲目前的情况很难让人放心。过去，市场人士在上市公司发布盈利报告和前瞻之前调高盈利预期，一直是市场复苏的首要指标。
Throughout the second half of last year, analysts had been revising down their earnings estimates. Investors had been overly optimistic in 2013, except when it came to China.		而整个去年下半年，分析师一直在下调盈利预期。除对中国表示担忧之外，投资者2013年的心态过于乐观。
Positive surprises in Chinese corporate earnings did not result in outperformance, however. For China, as ever, policy and a confluence of macroeconomic factors drive sentiment more than changes to the outlook for earnings. Most of China’s positive earnings surprises came from banks, a sector that is generally held underweight by international investors. Fears of credit tightening and the potential bad-debt situation had driven investors away from the financial sector in China throughout last year.		但中国企业盈利超出预期并没有导致股市上扬。因为中国与以往并无不同，政策和宏观经济因素比盈利前景的变化更能影响市场情绪。中国企业盈利超出预期的情况大多发生在银行，而国际投资者对该行业通常采取低配策略。去年，对信贷收紧和坏账风险的担忧，导致投资者远离中国金融业。
As investors look forward to the current reporting period, analysts are starting to upgrade their earnings expectations for companies in China, Hong Kong, India and Taiwan. However, expectations for Korea, the Philippines and Thailand are still being reduced, albeit at a slower rate.		在投资者对当前财报期充满期待之际，分析师开始上调对中国内地、香港、印度和台湾企业的盈利预期。但对韩国、菲律宾和泰国企业的预期仍在下调，尽管下调速度放缓。
Asian investors will take cheer from the first positive week of stock market performance across the region this year, in mid-February. Slightly better trade data from China helped drive prices higher. This was followed by China reporting record new credit in January despite the People’s Bank of China’s call in mid-January for lenders to curb loans.		2月中旬亚洲各地股市迎来年内首周上扬，令亚洲投资者感到振奋。中国略有好转的贸易数据促进了股价的攀升。之后中国又报告了1月份创新高的新增信贷数据，尽管中国央行(PBoC)曾于1月中旬呼吁银行收紧贷款。
For about a year, the central bank has been trying to tighten liquidity and slow down the pace of new lending that has fuelled the expansion of the so-called shadow banking sector. Its ability to control access to credit has been limited at times, or simply heavy handed, causing exaggerated fluctuations in interbank lending rates.		约一年来，中国央行一直试图收紧流动性，放缓新增贷款发放，而正是新增贷款推动了所谓影子银行业的扩张。央行控制信贷供应的能力有时有限，有时又极为严厉，导致同业拆借利率大幅波动。
The access some borrowers have had to international sources of funding has undermined controls. In November alone, Hong Kong banks lent $30bn to China. Their total exposure to Chinese entities now stands at $430bn.		一些企业在国际上融资，削弱了央行的控制力。光是去年11月，香港银行便向内地放贷300亿美元，它们贷给内地企业的总贷款现为4300亿美元。
Another source of funding, particularly during the period of US quantitative easing, has been the offshore bond market. Chinese entities issued about $250bn of offshore bonds to international investors between early 2010 and June 2013. With global liquidity conditions now under threat from US tapering, some fear this link between China’s domestic credit conditions and international liquidity could work in reverse and slow the mainland economy. Signs that China can maintain growth at around 7.5 per cent in 2014 and moderate credit growth will influence investors more than any upgrade in corporate earnings.		融资的另一大来源是离岸债券市场（尤其是在美国量化宽松期间）。在2010年初至2013年6月之间，中国企业向国际投资者发行了约2500亿美元的离岸债券。由于全球流动性受美国缩减量化宽松影响，有人担心中国国内信贷环境与国际流动性的这种联系将急转直下，放缓内地经济。如果有迹象表明中国能在2014年维持7.5%左右的增长率，并且控制信贷增速，这将比任何的企业盈利上调更能影响投资者。
At the end of January a Chinese trust fund was bailed-out and investors were paid back their capital to avoid what would have been the largest trust fund failure in China for over a decade. Analysts expect investors in other funds later in the year will not be as fortunate, as the excesses of the credit boom begin to unwind. How the authorities manage this will prove critical. A stable and better-performing Chinese stock market is likely to be a pre-requisite for continued momentum in equity fund sales across the region.		1月底，中国的一支信托基金得到纾困，投资者拿回本金，避免了十多年来该国最大的一起信托基金违约。但分析师预计，随着信贷过度繁荣带来的问题开始显现，今年晚些时候其他基金的投资者就没那么幸运了。当局的对策将至关重要。企稳、好转的中国股市，可能将是亚洲地区股票型基金销售势头持续的前提。