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诺贝尔经济学奖的“后危机”时代意味

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-10-17 09:00| 查看数: 987| 评论数: 0|

There's a definite post-crisis flavor to the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.

今年的诺贝尔经济学奖颇有些“后危机”时代的意味。

U.S. economists Eugene F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert J. Shiller have won the prize this year for their 'empirical analysis of asset prices.'

美国经济学家尤金・法马(Eugene Fama)、拉斯・彼得・汉森(Lars Peter Hansen)和罗伯特・席勒(Robert Shiller) 凭借对资产价格的实证分析赢得了今年的诺奖。

All three have strong form as economists who look for a deeper understanding of asset prices and values beyond the volatile and often irrational day to day mechanisms of the market.

三人都可以称得上是实至名归。作为经济学家,他们都在富于波动性、往往非理性的日常市场机制之外,寻求对资产价格和价值的更深刻理解。

Here's a passage from a backgrounder published by the Nobel Foundation:

以下是诺贝尔基金会(Nobel Foundation)提供的背景文字中的一段:

'Fama, Hansen, and Shiller have developed new methods for studying asset prices and used them in their investigations of detailed data on the prices of stocks, bonds and other assets. Their methods have become standard tools in academic research, and their insights provide guidance for the development of theory as well as for professional investment practice. Although we do not yet fully understand how asset prices are determined, the research of the Laureates has revealed a number of important regularities that are helping us to arrive at better explanations.'

“法马、汉森和席勒已经开发出了新的资产价格研究方法,并在对股票、债券及其他资产价格详细数据的调查中使用了这些方法。他们所使用的方法已经在学术研究界成为了标准工具,他们的洞见为理论的发展和专业的投资实践活动提供了指导。虽然我们并不完全了解资产价格是如何决定的,但这些获奖者的研究工作已经揭示了一些重要规律,这些规律有助于我们做出更好的解释。”

Yale University's Mr. Shiller is probably the best known to financial market participants thanks to his name being on the various Case-Shiller home price indexes which occasionally grab headlines, and for his book, 'Irrational Exhuberance,' which argued that the markets of the dotcom era were overvalued. Not a bad call as it turned out.

耶鲁大学(Yale University)的席勒很可能是获奖者中最为金融市场所熟知的一个人,因为他的名字出现在了各种凯斯-席勒住房价格指数当中,这些指数偶尔会成为头条新闻,同时他还是《非理性繁荣》('Irrational Exhuberance)这本书的作者。该书称,互联网时代的市场估值过高。结果证明,这个说法相当靠谱。

Mr. Fama, is another asset price obsessive. He's a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, while Chicago further cements its long hold over market economics with the inclusion of Mr. Hansen in this year's honors.

法马也是一个热衷于资产价格的人。他是芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)布斯商学院(Booth School of Business)的教授,而由于今年汉森也获了奖,芝大进一步巩固了其在市场经济学界长期以来享有的崇高地位。

The past five years of financial crisis cruelly opened the world's eyes to the farce of market asset pricing, notably in the field of more complex derivatives and sub-prime assets, as Lehman Brothers discovered back in 2008.

过去五年间的经济危机以一种残酷的方式让世界认清了市场资产定价的闹剧,尤其是在较为复杂的衍生品和次贷资产领域,就如同雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)在2008年时发现的那样。

Of course, there are those who worry that markets remain seriously mis-priced to this day, as stocks refuse to budge far from multi-year highs despite the threat of shutdown and, possibly, debt default in the U.S. Beyond that, there is also cause to wonder how close any index would be to current levels without the comfort blanket of government stimulus. And that is a problem some five years after Lehman went under.

当然,还有些人担心,市场直到如今仍然处于严重定价错误的状态,因为尽管存在政府关门、美国可能发生债务违约的威胁,股市仍然不为所动,没有远离多年来的高点。除此之外,人们有理由担心,如果没有了政府刺激这一席“安心毯”, 任何一种指数是不是有可能保持在当前水平。雷曼兄弟倒下大约五年之后,这是一个问题。

If ever we needed a cool analysis of asset pricing, now is the time.

如果说我们需要对资产定价进行冷静的分析,此其时也。


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