The last time Apple suffered a fall in sales was more than a decade ago. At the time, the iPod still looked like an overpriced and unnecessary addition to an unpromising MP3 player market. Steve Jobs had yet to unveil iTunes or the deal with the music industry that was to propel his gadget dreams.

苹果(Apple)上次销量下跌已是十多年前的事儿。那时，对于前景黯淡的MP3播放器市场而言，iPod似乎仍是一个定价过高又非必须的后来者。史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)还没推出iTunes，也没与音乐行业达成帮他实现电子产品梦的交易。

So how important is it that Jobs’ successors have just come within a whisker of repeating that sales decline? Apple eked out revenue growth of less than 1 per cent in its latest quarter, a performance that officially brings an end to the years of breakneck growth.

乔布斯的继任者已再次接近销售下滑的局面，这有何重大意义？上一季度，苹果的利润勉强增长不到1%，这一表现正式宣告高速增长的时代结束了。

For a sense of the doldrums into which the world’s most creative consumer technology company is in danger of falling, you only have to look at the foot traffic in its stores. In the past quarter, 1,000 fewer people walked through the average Apple retail establishment each week compared with a year before. And those who did show up spent less.

全球最具创意的消费科技企业正在陷入下滑的危险，想要感受一下苹果的萧条境况，只需看看其门店的客流量就行了。上一季度，苹果零售店每周平均客流量同比减少了1000人次。而光临的客户，消费额也下降了。

This is the kind of thing that makes even Microsoft investors feel more relaxed. Windows software may not set the heart on fire the way a finely chiselled MacBook Air can, but Microsoft starts each quarter with a large part of its revenues already in the bank: many corporate customers buy on extended contracts, giving Microsoft something of the predictability and staying power of an IBM.

这种局面甚至让微软(Microsoft)的投资者都感到更轻松了。Windows软件或许无法像精雕细琢的MacBook Air那样惹人喜爱，但每个季度一开始，就有大笔收入汇入微软的银行账号了：很多企业客户延长了购买合同，这让微软像IBM一样，收入具有一定程度的可预测性以及持久性。

Like a magician working children’s birthday parties, Apple has to go out and earn almost all of its sales one quarter at a time.

苹果则像在儿童生日聚会上表演的魔术师一样，每季度都要靠自己努力才能挣到收入。

There were two overriding messages from Apple’s latest earnings report. One was that it hit something close to perfection surprisingly early on in the lives of the iPhone and iPad. That’s a great tribute to its engineers and designers but also a problem for the company as it starts to become reliant on the upgrade market.

苹果最新财报透露了两条重要信息。其一是，早在iPhone和iPad刚刚问世之时，苹果就已把产品打造得臻于完美。这是苹果工程师和设计师的伟大贡献，但也成了公司的负担，因为苹果开始依赖升级市场。

The iPhone 4 and iPad 2 have turned into the workhorses of the Apple line-up. The world loves the older iPhone, not least because of its lower price tag – and not just the developing world, where Apple is starting to see some impressive growth from a small base, but markets like the UK and the US as well.

iPhone 4和iPad 2已经成为苹果阵营的主力产品。不管是在发展中国家，还是英美市场上，人们都喜欢老款iPhone，这不仅仅是因为老款价格更低。在发展中国家，苹果以前销量很小，如今的增长非常惊人。

The iPad 2, meanwhile, is starting to look like the gadget that will really open up the education world to tablets. Not much need for expensive Retina displays there.

同时，iPad 2似乎正在成为平板电脑打进教育领域的利器。这里不太需要昂贵的Retina显示屏。

Without something new to electrify customers, and with a wider group of more price-conscious buyers getting on board, there is a danger that prices – and profit margins – have only one way to go. Two years ago, the average iPhone and the average iPad each sold for $654. Today, that iPhone has fallen to $581, while the iPad has come down even faster, to $436.

如果拿不出新产品刺激顾客，加上更多对价格更敏感的消费群体的加入，价格以及利润率恐怕只有一条路可走了。2年前，iPhone的平均售价和iPad的平均售价都是654美元。如今，iPhone跌到581美元，iPad降幅更大，降至436美元。

A lower-cost, plastic-cased iPhone – of the type expected later this year – could help to manage this transition. The company could be faulted for not segmenting the smartphone market in this way sooner and for leaving it to older devices to fill in the gaps left by its premium-priced strategy.

预计苹果将于今年年底推出一款价格更低、塑料外壳版的iPhone，有助于应对这一转变。苹果的失误在于，没有尽早这样划分智能手机市场，听任老款机型填补高价策略留下来的真空。

Yet it is important to keep this in perspective. Compared with Samsung, which has been facing much bigger questions about its smartphone business, Apple has succeeded in maintaining an impressive profit margin.

然而，正确地看待这一问题很重要。与智能手机业务所面临问题更为严重的三星(Samsung)相比，苹果成功地保持了高额利润率。

The price tag may have come down, but iPhones still enjoy an impressive premium. And there’s no arguing with the success of a product that can see the sort of acceleration in sales that the iPhone notched up last quarter, which was a slow moment in the product cycle.

iPhone的售价已经降下来，但仍享有较高溢价。上个季度正值产品周期的低迷时刻，在此期间一款像iPhone这样的产品实现了如此幅度的销量加速，其成功毋庸置疑。

Prices could fall harder, of course, if mobile carriers – the real customers for the device in many markets – start to exert more pressure. Many have hoped to wean themselves off the rich subsidies they pay on the devices. But for now, Apple is still calling the shots.

当然，如果移动运营商（在很多市场上，它们才是iPhone的真正客户）开始加大施压力度，价格会进一步大降。很多运营商希望停止高额补贴iPhone。但目前而言，苹果依然掌握主动权。

The other message from the latest earnings is that Apple’s fortunes are still tightly tied to the iPhone.

最新财报透露出的另一条信息是，苹果的命运依然牢牢地系于iPhone。

The number of iPads sold in the first half of this year was 18 per cent more than the year before – impressive, certainly, but not the breakout success that many had hoped for at this point on the device’s adoption curve. The seven-inch iPad mini, though a bona fide hit, seems to have eaten into sales of its bigger sibling rather than giving the overall tablet market a new jolt of growth.

今年上半年的iPad销量同比增幅高于18%，当然也属非常可观，但比不上许多人此刻预期的iPad采纳曲线，仍相去甚远。7英寸的iPad mini虽然确实地大获成功，但似乎部分替代了原有iPad的销量，而未能再次推动整体平板市场的增长。

None of this is to disparage the success of the iPad. But it is a reminder of just how tough an act the iPhone will be to follow. As they grow increasingly impatient for the parade of new gadgets that chief executive Tim Cook has promised for later this year and 2014, that should give investors plenty to chew on.

这些都不能贬低iPad的成功。但这提醒人们注意，iPhone将要效仿的举措何其严峻。苹果首席执行官蒂姆•库克(Tim Cook)承诺将在今年年底和2014年推出一系列新产品，但人们对此日益不耐，这应该引起投资者深思。