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IMF Predicts Slow Global Recovery from Financial Crisis

By Barry Wood

Washington

22 April 2009

IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard says the world is absorbing an enormous shock from the financial crisis and recession that began in the United States in 2007. Blanchard presents an economic outlook sharply reduced from the predictions of only three months ago.

The IMF says the world economy will shrink by 1.3 percent this year, its worst performance in more than 60 years. It says recovery is expected to begin only at the end of the year and that growth will recover to only 1.9 percent in 2010. Blanchard says there has been unprecedented contraction in recent months.

"The collapse of demand has led to sharp cutbacks in production and a dramatic decline in exports. Global GDP went down by an unprecedented six percent, at an annual rate, in the last quarter of 2008. And, as far as we can tell, most likely declined almost as fast in the first quarter of 2009," he said.

The severity of the global downturn has surprised IMF forecasters who only three months ago predicted slight growth, not a downturn, for 2009. Blanchard expects the recovery to be sluggish with unemployment in the major economies peaking only at the end of 2010.

Blanchard and his colleagues believe the fragility of the banking system poses a downside risk to their already gloomy forecast.

"Banks are still very much in the process of retrenching and tightening lending standards. Many securities markets are still poorly functioning. And the longer this goes on the longer and the deeper will be the recession. And the longer and deeper the recession the worse will be the health of the financial system," he said.

The IMF calculates that worldwide losses associated with bad loans, mainly in the U.S. and European housing sectors, could reach $4 trillion by the end of next year. World trade is likely to plunge 11 percent this year, after expanding by three percent in 2008.

The IMF says the U.S. economy is likely to contract by nearly three percent this year and register zero growth in 2010. Growth in the euro-zone (16 economies using the euro currency) is projected to be even more sluggish, negative four percent this year. Japan's economy is predicted to contract by six percent.

China's growth has slowed to 6.5 percent and India's to 4.5 percent. Russia, suffering from last year's sudden collapse in energy prices, is predicted to shrink six percent. Africa, late in being hit by the crisis, is expanding at a two-percent annual rate.

IMF预期：经济衰退将深化 复苏缓慢

国际货币基金组织(IMF)在星期三发表的世界经济展望报告中指出，全球经济衰退将进一步深化，经济复苏将比先前预想的更加缓慢，金融市场将需要更长的时间才能稳定。

*今年收缩1.3% 明年增长1.9%*

总部设在华盛顿的国际货币基金组织(IMF)在最新的半年度世界经济展望报告中说，全球经济今年将收缩1.3%，这将是二战后60多年来最差的表现。可是在今年一月，IMF还预测说，今年的全球经济增长率为0.5%。这家国际借贷机构认为，复苏将从今年年底开始，明年全球经济将增长1.9%，而不是先前预测的3%。

国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家奥利维尔·布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)说，最近几个月经济收缩的幅度是前所未有的。

“需求的崩溃导致生产大幅减少和出口急剧下滑。在2008年最后一个季度，全球GDP折合成年率下降了6%。在我们看来，2009年第一季度全球经济几乎是以同样的速度下降。”

*2010年底达到失业高峰*

全球经济下滑的严重程度使国际货币基金组织的经济学家们感到震惊，因为仅仅在三个月之前，他们还预测2009年全球经济将微幅增长，而不会收缩。布兰查德表示，经济复苏的步伐将非常迟缓，主要经济体的失业状况要等到2010年底才会达到高峰。

布兰查德和他的同事们都表示，银行系统的脆弱性所造成的下行风险使他们感到经济前景暗淡。布兰查德说：

“银行仍然在收紧和加强借贷标准。很多证券市场仍然疲弱不振。这种状况持续的时间越长，经济衰退拖延的时间就会越长，而且越深。而经济衰退越长越深，金融系统的状况就会越来越糟糕。”

根据国际货币基金组织的计算，在明年年底，世界范围内跟坏帐有关的损失可能达到四万亿美元，主要集中在美国和欧洲的房地产领域。世界贸易今年将大幅减少11%。而在去年，世界贸易扩大了3%。

*中国经济增长6.5%*

国际货币基金组织说，美国经济今年将收缩将近3%，2010年的经济增长率为零。欧元区16国的经济状况更差，预计今年将收缩4%。日本经济预计收缩6%。中国的经济增长率将下降到6.5%，印度为4.5%。俄罗斯由于受到去年能源价格突然崩溃的打击，今年的国内生产总值将减少6%。非洲这个最后受到经济危机冲击的地区，今年的经济增长率大约为2%。