The U.K. economy grew for the second straight month in February, but any long-awaited recovery will likely be derailed by the conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed energy prices sharply higher.

2月英国经济连续第二个月实现增长，但这场期待已久的复苏很可能会因中东冲突而脱轨，这场冲突已推动能源价格大幅上涨。



U.K. gross domestic product growth was 0.5% in the middle of the first quarter, compared with 0.1% in January, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal last week anticipated a 0.1% expansion. Month-on-month growth was last stronger in June 2023, when it was 0.6%.

英国国家统计局周四表示，英国第一季度中期国内生产总值增长0.5%，而1月份增长0.1%。 《华尔街日报》上周对经济学家进行的一项调查预测，英国经济将扩张0.1%。 上一次出现更高的月度增长是在2023年6月，当时增长了0.6%。

The February surprise was particularly welcome because the British economy had only expanded in four of the prior seven months, extending a long period of sluggishness that stretches back to the global financial crisis.

2月份的增长出人意料，尤其令人欣慰，因为在此之前的七个月里，英国经济仅有四个月实现扩张，延续了自全球金融危机以来长期低迷的态势。

However, it came before the economy suffered the effects of a jump in energy prices that followed the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Brent crude and European benchmark gas prices have both risen more than 30% since the strikes on Feb. 28.

然而，这是在英国经济遭受美国和以色列袭击伊朗后能源价格飙升影响之前的情况。 自2月28日袭击发生以来，布伦特原油和欧洲基准天然气价格均上涨逾30%。

"The U.K. economy performed strongly in February, but the recovery will likely be short-lived," said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG U.K., in a note to clients.

毕马威英国首席经济学家耶尔·塞尔芬在给客户的一份报告中表示：“英国经济在2月份表现强劲，但复苏很可能是短暂的。”

The Bank of England expects inflation to be higher than previously anticipated, and the impact will be greater the longer the war and its effect on the global energy supply last. The central bank kept its key rate at 3.75% last month. Investors expect at least one rate hike this year, LSEG data showed, flipping expectations before the war that borrowing costs would ease in 2026.

英国央行预计通胀将高于此前预期，且战争及其对全球能源供应的影响持续时间越长，影响就越大。 英国央行上月维持基准利率在3.75%不变。 路孚特数据显示，投资者预计今年至少会加息一次，而战争前的预期是借贷成本将在2026年下降。

The surge in energy costs is a fresh blow to the U.K. economy to come from outside its borders. Activity late last year was buffeted by the higher tariffs imposed by President Trump.

能源成本飙升是英国经济面临的又一场外部冲击。 去年年底，特朗普总统加征的关税已对英国经济活动造成冲击。

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its forecast for U.K. growth this year to 0.8% from 1.3%, the largest downward revision for an advanced economy.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）周二将今年英国经济增长预期从1.3%下调至0.8%，这是对发达经济体做出的最大幅度下调。

The IMF cited the U.K.'s higher reliance on imported gas and expectations of fewer interest-rate cuts as reasons for the downgrade. Inflation is set to continue to pick up toward 4% this year before returning to the Bank of England's 2% target by the end of 2027, as higher energy prices fade and a weakening labor market puts a dampener on growth, the IMF said.

国际货币基金组织将下调预期的原因归结为英国对进口天然气依赖度较高，以及预计降息次数减少。 国际货币基金组织表示，随着能源价格上涨势头减弱以及劳动力市场走弱抑制增长，今年通胀率将继续升至4%左右，然后在2027年底前回落至英国央行2%的目标水平。

The prospect of a fresh slowdown after signs of revival has caused frustration in the U.K. government, with Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves calling the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran a mistake, and urging de-escalation.

在出现复苏迹象后又面临新一轮放缓的前景，令英国政府感到沮丧。英国财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯称美国和以色列袭击伊朗是一个错误，并敦促缓和局势。

"This is a war that we did not start. It was a war that we did not want. I feel very frustrated and angry that the U.S. went into this war without a clear exit plan, without a clear idea of what they were trying to achieve," she told British newspaper the Mirror.

“这场战争不是我们挑起的。 也不是我们想要的。 美国在没有明确退出计划、不清楚自己要实现什么目标的情况下就卷入了这场战争，我感到非常沮丧和愤怒，”她在接受英国《镜报》采访时表示。

Surveys suggest the U.K. economy has slowed since the outbreak of the war. U.K. private-sector activity grew at the slowest pace for six months in March, according to an S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index. Momentum slowed in the services sector, and there was a renewed downturn in manufacturing production, it noted.

调查显示，自战争爆发以来，英国经济已有所放缓。 标普全球采购经理人指数显示，3月份英国私营部门活动增速为六个月来最慢。 该指数指出，服务业增长势头放缓，制造业产出再次下滑。

In February, services output and industrial production both grew 0.5%, while construction activity rose 1.0%, the ONS data showed.

英国国家统计局数据显示，2月份服务业产出和工业生产均增长0.5%，建筑业活动增长1.0%。

The good news is that Britain entered the energy shock on a stronger footing than many expected, according to Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank's chief U.K. economist.

德意志银行首席英国经济学家桑杰·拉贾表示，好消息是，英国在应对能源冲击时的表现强于许多人的预期。

"The bad news is that upward GDP momentum won't last. This will likely be the growth before the energy squeeze. Households will have already started to feel the impact of the Iran energy shock, impacting disposable incomes and discretionary spending," he said in a note.

“坏消息是，国内生产总值增长势头不会持续。 这很可能是能源紧缩前的增长。 伊朗能源冲击对家庭的影响已经显现，可支配收入和可自由支配支出都受到了影响，”他在一份报告中表示。

"As such, expect more sluggish growth into the second quarter and beyond."

“因此，预计第二季度及以后经济增长将更为低迷。”

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