Asia Hasn't Revisited 1997 Crisis

Pointing to the differences between now and the 1997 financial crisis has become an instinctive defense mechanism in Asia. But, 'this is not 1997' is starting to wear thin as the risk of corporate defaults in the region rises.

Certainly, companies and governments in Asia are in far better shape to survive credit-market turmoil than they were a decade ago. Then, 17% of rated high-yield borrowers defaulted.

This faith has helped keep Asia's domestic bond markets functioning relatively smoothly, even if the cost of borrowing has increased with the global credit squeeze.

But weaknesses are starting to emerge, and a default by a big borrower could spook investors.

In the junk-bond market, Hong Kong's 3D-Gold Jewellery Holdings, hit by employee fraud, last week failed to pay interest on a $170 million bond. And credit-guarantee company China Orienwise is at risk of defaulting on the first-ever high-yield offering from China's financial-services industry, according to the credit-rating firm Moody's.

These are small cases, but the market for credit-default swaps -- or insurance against companies going belly up -- is screaming danger. An index tracking CDS prices in Asia, excluding Japan, rose to a record level Thursday, as did a separate benchmark of contracts on Australian companies.

Because CDS are also used by speculators simply to profit from sudden increases in market panic, they might be exaggerating the degree of concern among debt holders.

Clearly, conditions are improving as a result of policy efforts world-wide. But ratings companies are raising concerns. In the third quarter, Moody's took 17 negative ratings actions in Asia, compared with just two positive.

Where might defaults come from? Moody's figures the Asian companies most at risk are those in the technology, shipping and property sectors.

指出当前形势与1997年金融危机的差异已经成了亚洲的本能防御机制。但随着亚洲地区的公司违约风险上升，“现在并非1997年”的说法也开始变得苍白无力。

当然，比起十年前，亚洲的公司和各国政府现在能更好地经受信贷危机的冲击。当时，以高收益率发债的公司有17%出现违约。

这种信心帮助保持了亚洲本地债券市场相对平稳地运行，虽然发债成本也因全球信贷紧缩而有所上升。

但市场已开始显露疲软迹象，而大型发债公司出现违约的情况可能会让投资者心惊胆战。

在垃圾债券市场，因员工欺诈而受到打击的香港的金至尊珠宝控股有限公司(3D-Gold Jewellery Holdings Ltd.)上周未能为1.70亿美元的债券支付派息。据信用评级公司穆迪公司(Moody's Corporation)的数据，信用担保公司中科智(China Orienwise)存在违约风险，这批债券是中国金融服务企业发行的首批高收益债券。

这些都不算太严重，但信贷违约掉期市场已经发出警告。跟踪除日本之外的亚洲信贷违约掉期价格的一个指数周四上升至创纪录的水平，另一个跟踪澳大利亚公司的指数也是一样。

由于信贷违约掉期还被投机者用来在市场恐慌情绪突然增加时获利，因而可能夸大了债券持有者的忧虑程度。

显然，由于全球都在出台政策应对金融危机，市场状况也在好转。但评级公司加剧了市场的担忧情绪。第三季度，穆迪公司在亚洲进行了17次评级下调，而只有两次上调。

违约将会出现在哪些领域？穆迪公司认为风险最大的亚洲公司是科技、航运和房地产领域的公司。