China’s central bank this week faced reality and revised down its inflation estimate to half the level targeted by Beijing, implying it is failing — as global peers have before — to combat the threat of deflation.

中国央行(PBoC)本周正视现实，将通胀预测下调至政府目标水平的一半。此举暗示中国央行抗击通缩威胁的努力没有成功，就像它的全球同行已经发现的那样。

That is not only bad news for a country struggling to stimulate growth, it also threatens a ripple effect around the world: cheap made-in-China goods contained price rises around the world when that was a force for good.

这不仅对于一个正绞尽脑汁刺激增长的国家是个坏消息，其涟漪效应还可能波及全世界：廉价的“中国制造”商品曾在世界各地遏制价格上涨，起到有益的作用。

Now, as Europe, Japan and the US struggle with stagnant or falling prices, the spectre of exported deflation is a far from benevolent force.

如今，在欧洲、日本和美国都在艰难应对物价水平停滞甚至下降之际，输入性通缩的“魅影”远非良性影响。

China’s consumer price inflation fell to an annual rate of 1.2 per cent in May, down from 1.5 per cent in and well below the government's official target of “around 3 per cent” for 2015. Wholesale prices have already been in deflationary territory for more than three years.

5月，中国全国居民消费价格总水平(CPI)同比上涨1.2%，低于4月1.5%的涨幅，也远低于政府2015年“约3%”的官方目标。工业生产者购进价格指数已持续逾3年通缩。

This week researchers at the People’s Bank of China — led by Ma Jun, the former Deutsche Bank economist who now heads the central bank's research bureau — cut its full-year CPI forecast to 1.4 per cent, down from the 2.2 per cent projection published in December.

本周，以德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)前经济学家、现任中国央行研究局首席经济学家的马骏为首，中国央行几位研究者将全年CPI预测下调至1.4%，低于去年12月发布的2.2%的预测值。

The PBoC researchers cautioned that their forecasts were intended to “facilitate scholarly exchanges” and did not represent official central bank views.

中国央行的研究者们告诫道，他们的预测是为了“利于开展学术交流”，不代表央行的官方立场。

Still, the gap between the inflation forecast and the government's official target suggests officials are well aware that monetary easing measures adopted so far are not enough to boost price growth to the government’s desired level.

话虽如此，通胀预测与政府官方目标的差距似乎表明，官员们非常清楚：迄今采取的放松货币政策的措施，不足以使物价增速达到政府期望的水平。

For Chinese companies and local governments grappling with heavy debt burdens — the legacy of the credit-fuelled economic stimulus launched in 2008 — deflation raises the real cost of repaying debt and obtaining fresh financing.

2008年发起的由信贷助燃的经济刺激的后遗症，仍在影响着中国企业和地方政府，它们背负着沉重债务，而通缩将提高它们偿还债务和获取新鲜融资的实际成本。

McKinsey estimates that China’s non-financial debt reached 217 per cent of gross domestic product by mid-2014, more than that of the US. Corporate debt accounted for more than half the China total.

据麦肯锡(McKinsey)估测，到2014年中期，中国非金融债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比已达217%，高于美国。公司债务占到中国债务总额的一半以上。

The PBoC has cut benchmark interest rates three times since November by a total of 0.75 percentage points. It has also cut the level of reserves banks are required to hold by 1.5 percentage points and injected funds into the financial system through a variety of newly created direct lending facilities.

去年11月以来，中国央行已三次降息，总降幅达0.75个百分点。央行还累计降低银行存款准备金率1.5个百分点，并通过一系列新创的直接贷款工具向金融体系注入资金。

Yet despite these measures, HSBC economists estimate that inflation-adjusted interest rates for factories averaged 10 per cent in the first five months of 2014, higher than the average level of 2014.

尽管采取了这些举措，据汇丰(HSBC)经济学家们估计，2015年头5个月，制造业面对的经通胀调整的利率平均仍有10%，高于2014年平均水平。

“The financing costs of the real economy remain high. We expect more policy easing measures, including a 50 basis point reserve ratio cut in the coming week,” Julia Wang, HSBC’s greater China economist, wrote this week.

汇丰大中华区经济学家王然(Julia Wang)本周写道：“实体经济的融资成本仍然高昂。我们预计会有更多放松政策的举措出台，包括下周降准50个基点。”

Yet some economists are questioning whether even lower financing can help, warning that China risks falling into a so-called “balance-sheet recession” in which monetary policy loses its effectiveness because highly indebted companies are unwilling to invest even at ultra-low interest rates.

然而，一些经济学家正在质疑进一步降低融资成本能否起作用。他们警告称，中国面临滑入所谓“资产负债表衰退”的风险，在这种情形下，货币政策失效，因为企业负债极高，即便利率极低也不愿投资。

“Companies’ willingness to invest is low and demand for loans is relatively weak,” the PBoC researchers noted in their report.

中国央行的研究者们在他们的报告中指出：“企业投资意愿较低，贷款需求较弱。”

Beyond downward pressure on global prices, China's deflation problem could exacerbate the capital outflow the country is already experiencing, as investors anticipate lower interest rates in China and seek higher yields abroad.

除了对全球物价水平造成下行压力以外，中国的通缩问题还可能加剧中国已经遭遇的资本外流，这是因为投资者会产生中国将降息的预期，从而在海外寻求更高收益率。