‘The authorities are hesitant to increase regulation as this is one of the most exciting areas of Chinese finance’

两年前，在线货币市场基金的问世改变了数百万中国人投资自己储蓄的方式。自那以来，中国的资产管理行业出现了爆炸式增长。

China’s asset management industry has had explosive growth in the last two years after the arrival of online money market funds transformed the way millions of Chinese invest their savings.

然而，货币基金飙升的人气，导致多名投资专家对该行业正在蓄积的风险表示严重担忧。

The booming popularity of money funds, however, has led several investment experts to raise serious concerns about risks developing in the industry as a result.

此类货币基金的吸引力很大，因为它们大都能提供4%至6%的年收益率，而储户银行存款的利率仅为3%。高盛资产管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)数据显示，较高的收益率使得货币市场基金管理的资产规模在过去四年间增长近15倍，截至2014年底达到1.9万亿元人民币（合1780亿美元）。

The funds’ appeal is strong given most of them offer annual returns of 4-6 per cent, compared with the 3 per cent Chinese individuals receive on their bank deposits. The returns have helped money market funds’ assets under management grow nearly 15-fold in the past four years to Rmb1.9tn ($178bn) at the end of 2014, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School)高级讲师、曾任美国历史最悠久的共同基金公司——MFS Investment Management董事长的罗伯特•波曾(Robert Pozen)担心，投资者被高利率所吸引，却对其中的风险一无所知。

Robert Pozen, senior lecturer at Harvard Business School and former chairman of MFS Investment Management, the oldest US mutual fund company, fears investors are being drawn to the high interest rates without any understanding of the risks.

他说，这类基金提供高利率，但“它们没有解释，许多情况下这类票据并非优质。它们在本质上是我们在美国所称的初级垃圾基金——通常低于投资级、利率每天波动，而且时常发生违约的票据。

The funds offer high interest rates, he says, but “they are not explaining that in many cases this type of paper is not top quality. This is essentially what we would call primary junk funds in the US – paper that’s usually below investment grade, fluctuates daily in terms of interest rates and from time to time defaults.

“巨大的风险在于在网上向相对外行的投资者兜售，这些人可能都不知道他们在投资什么。真的有可能赔钱。”

“The big risk is selling to relatively unsophisticated investors over the internet who probably do not know what they are getting into. There is a real possibility of loss here.”

在现金涌入在线货币基金的过程中，最大赢家是中国的大型互联网公司，如阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、腾讯(Tencent)和百度(Baidu)。它们很快意识到，在互联网上向那些习惯在线交易的顾客销售货币基金，可以做成大产业。

The biggest winners from the influx of cash into online money funds have been large Chinese internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. They were quick to recognise that selling money funds over the internet to consumers who were comfortable with online transactions could translate into big business.

阿里巴巴旗下的货币基金余额宝（意思为剩余的财富）尤其成功，它面向该集团在线支付平台支付宝(Alipay)的用户销售。只需点击一下，现金就可以从银行账户转移到余额宝。在不到两年时间里，余额宝的资产已从零增至5780亿元人民币（合930亿美元）。

Alibaba’s money fund Yu’E Bao (Leftover Treasure), which is distributed to users of the group’s online payment platform Alipay, has been particularly successful. Cash transfers from bank accounts to Yu’E Bao take just one click. Its assets have risen from zero to Rmb578bn ($93bn) in less than two years.

评级机构惠誉(Fitch)将散户投资者现金流入这些基金的水平列为令人担忧的理由。该机构在上月撰写的一份报告中指出，追求高收益率的散户投资者在市场受到压力时很容易表现出群体行为模式，这可能导致“周期性大规模资金外流”。

Rating agency Fitch has highlighted the level of retail investor cash flowing into the funds as a cause for concern. It noted in a report written last month that yield-hungry retail investors are prone to herding patterns of behaviour when markets become stressed, which could lead to “periods of mass fund exodus”.

惠誉分析师阿拉斯泰尔•休厄尔(Alastair Sewell)和黄莉(Li Huang)称，这尤其令人担忧，因为中国的零售货币基金大量投资于长期存款和债券，以保持有竞争力的收益率。这类货币基金的最低投资门槛仅为1元人民币，而且投资者可随时将其兑现，潜在制造巨大的流动性不匹配。

This is particularly worrying because Chinese retail money funds invest heavily in deposits and bonds with long maturity dates in order to keep yields competitive, say Fitch analysts Alastair Sewell and Li Huang. The money funds have a minimum investment threshold of just Rmb1 and investors can redeem their holdings at any time, potentially creating a large liquidity mismatch.

惠誉的这两位分析师说：“由于电商货币市场基金面向散户，它们的投资者基础倾向于较不稳定。”在市场承压时满足兑现要求，“可能给那些对流动性较差的证券敞口较高的基金、规模较大的基金以及投资者基础比较集中的基金带来挑战”。满足资金大量外流的需要“可能造成问题”。

“Since e-commerce money market funds are retail-focused, they tend to have a less stable investor base,” say the Fitch analysts. Meeting redemptions in a stressed market “may challenge those funds with higher exposures to less liquid securities, larger funds and those with more concentrated investor bases”. Meeting large outflows “could be problematic”.

流入在线货币市场基金的资金在2015年已经放缓，但多数评论人士都认为，它们将在未来两年继续吸引大量散户投资者。评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)副总裁Stephen Tu说，中国的货币基金“在中国储蓄和流动性总量中只占相对较小的百分比”。考虑到拥有较大客户网络的新的科技公司继续进入货币基金业，被吸引至这类产品的投资者数量很可能会扩大。

Flows to online money market funds have slowed in 2015 but most commentators agree that they will continue to attract large numbers of retail investors in the next two years. Stephen Tu, vice-president of rating agency Moody’s, says Chinese money funds have “only captured a relatively small percentage of the total savings and liquidity in China”. The pool of investors drawn to such products is likely to expand given new technology companies with big customer networks continue to enter the money fund industry.

世界第三大智能手机制造商小米(Xiaomi)是最新进入这个行业的科技公司。小米上月表示，将与易方达基金管理公司(E Fund Management)联手，通过小米操作系统捆绑的一款理财app销售一只货币市场基金。

Xiaomi, the world’s third-largest smartphone maker, is the latest. It said last month it would team up with asset manager E Fund Management to sell a money-market fund through a finance app bundled on the technology company’s operating system.

“这是一个方兴未艾的环境，可能会有更多新入行者，”Stephen Tu说，“长期而言，我们可能会看到少数几个主要公司提供此类服务。”他补充说，在线货币市场基金比传统的银行账户更为方便。

“It’s a nascent environment now and there are likely to be more entrants,” says Mr Tu. “In the long run, we could see a handful of key players providing these services.” Online money market funds are more convenient than traditional bank accounts, he adds.

他同意，该行业的迅猛发展是一个潜在问题，但他认为中国金融服务业的其他领域——尤其是影子银行和民间借贷——需要更紧迫的关注。

Mr Tu agrees that the rapid growth of the industry is a potential concern but believes other areas of China’s financial services industry – notably shadow banking and private lending – require more immediate attention.

位于上海的资产管理咨询公司泽奔咨询(Z-Ben Advisors)的分析师克里斯•鲍尔斯(Chris Powers)补充道，一些人对于货币基金的关注或许是错误的。“在中国，很难真正地隔离货币市场基金，”他说，“人们对中国所有的金融产品都感到忧虑，货币市场基金很可能被视为最安全的产品。我不认为中国的投资者对风险有任何担忧。”

Chris Powers, analyst at Z-Ben Advisors, the Shanghai-based asset management consultancy, adds that the focus by some on money funds is perhaps misplaced. “It’s difficult in China to really isolate money market funds,” he says. “There is concern about all financial products in China and money market funds would probably be considered the most secure. I don’t think there is any concern [among] investors here about the risks.”

在一定程度上，由于货币基金的发展被视为中国市场自由化的成果，中国政府或许在犹豫要不要对该行业加强监督。“我认为当局对于（加强对货币市场基金的）监管犹豫不决，因为这是中国最令人振奋的金融领域之一，”鲍尔斯说，“它们正让官方达到许多目的。”

The Chinese government may be stalling on applying more rigorous oversight to money funds partly because the industry’s growth is considered a success for China’s market liberalisation. “I think the authorities are hesitant to [increase] regulation [of the funds] as it is one of the most exciting areas of Chinese finance,” says Mr Powers. “They are accomplishing a lot of their goals here.”

但鲍尔斯指出，中国央行对一些货币基金向散户推销的方式表达了担忧，“你的确能看到8%或者9%这样极为诱人的收益保证，”他说。

But the People’s Bank of China has expressed concern about how some money funds are being marketed to retail investors, notes Mr Powers. “You do see aggressive 8 or 9 per cent guarantees,” he says.

哈佛商学院的波曾表示，中国当局应该更主动地解决这些问题。“中国投资者是否了解他们买的是什么类型的基金？”波曾问，“他们是否意识到这是一种上下波动的垃圾债券基金，而不是安全的货币市场基金？”

The Chinese authorities should be more proactive about addressing such issues, according to Mr Pozen. “Do investors in China know what kind of fund they are getting into?” he asks. “Do they realise it is a fluctuating junk bond fund and not a safe money market fund?

“我敢打赌很多人不了解这些风险。”他补充道，这些基金需要打上正确的标签，它们的基础资产的价值也需要得到“恰当披露”。

“I bet a lot of people do not understand those risks.” These funds need to be labelled properly, he adds, and the value of their underlying holdings needs to be “disclosed properly”.