| For the European Central Bank, this could be as easy as monetary policy gets. Markets may fret over sub-1% inflation readings and the strength of the euro. But barring a fresh economic shock that derails the euro-zone recovery, monetary policy looks firmly on hold. |
| 对欧洲央行(European Central Bank)而言,只要搞定了货币政策就一切都妥当了。市场或许对低于1%的通胀数字和欧元走强感到不安,但除非是出现新一轮经济冲击,给欧元区的经济复苏造成破坏,否则该行的货币政策看来是要雷打不动了。 |
| On Thursday, the ECB once again left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, disappointing those who had expected a small rate cut. There was no action on liquidity either, despite chatter around the possibility of ending the sterilization of the ECB's crisis-era Securities Markets Program, which might have injected EUR175 billion ($240 billion) into the system. |
| 欧洲央行周四再度将利率保持在0.25%不变,这让那些原本以为央行会小幅降息的人士预期落空。尽管传言称,欧洲央行有可能不再冲销危机时期通过证券市场计划(Securities Markets Program)向金融系统注入的1,750亿美元流动性,但央行在流动性方面也没有新举动。 |
| And the tone from ECB President Mario Draghi was resolute: the recovery is on track, trumping fears about low inflation. Mr. Draghi was at pains to explain that inflation--estimated at 0.8% in February--was being depressed largely by lower energy costs. That might have accounted for two-thirds of the 1.9-percentage-point fall in inflation since early 2012, he said. Furthermore, the strength of the euro might account for another 0.4 point of weakness in inflation. |
| 欧洲央行行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的讲话语气很坚决:经济正处于复苏的轨道上,低通胀不足为虑。德拉吉绞尽脑汁地想让大家明白通胀率(预计2月份为0.8%)较低主要是因为能源成本下降。他表示,自2012年初以来,通胀率下降了1.9个百分点,其中三分之二或归因于能源成本下降;还有0.4个百分点的降幅归因于欧元走强。 |
| The ECB is cutting things fine. Its projections for inflation only just meet the criteria for not doing more: Inflation in 2016 is forecast at 1.5%, well short of the target of 'below, but close to' 2%. But crucially, by the fourth quarter of 2016, it is seen rising to 1.7%. That is just about high enough to allow the ECB to claim it is sticking to its mandate. |
| 欧洲央行将一切安排得恰到好处,对通胀率的预期刚好与目标相符。虽然对2016年通胀率的预期为1.5%,低于该行所设的“低于但接近”2%的目标,但该行预计,到2016年第四季度通胀率将升至1.7%,这一点十分重要。这差不多就足以让欧洲央行理直气壮地声称该行在这一目标上一直坚定不移。 |
| Forecasts so far into the future must be taken with a pinch of salt. But the story the ECB is telling is at least clear: growth will gradually accelerate, and inflation will very move toward the target. The ECB shows no desire to juice the recovery or push inflation higher, marking a break with other major global central banks that have sought actively to accelerate economic growth from lackluster levels. Indeed, many of Mr. Draghi's comments seemed aimed at showing that simply maintaining current policy would be enough to support the recovery. Additionally, he noted that many of the problems the euro zone faces are structural--implying that monetary policy isn't the solution. |
| 对于欧洲央行目前为止对未来的预期虽然不一定要全信,但欧洲央行给出的解释至少是很清楚的,即经济将逐渐加速增长,通胀率将朝着目标水平靠近。欧洲央行没有表现出要为经济复苏添砖加瓦的迹象,也没有表现出要推动通胀率上升的意思,这与那些忙着为经济增长提供助力的其他央行形成鲜明对比。的确,德拉吉的很多言论似乎都在表明,仅仅维持政策现状就足以支持经济复苏。此外,他还指出,欧元区面临的很多问题都属于结构性问题,这就等于在暗示依靠货币政策并非解决之道。 |
| The euro may yet give Mr. Draghi and his colleagues a headache. Thanks to the ECB's inaction, it jumped more than one cent against the dollar to a new high for the year around $1.387. With U.S. economic data decidedly mixed and U.S. rates on hold, there may be little to stop further gains, which would weigh on inflation again. |
| 欧元或许还会让德拉吉及其同僚伤脑筋。由于欧洲央行不作为,欧元兑美元上涨了逾0.01美元,至今年以来新高1.387美元左右。而美元经济数据分化严重,并且美国利率保持不变,欧元兑美元的涨势可能会无法遏制,这种状况将让通货膨胀再次承压。 |
| Inflation data may be volatile in March and April due to the timing of Easter. But the ECB seems likely to look through short-term moves. Mr. Draghi Thursday called the euro area an 'island of stability.' That certainly looks likely to apply to monetary policy. |
| 受复活节影响,3、4月份的通胀数据或许会有些波动,但欧洲央行看似对短期波动并不介意。德拉吉周四称欧元区是一座“稳定的岛屿”。这种评价至少对央行的货币政策也是适用的。 |