Outsourcing/ value chain deconstruction

人们通常认为，驶入大部分发达国家港口的大型集装箱船只满载的都是廉价电子产品、玩具以及其他成品，这些货物最终将摆到商店货架上。但事实情况却更加复杂。集装箱里面很多都是用于工业加工的部件、化学品以及其他半成品部件。

The vast container ships that sail into the ports of most developed countries are often thought to be full of cheap electronics, toys and other finished goods, bound for shop shelves, writes Robert Wright. The truth is more complicated, however. Many of the containers bring components, chemicals and other semi-finished parts for industrial processes.

这些部件在全世界的生产线上转移。问题是，2008年金融危机以来世界经济的巨大变化，以及最近一些自然灾害导致供应链经历的一系列震荡，将如何在根本上重塑这一体系。

Those components are moving along production lines that stretch around the world. The question is how fundamentally the vast changes in the world economy following the 2008 financial crisis – and a series of shocks to supply chains following recent natural disasters – will reshape the system.

由于担忧衰退期间货物再次被大量积压，很多公司已经开始减少库存。这进一步给货运商增加了压力，因为他们要在很紧的日程内送达货物。

Many companies have started to carry less stock, concerned that they might again be left with significant unsold inventory in a downturn. That has further increased the pressure on shippers to deliver goods to a tight schedule.

包裹及物流公司UPS首席执行官斯科特·戴维斯(Scott Davis)表示：“我们处在一个零库存的世界里。”UPS是外包趋势的一个主要受益者。

“We’re in a just-in-time world,” says Scott Davis, chief executive of UPS, the parcel and logistics company, a major beneficiary of the outsourcing trend.

一方面面临中国工资上涨，另一方面努力快速调整产品线，很多制造商已经将一些生产转移到墨西哥、土耳其、以及其他一些更靠近世界最大消费经济体的国家。

Many manufacturers, facing rising wages in China and struggling to make quick changes to their product lines, have moved some operations to Mexico, Turkey and other countries nearer the world’s biggest consumer economies.

高油价也是一个影响因素。时间上不那么紧急的货物现在由曾经的空运，改为船运或卡车运输。和过去十年相比，货运量的整体增长快于经济增速的程度再也没那么高。

High oil prices are also a factor. Less time-critical goods that once went by air often move by ship or truck instead. And overall growth in freight movements is no longer outpacing economic growth to the same degree as it did for much of the past decade.

相较于21世纪头十年的外包繁荣时期，国际供应链的很多基本要素现在基本上没有发生变化，但却注重于在更广泛的市场上服务消费者。物流运营商们正争相在新兴市场收购或者建立更好的运货渠道。

Many of the essentials of the international supply chain remain much as they were during the outsourcing boom of the 2000s, but are focused on serving consumers in a wider range of markets. Logistics operators are scrambling to acquire or set up better delivery operations in emerging markets.

戴维斯表示：“预计未来30年新兴市场每周将新增100万人口，因此今后跨境贸易的势头会一直非常强劲。”

“With projections that they will add 1m people a week for the next 30 years, we’re going to see cross-border trade stay very strong for years to come,” Davis says.

译者/王慧玲