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各国央行转持风险较高资产

发布者: sunny214 | 发布时间: 2013-4-9 08:00| 查看数: 843| 评论数: 0|

Traditionally conservative central bankers are significantly altering their investment behaviour by placing their vast piles of cash in riskier assets and exotic currencies to compensate for ultra-low returns on US Treasuries, according to a poll of officials responsible for almost $7tn in reserves. 一项对央行官员进行的调查显示,向来保守的央行官员们正在显著改变投资风格,将规模庞大的现金储备投向风险较高的资产以及外汇,以弥补所持美国国债的超低收益率。受访官员负责管理的储备资产规模合计接近7万亿美元。

The world’s central bankers together manage reserves worth $10.9tn, most of which is held by monetary authorities in Asia and the Middle East. The bulk of their reserves, usually accumulated from attempts to curb their currencies’ gains, are held in the form of US government debt as well as the bonds of the safer eurozone states. 世界各国的央行官员共计管理着价值10.9万亿美元的外汇储备,其中绝大部分由亚洲、中东国家的货币管理当局持有。这些地区的外汇储备主要是通过实施抑制本币升值的举措积累起来的,并且大部分被用于购买美国政府债券以及较为安全的欧元区国家债券。

But near-zero interest rates and large scale money printing have cut returns on these assets to record lows. At the same time, the value of the dollar, euro and other traditional reserve currencies has fallen, forcing central bankers to diversify or risk losses on their investment portfolios. 但近乎为零的利率水平以及各国的大规模印钞行为导致国债类资产的收益率降至历史低点。与此同时,美元、欧元以及其他传统储备货币出现贬值,迫使各国央行官员分散投资,否则将面临自身投资组合可能发生损失的风险。

A poll of 60 central bankers responsible for reserves worth $6.7tn, conducted by the trade journal Central Banking Publications and the Royal Bank of Scotland, sheds light on the secretive world of official sector investments. The response to the crisis by the major monetary authorities has had a profound impact, the poll found: more than four-fifths of respondents said the aggressive monetary easing of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank had altered their behaviour. 行业期刊《央行杂志》(Central Banking Publications)以及苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)对60位央行官员进行了调查,向人们揭示了神秘的官方投资领域。这些官员负责管理的储备资产规模高达6.7万亿美元。主要国家货币管理当局应对金融危机的举措产生了深远的影响,调查发现:超过五分之四的受访者表示,美联储(Federal Reserve)和欧洲央行(Central Bank)激进的货币宽松政策改变了他们的投资操作。

Central bankers have invested in currencies which until recently they would have avoided, along with riskier, higher-yielding assets such as equities and lower-rated government bonds. 央行官员们现已转而投资于股票、信用评级较低的政府债券等高风险高收益资产,以及直到不久以前他们还一直避免投资的外汇。

Respondents to the poll said their forays into an array of foreign currencies would help stabilise global financial markets. But the shift in recent years out of traditional reserve currencies has spooked some foreign exchange investors, even though that move still only makes up just over 6 per cent of central banks’ total investments. 此次调查的受访者表示,他们尝试投资于一系列外汇的举措有助于稳定全球金融市场。但近年来资金流出传统储备货币的趋势已使部分外汇市场投资者感到紧张,即使流出资金的规模在全球央行的投资总额中仅占6%。

Other investors fear that the size of monetary authorities’ cash piles and the lack of transparency among some of the major reserves managers in Asia and the Middle East risk destabilising markets. 还有一些投资者则担心,货币管理当局的现金储备规模,以及亚洲和中东某些主要储备管理机构在运作上缺乏透明度,可能构成引发市场动荡的风险。

The most popular alternative currencies were the Australian and Canadian dollars, the Scandinavian currencies and the Chinese renminbi. About four-fifths of respondents said they already invested, or would now consider investing, a portion of their reserves in Australian or Canadian dollars. More than 40 per cent said they already invested in, or would now consider investing in, the renminbi. 最受欢迎的替代储备货币包括澳元、加元、斯堪的纳维亚国家货币以及人民币。约有五分之四的受访者表示,他们已经或者正在考虑将部分储备资金投向澳元或者加元。超过40%的受访者则表示,他们已经或者正在考虑投资于人民币。

About half had already, or were now considering, branching out into the three Scandinavian currencies and the New Zealand dollar. Fourteen per cent either already owned, or were now considering owning, assets denominated in Brazilian real. 约有一半的受访者则已经或者正在考虑投资于斯堪的纳维亚地区的三种货币以及新西兰元。14%的受访者目前已经持有或者正在考虑持有以巴西雷亚尔计值的资产。

Thirty per cent of respondents, responsible for managing reserves worth $2.5tn, said they were likely to buy equities – in the past anathema to central banks because of the higher risk associated with shares – though almost half did not think this would happen for at least five years. 30%的受访者表示他们可能购买股票资产,他们所负责管理的储备规模达2.5万亿美元。但近半数的人则认为,至少五年之内不会采取此种做法。股票过去一直是央行不愿涉足的资产类型,因其风险较高。

Highlighting their frustrations with low returns on US Treasuries and German Bunds, reserve managers viewed lower grade single A rated sovereigns and US government agency paper as more attractive than a year ago. 储备管理者们认为,信用评级较低的单A级主权债以及美国政府机构债相对于一年以前更具吸引力,这凸显出了美国和德国国债收益率低迷令他们感到失望。

The poll also found that central bankers remain reliant on credit rating agencies, despite attempts by the Group of 20 leading industrialised nations to wean investors off their dependence on Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in judging the credit worthiness of bonds. 此次调查还发现,央行官员仍然依赖于信用评级机构,虽然由主要工业化国家组成的20国集团(Group of 20)试图使投资者在判断债券的信用状况时逐步减少对穆迪(Moody's)、标准普尔(Standard and Poor's)以及惠誉(Fitch)的依赖。

More than four-fifths of respondents had not altered their investment practices as a result of the G20 guidance. However, almost half of those polled said they were spending more on resources to better assess the credit worthiness of certain assets. 超过五分之四的受访者并未因G20的指导意见而改变投资操作。但近一半受访者表示,他们投入了更多资源以更好地判断某些资产的信用可靠性。


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