The shift of global economic momentum towards advanced economies has left G20 leaders grappling with the risks posed by the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus and a potential new wave of protectionism.

在经济增长势头从新兴经济转向发达经济体之际，20国集团(G20)领导人不得不应对美国退出货币刺激及潜在的新一轮保护主义带来的风险。

After years of agonising over sluggish growth in the developed countries, G20 leaders confronted fears that turmoil in some emerging markets – including India – posed a serious new threat to global growth.

多年以来，G20领导人一直在为发达国家乏力增长而伤透脑筋，如今他们却开始担忧，一些新兴经济体（包括印度）的动荡可能会给全球增长带来新的严重威胁。

China entered the intensifying debate over the global impact of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy yesterday, when it urged the world’s largest economy to be “mindful of the spillover effects” as it weighs reducing its support for financial markets.

美联储(Fed)货币政策的全球影响引发了日益激烈的讨论，中国昨日也加入了这场讨论，敦促全球最大经济体美国在考虑减少对金融市场支持之时，“警惕由此引发的溢出效应”。

Amid fears that the tapering of US quantitative easing – a policy that led to a flood of capital into emerging economies – will cause serious disruption, G20 officials were working overnight on the delicate task of framing communiqué language on the issue.

量化宽松政策一度导致大量资金流入新兴经济体，外界担心美国缩减量化宽松规模可能带来严重破坏。为此G20官员正连夜拟定有关该问题的公报措辞，这是一项颇为棘手的任务。

The US argues that it will only withdraw QE when the US economy is growing strongly and that dynamism in the world’s biggest economy would itself help to drive global growth.

美国指出，只有等到美国经济增长强劲，且增势足以使美国成为全球增长引擎的时候，才会退出量化宽松政策。

But with the prospect that the start of tapering is close, emerging markets have suffered worrying declines, leading Zhu Guangyao, China’s deputy finance minister, to add to remarks by other emerging economy top officials in arguing that the US has a responsibility beyond its domestic economic concerns. “We hope that as the issuing country of the largest reserve currency in the world the United States should be mindful of the spillover effects of its macro economic policies,” Mr Zhu said yesterday, adding that he hoped all G20 members would strengthen co-ordination and be aware of the impact of their policies.

但鉴于缩减量化宽松可能即将启动，面对新兴经济体令人担忧的增长放缓迹象，中国财政部副部长朱光耀指出，美国有义务考虑国内经济政策对其他国家的影响。其他新兴经济体的高级官员也发表了同样的意见。朱光耀昨日表示，希望美国作为全球世界最大储备货币的发行国，关注自身宏观经济政策带来的外力性影响。他还希望所有G20成员国加强宏观经济政策的协调，更加关注自身政策的外溢性。

Mr Zhu added that balance of payments problems in the developing world were partly due to lack of economic reform. This was echoed by a British official who said that emerging economies had been pumped up by cheap money from advanced nations, disguising the need to follow through on reforms.

朱光耀补充道，发展中国家发生国际收支支付困难，部分原因在于经济改革不到位。一位英国官员也认同这一观点，并指出新兴经济体的增长一直受到发达国家廉价资金的推动，推迟了所需改革。

Currencies such as those of India, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil have been under pressure because of their current account deficits. To address the risks ahead, the Brics group of emerging economies – led by China – will contribute $100bn to a fund that once functioning would aim to stabilise foreign exchange markets. The amount?is?smaller than originally expected and there was not much more detail apart from the amount.

由于经常账目出现赤字，印度、印尼、土耳其和巴西等国的货币一直处于压力之中。为了应对未来的风险，以中国为主首的金砖国家(Brics)新兴经济体将创建一个总额1000亿美元的基金，用来稳定外汇储备市常该基金的规模低于原先预期，除了数额之外，目前没有透露更多的细节。

Analysts said it was still far from clear that the fund would have the firepower or the mechanisms to counter a full-blown crisis in emerging markets, but added that the political incentive for its members to build an effective institution was strong.

分析师表示，现在还不清楚该基金是否具备了足够多的弹药和机制，来抵御一场新兴市场全面危机，但也补充说，成员国创建一家有效机构的政治意愿非常强烈。

“If any one of these countries was hit by a significant speculative attack, this would run dry,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, strategist at Commerzbank, but added that China – which has committed $41bn even though its own currency is not freely traded – had both a geopolitical interest and an economic interest in preventing turbulence among key trading partners.

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)策略师乌尔里希·洛伊希特曼(Ulrich Leuchtmann)说：“如果这些国家中的任何一个遭遇严重的投机性冲击，基金的资金储备就会干涸。”但他补充到，避免关键贸易伙伴出现动荡，既符合中国的地缘政治利益，又符合中国的经济利益。尽管人民币还不是自由兑换货币，中国仍承诺向该基金提供410亿美元资金。

The turmoil in emerging markets has prompted an about-turn by the International Monetary Fund over its view on the global economic outlook. In a note produced for the G20, the IMF dropped its view that developing economies were the dynamic engine of the world economy, saying instead “momentum is projected to come mainly from advanced economies, where output is expected to accelerate”.

新兴经济体的动荡促使国际货币基金组织(IMF)对全球经济前景预测做出重大调整。在为G20准备的一份简报中，IMF已经不再将新兴经济体称为全球经济的强力引擎，而是指出“推动力将主要来自发达经济体，它们的产出预期将加速增长。”

Meanwhile, there were fears that further imbalances between advanced economies and emerging markets could spark more protectionism, after the European Commission found that 154 “trade restrictive” measures were introduced worldwide last year. While the EU and Canada edged closer to a trade deal, Argentina and Brazil were attempting to water down G20 language on protectionism.

与此同时，欧盟委员会(European Commission)发现，去年全球共出台了154项“贸易限制性”举措，导致人们担忧发达经济体和新兴经济体之间的进一步失衡可能会加剧保护主义泛滥。欧盟(EU)和加拿大已接近达成一项贸易协议，阿根廷和巴西则试图淡化G20关于保护主义的措辞。

G20 officials were trying to get agreement to ban further protectionist measures until 2016, but Argentina and Brazil have tried to bring forward that date to allow them more leeway to erect trade barriers. Both countries declined to comment.

G20官员在努力达成一项协议，以防止在2016年前出现更多的保护主义措施，但阿根廷和巴西则试图将这一日期推后，以便它们有更多的余地来建立贸易壁垒。两国都拒绝对此发表评论。

One western G20 official said protectionism was “the dog that didn’t bark” following the 2008 crash, but there were fears that it might re-emerge in countries hit by the backwash of the US and other countries tightening monetary policy.

G20一位西方官员认为，2008年金融危机之后，保护主义成为“一只不叫的狗”，但人们担心，在遭遇美国和其他国家货币紧缩政策冲击的国家里，保护主义可能会再次抬头。

José Manuel Barroso, head of the European Commission said: “This summit should confirm the G20’s commitment against protectionism?.?.?.?and do more to roll back trade-restrictive measures. Almost 700 of these measures have been taken since 2008 and only very few have been rolled back. This trend is very disappointing and dangerous.”

欧盟委员会主席若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐(José Manuel Barroso)说：“本次峰会应当确认G20反对保护主义的承诺，下更大努力消除贸易限制性举措。2008年以来，各国推出的这类措施达到近700项，只有少数几项被取消。这一趋势非常令人失望，也很危险。”

Additional reporting by Charles Clover and Delphine Strauss

查尔斯·克洛弗(Charles Clover) 和德尔菲娜·施特劳斯(Delphine Strauss)补充报道