Have financial markets become a giant crack house? Investors have certainly been acting like a bunch of junkies lately.

金融市场是不是已经成了一个巨大的毒品窝点了？投资者最近的行为无疑就像一群瘾君子。

Any hint that their main dealer─otherwise known as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke─might start cutting down his generous supply of cash sets them off in a frenzy. Mr. Bernanke's latest comments on Wednesday, signaling a sooner-than-previously anticipated tapering off of the Fed's monetary easing, triggered a sharp global selloff in practically every asset class.

一旦有苗头显示主要毒贩──也就是美联储(Federal Reserve)主席本•贝南克(Ben Bernanke)──可能将开始削减其慷慨的货币供应，他们都会疯掉。贝南克在6月19日发表的言论暗示美联储货币宽松政策的收缩将比预期来得更早，结果全世界差不多每一个资产类别都遭到大量抛售。

Japan, the world's most central-bank-driven market at the moment, recently has been at the forefront of this commotion. After rallying 50% from the beginning of the year until May 22, the Nikkei 225 index lost more than 13% in a matter of days due to fears of the Fed reducing its asset purchases, and contradictory statements made by Bank of Japan 8301.JA -3.68% chief Haruhiko Kuroda about the targeted level of interest rates. It has fallen another 4% since the end of May, putting it close to bear market territory. This growing dependence on central bank liquidity is only the latest stage of a long process of addiction that began decades ago.

作为目前世界上央行驱动作用最为明显的市场，日本在最近的这股乱潮中站上了风口浪尖。由于市场担心美联储减少资产购买、日本央行(Bank of Japan)行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)在目标利率问题上发表的言论前后不一，日经225指数(Nikkei 225)在从年初到5月22日上涨50%之后，几天时间就下跌13%有余。5月底以来，它又下跌了4%，逼近熊市范畴。这种对央行流动性越来越强烈的依赖，不过是始于数十年前的漫长成瘾过程的一个最新阶段。

Drug addicts turn to dangerous and potentially lethal substances in order to find happiness, or at least some comfort, that their sober lives can't provide. Getting high is a way for them to live in a falsely enhanced reality. That is exactly what most developed nations have been doing for the past 30 years─artificially stimulating their economies by abusing a toxic substance called debt.

为了追求不吸毒时无法得到的快乐、或至少是些许安慰，瘾君子们会去找那些可能让他们丧命的危险物质。吸毒可以让他们生活在一种虚幻的现实中。这正是大多数发达国家在过去30年所做的事情──通过滥用一种名叫债务的有毒物质来人为地刺激各自的经济。

From 1980 to 2010, the average amount of household, nonfinancial corporate and government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product in G-7 countries (the seven most industrialized economies, excluding China) grew to 303% from 177%, a 71% jump. Over that same period, real GDP in these seven countries increased by 88% on average. When considering these two statistics, it's hard not to infer that a heavy reliance on debt had something to do with the economic happiness the world's richest nations enjoyed during those years.

从1980年到2010年，家庭、非金融企业和政府的债务占G7国家（七个最大的工业化国家，不包括中国）国内生产总值(GDP)的比重从177%增长至303%，增幅达71%。同一时期，这七个国家的实际GDP平均增长88%。考虑到这两个数据，就很难不得出这样一个结论：对债务的高度依赖同世界最富裕国家这些年享受的经济快感之间存在着某种关联。

A closer look at the United States over a longer period provides an even clearer picture. From 1950 to 1980, the world's largest economy soared by 191% in inflation-adjusted terms, while the combination of household, corporate (including financial) and government debt increased by a mere 12%. In the following three decades, from 1980 to 2010, the U.S. GDP grew a more moderate 124%, yet total debt rose by an almost identical 125%.

进一步考察美国在更长时期的情况，还可以看得更加清楚。从1950年到1980年，这个世界最大经济体按通胀因素调节后的经济规模猛增191%，而家庭、企业（包括金融企业）和政府的负债总额才增长12%。在后面的30年里，即1980年到2010年，美国GDP增长124%，幅度相对温和，而债务总额增长125%，与GDP增幅差不多一致。

Although one needs to be careful when drawing conclusions from such data, it is obvious that surging debt─whether public or private, household or corporate─contributed massively to the advanced world's economic expansion. Our prosperity was, if not stolen, at least borrowed from the future. Well, the future is now, and payback time is nearing.

虽然利用这些数据下结论必须谨慎，但债务──不管是公共还是私营债务，家庭还是企业债务──的飙升对发达国家经济的扩张起到了不可估量的作用这一点还是很明显的。即便不能说我们的繁荣是从未来“偷”过来的，至少也是“借”过来的。如今未来已来，还债的时候就要到了。

Major central banks in late 2008 and 2009 engaged in unprecedented monetary easing conducted to avoid a full-fledged financial meltdown. In doing so, they have postponed the adjustments required to stabilize let alone bring down, aggregate levels of debt in the world's largest economies. The Fed and its counterparts from England, the euro zone, Switzerland, Japan and China, have printed an astounding $10 trillion since 2007, tripling the size of their combined balance sheets.

2008年年底和2009年，为避免金融体系全面崩溃，几大央行采取了前所未有的货币宽松措施。这样一来，稳定（更不用说是降低）世界几大经济体债务总水平所需要的调整便遭到推迟。2007年以来，美联储和英国、欧元区、瑞士、日本、中国的央行印钞数量高达10万亿美元，使它们的资产负债表总额达到了原来的三倍。

By flooding the world with liquidity and keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels, they have exempted many fiscally challenged nations from having to deal with their debt addiction. These policies have also provided artificial support to household wealth and spending, as well as corporate balance sheets.

它们向全世界释放流动性、把利率压在极低水平，使很多财政困难国家不必解决举债成瘾的问题。这些政策也给家庭财富和消费水平、以及企业的资产负债表形成了人为的支撑。

Why get off the drugs if Mr. Bernanke and other members of the international central-bank cartel are providing a seemingly infinite fix? For a good reason: The risk of a global overdose is probably as high as it has ever been.

如果贝南克和国际央行卡特尔的其他成员提供了一种似乎一劳永逸的解决办法，那么为什么还要戒毒呢？一个很充分的理由：目前全球“嗑药过量”的风险恐怕不输于历史上任何时期。

Asset prices look bubbly across the board, resulting in erratic price movements that extend way beyond Japanese borders. U.S. 10-year Treasurys, which are among the least volatile securities, posted their worst monthly performance since December 2010, losing 3.5% of their value in May (and another 2% since then).

资产价格全盘显露泡沫迹象，导致价格波动飘忽不定，而且远不止于日本市场。波动性最小的10年期美国国债在5月份贬值3.5%，经历了2010年12月以来表现最差的一个月。（之后它又贬值了2%。）

Few serious money managers will tell you that they still see compelling investment opportunities out there. The more optimistic ones usually put forward the same lame reason: liquidity, liquidity, liquidity. In other words, cheap money should continue to drive up asset prices.

很少有哪位行事慎重的基金经理会跟你说，他们觉得还有诱人的投资机会存在。更乐观的那些人通常都会拿出同一个经不起推敲的理由：流动性，流动性，流动性。换句话说，就是低成本资金应该会继续推高资产价格。

Austerity-bashers agree that the party must go on. One of their most outspoken leaders, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, has been arguing for years that austerity simply 'doesn't work.' But his criticism fails to address the issue properly, since it ignores the fact that austerity─a combination of spending cuts and tax increases─is not a policy intended to stimulate growth. If anything, austerity initially hinders economic activity (as several peripheral European countries are now experiencing), and may even interfere with deficit- and debt-reduction efforts. Rehabilitation is not designed to provide short-term relief to drug addicts. It is always a long and painful process.

紧缩政策反对者都认为，盛宴必须继续进行下去。他们当中最敢言的领袖人物之一、《纽约时报》(New York Times)专栏作家保罗•克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)几年来一直在主张，紧缩政策根本“不管用”。但他的批评未能恰当地分析问题，因为这些批评忽略了这样一个事实：紧缩政策（削减支出与增加税收的组合拳）的目的不是刺激增长。紧缩政策如果说有什么问题的话，那就是它起初会阻碍经济活动（这正是几个欧洲外围国家目前所经历的），甚至有可能妨碍削减赤字、削减债务的努力。康复治疗不是为了在短时间内减轻瘾君子的疼痛，它始终是一个漫长而又痛苦的过程。

Most of those against austerity concede that some sort of fiscal consolidation─deficit and debt reduction─is needed, but not in times of economic hardship. This theory takes no account of the considerable risks that the global economy still faces. These threats require immediate fiscal action─delaying such action undermines confidence and could create self-fulfilling prophecies.

反紧缩人士当中的大部分人都承认某种形式的财政整顿──削减赤字和债务──是有必要的，但不是在经济困难时期。这一观点没有考虑到全球经济仍然面临着的相当大的风险。面对这些威胁，各国需要立即采取财政行动──推迟这些行动会削弱人们的信心，可能会促成诸多的“自证预言”。

How long will markets continue to give credit to debt-addicted nations? Would any of us lend money to a junkie? This 'spend more, worry later' approach is also a waste of the historic momentum that the crisis created for fiscal discipline and reform─momentum that is now fading due to asset reflation.

市场鼓励举债成瘾国家的现象还会持续多久？我们有谁会借钱给瘾君子呢？另外，危机为财政约束与财政改革创造了历史性的机遇，“花了再说”的方针也是对这种机遇的浪费。随着资产价格的再度膨胀，这种机遇正在逐渐消失。

Austerity is not a choice, nor is it an alternative to some other economic policy. It is a life-or-death obligation meant to prevent the world from an otherwise inevitable debt overdose. Unlike what some would like to believe, there is no painless recovery from a crisis that follows 30 years of stolen growth through heavy debt abuse.

紧缩不是一个选项，也不是对其他某种经济政策的替代。它是一种事关生死的义务，没有它，世界就会不可避免地像嗑药过量一样地举债过量。和一些人希望相信的不一样，在30年来通过无节制高额负债窃取经济增长之后，想要顺顺利利地实现复苏是不可能的。