The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are set to leave their key interest rates unchanged Thursday as they await clarity on the duration and scale of the energy shock that has accompanied the conflict in the Middle East.

鉴于中东冲突引发的能源冲击将持续多久、规模多大尚不明朗，欧洲央行和英格兰银行预计将于周四维持基准利率不变。



At their last meetings in March, Europe's leading central banks made it clear that they were prepared to increase borrowing costs in response to the surge in energy prices.

在3月的上一次会议上，欧洲主要央行明确表示，准备针对能源价格飙升提高借贷成本。

That communication led investors to expect a number of rate rises soon. In subsequent weeks, officials clarified their position, stressing that rates would move only if there is a likelihood that wages will pick up, and prices of a wide range of goods and services are set to rise.

这一表态让投资者预期近期将有一系列加息举措。 在随后的几周里，官员们澄清了立场，强调只有当工资可能上涨，且各类商品和服务价格即将上涨时，才会调整利率。

They also indicated that it would take some time before the economic impact of the war can be judged, and that hastening to make a call would be a mistake. Investors no longer expect quite so much action quite so quickly, while central bankers are expected to reaffirm their readiness to tighten policy.

他们还指出，需要一段时间才能判断战争对经济的影响，仓促决策是错误的。 投资者不再预期会如此迅速地采取如此大规模的行动，而央行官员们预计将重申收紧政策的意愿。

"The ECB shouldn't be in any rush or panic to hike rates but will definitely want to come across as fully determined to act if needed," said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Bank.

荷兰国际集团首席经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基表示：“欧洲央行不应急于或恐慌地加息，但肯定希望在必要时展现出坚决采取行动的姿态。”

Inflation has already picked up as a consequence of the war. In the eurozone, consumer prices were 2.6% higher in March than a year earlier, an acceleration from the 1.9% increase seen in February. For the U.K., inflation rose to 3.3% from 3%.

受战争影响，通胀已经有所抬头。 在欧元区，3月份消费者价格同比上涨2.6%，高于2月份1.9%的涨幅。 英国的通胀率则从3%升至3.3%。

With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed to shipping, and energy prices staying high, inflation is set to remain above prewar projections. The BOE will publish new forecasts Thursday, and is seen following the ECB in raising its inflation projections, and lowering its expectations for growth.

由于霍尔木兹海峡基本仍处于封锁状态，能源价格居高不下，通胀预计将高于战前预期。 英格兰银行将于周四公布新的预测，预计将跟随欧洲央行上调通胀预期，并下调经济增长预期。

What worries rate setters is that the longer the strait is blocked and energy prices are high, the more likely it is that workers will press for and secure bigger pay rises than they have sought over recent months, and that businesses will raise their prices to cover their increased costs. Those second-round effects would likely keep inflation higher for longer.

令利率制定者担忧的是，海峡封锁时间越长、能源价格越高，工人就越有可能要求并获得比近几个月更高的加薪幅度，企业也越有可能提高价格以转嫁增加的成本。 这些第二轮效应可能会使通胀在更长时间内保持高位。

For the BOE at least, there are few signs of a surge in wages. The central bank's regional agents reported Friday that with around 80% of 2026 pay deals now agreed, the average increase was around 3.5%, only a little higher than the rate that policymakers judge consistent with inflation meeting their 2% target.

至少对英格兰银行而言，目前几乎没有工资大幅上涨的迹象。 该行地区代表周五报告称，在已达成的2026年薪资协议中，约80%的平均涨幅约为3.5%，仅略高于政策制定者认为与实现2%通胀目标相符的涨幅。

"There is little evidence of a Middle East effect on pay yet," the agents said.

“目前几乎没有证据表明中东局势对薪资产生了影响，”地区代表们表示。

Mixed signals on the future status of the strait are complicating the call for Europe's central bankers. On some days, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran seem to suggest it may open soon. On other days, a much lengthier period of disruption seems likely.

有关该海峡未来地位的信号相互矛盾，这让欧洲央行官员们面临复杂局面。 有时，美国与伊朗的谈判似乎表明海峡可能很快开放。 而在其他时候，则似乎可能出现更长时间的混乱局面。

"The stop-start nature of the conflict—war, ceasefire, peace talks, their collapse, a naval blockade, its lifting, its reinstatement—makes it exceptionally hard to gauge the duration and depth of the consequences," said ECB President Christine Lagarde in a speech last week.

欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在上周的一次讲话中表示：“冲突的时断时续——战争、停火、和平谈判、谈判破裂、海军封锁、解除封锁、重新实施封锁——使得判断其后果的持续时间和严重程度变得异常困难。”

The next opportunity for policymakers to respond to the threat of a persistent pickup in inflation will come in June, by which time they will know more about how workers have responded.

政策制定者将在6月迎来应对通胀持续上升威胁的下一个机会，届时他们将更了解工人的反应。

"The ECB will wait and gather more information before deciding in June if it should tighten monetary policy or not," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a note to clients.

德意志银行经济学家在给客户的报告中写道：“欧洲央行将等待并收集更多信息，然后在6月决定是否收紧货币政策。”

If the strait remains closed, there is a possibility that either the ECB or the BOE, or both, will lift key rates. The ECB is the more likely of the two to move early, since its key rate is at a level that neither restrains nor stimulates activity, while the BOE's rate continues to hinder growth.

如果海峡继续封锁，欧洲央行或英格兰银行，或两者都有可能提高基准利率。 欧洲央行更有可能较早采取行动，因为其基准利率既不抑制也不刺激经济活动，而英格兰银行的利率仍在阻碍经济增长。

"In contrast to the ECB, we think the starting point for the Bank of England—both in terms of the economic backdrop and policy stance—leaves it facing less pressure to raise rates," economists at RBC Capital Markets wrote in a note to clients.

加拿大皇家银行资本市场的经济学家在给客户的报告中写道：“与欧洲央行相比，我们认为英格兰银行——无论是在经济背景还是政策立场方面——面临的加息压力都较小。”

素材来源：iYuba

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