Now that the Bank of Japan has fired a monetary bazooka at deflation, people are asking “what’s next” for Abenomics, our drive to revive Japan’s economy. The challenges are serious. Ours is the only country in the post-war era to suffer from deflationary stagnation. Since the bubble economy burst in the early 1990s, we have struggled through two “lost decades”. Deflationary expectations are entrenched, discouraging investment in the future and eating away at the economy. Wages, consumption and investment are sluggish. 既然日本央行(BoJ)已经利用货币“火箭筒”向通缩开火，人们想知道“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)的“下一步举措”是什么。安倍经济学是我们为复兴日本经济而推出的举措。挑战是巨大的。日本是战后唯一同时陷入通货紧缩和经济停滞的国家。自上世纪90年代初泡沫经济破裂以来，我们艰难度过了两个“失去的十年”。通缩预期根深蒂固，打压了未来的投资积极性，同时也在侵蚀着经济。工资、消费和投资全都萎靡不振。

The key insight of Abenomics is that deflation cannot be destroyed by one bazooka. That is why we are firing three: bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy to overcome stagnation. The inspiration is Franklin Roosevelt’s leadership during the Great Depression and, before him, Korekiyo Takahashi, a Japanese finance minister in the 1920s and 30s whose stimulus policies are said to have been a model for Roosevelt’s. 安倍经济学的关键见解是，一个“火箭筒”不可能解决通缩问题。因此我们要发射三个“火箭筒”：大胆的货币政策、灵活的财政政策，以及战胜经济停滞的增长策略。灵感来自“大萧条”(Great Depression)时期富兰克林•罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)的领导，以及在他之前的高桥是清(Takahashi Korekiyo)。高桥是清曾在上世纪二三十年代担任日本财政大臣，据说罗斯福借鉴了高桥是清推出的刺激政策。

Markets have felt the blast of the first bazooka. Haruhiko Kuroda, the new governor of the Bank of Japan, has already announced “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing”. The Bank will double Japan’s already expanded monetary base, taking all imaginable measures to achieve 2 per cent inflation in about two years. The policy pushed long term interest rates to record lows. 市场感觉到了第一个“火箭筒”的爆炸。日本央行新任行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)已宣布推出“定量和定性的货币宽松政策”。日本央行将让业已扩大的货币基础增长一倍，动用所有想像得到的措施，在两年左右的时间实现2%的通胀目标。该政策推动长期利率降到了历史低点。

The second bazooka – flexible fiscal policy – seeks to create private demand. Our supplementary budget for 2012 is expected to boost real gross domestic product by around 2 per cent. Tax reform will provide practical benefits for entrepreneurs undertaking investment and raising wages. Tax changes will encourage companies to mobilize hoarded cash for capital and human investment. 第二个“火箭筒”（即灵活的财政政策）旨在创造私人需求。我们的2012年补充预算案预计会让实际国内生产总值(GDP)增加大约2%。税收改革将为进行投资和涨薪的企业家带来实际的益处。税收改革将鼓励企业动用囤积的现金进行资本和人力投资。

Economic sentiment – and the stock market – has improved dramatically since Shinzo Abe, our prime minister, took office in December. Abenomics has already gained some ground in the attack on deflation; some companies have raised wages in response to dialogue with the government. 自安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)去年12月担任首相以来，经济信心（以及股市形势）大为改善。安倍经济学已经在抗击通缩方面取得一些进展；一些企业已经提高了工资来响应与政府的对话。

This momentum must now be turned into a recovery. So we must address risks associated with the first phase: the risk of “bad inflation” and “bad” rises in interest rates. Price rises unaccompanied by growth would cut real incomes and hurt public welfare. That is “bad inflation”. To avoid this requires the third bazooka, a strategy to maximises our economic potential. 现在，我们必须把当前这种势头转化为经济复苏。因此我们必须解决与第一阶段相关的风险：“坏通胀”和利率“恶性”上升的风险。没有伴随经济增长的物价上涨将导致实际收入下降，损害公共福利。这就是“坏通胀”。要避免这种情况就需要第三个“火箭筒”，使我们的经济潜力得到最大程度的发挥。

I believe that Japan’s potential is great. Some industries have been hit hard by competitors elsewhere in Asia, but Japan is still blessed with overwhelming advantages in many strategic areas, from linear-motor trains to water supply systems. Finding our hidden strength and changing our mindset is needed for Japan to regain true competitiveness. 我相信，日本拥有巨大的潜力。一些行业遭到亚洲其他地区竞争对手的严重冲击，但日本幸运地仍然在许多战略领域——从直线电机列车到供水系统等——拥有压倒性的优势。日本有必要找到隐藏优势，转变观念，重树真正的竞争力。

Japan plans to join negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement; that could be a good opportunity for Japan to find its hidden strength. Bold deregulation and policies inducing innovation are also needed for internal reform. In many big Japanese companies, success in the past led to inflexibility and risk aversion. Strengthened corporate governance may be needed to change the way they do business and facilitate open innovation. A smooth transfer of resources, including labour, to growing sectors is essential for enhancing productivity. Gains in employment and wages are essential for sustainable growth. 日本计划加入“跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定”(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)的谈判；这可能是日本找到自身隐藏优势的良机。日本还需要进行内部改革，大胆地“去监管化”，并出台鼓励创新的政策。日本的许多大型企业由于过去的成功而行事僵化并厌恶风险。日本可能还需要强化企业治理，以使企业转变经营方式，并促进开放式创新。平稳地转移劳动力等资源的配置，使之投向增长领域，对提高生产率至关重要。扩大就业和工资增长对经济获得持续增长非常关键。

The second risk, of a “bad” rise in interest rates, could materialise if monetary easing is not accompanied by fiscal consolidation. That is not our plan. With public debt now over 200 per cent of GDP, policy makers have a sense of urgency about this issue. There was bipartisan support last summer for an unpopular rise in the consumption tax. We stand by our international commitment to fiscal consolidation. Japan will halve its primary deficit by 2015 and resolve it by 2020. I intend to raise the consumption tax, as scheduled. 如果货币宽松没有伴随着财政整固，第二种风险即利率“恶性”上涨可能变成现实。这并非我们的初衷。随着公共债务与GDP的比例达到200%以上，政策制定者感到迫切需要解决这一问题。去年夏天两党支持提高消费税，尽管这不受民众欢迎。我们坚守向国际社会做出的财政整固的承诺。日本到2015年将把基本赤字削减一半，到2020年完全消灭基本赤字。我打算按计划提高消费税。

The broader vision of Abenomics is to create a society where people who are willing to work are offered opportunities and are rewarded fairly. Such a society will emphasise advanced technology and innovation, rather than mass production and price competition. The revival of Japan will be beneficial to the rest of the world, since it is also a process of evolution into a mature economy that can build win-win relationships with its economic partners. 安倍经济学的更广泛愿景，是构建一个只要愿意工作就能够得到工作机遇和公平报酬的社会。这样一个社会将注重先进技术和创新，而不是规模化生产和价格竞争。日本的复苏将有益于世界其他国家，因为在这个过程中，日本将发展为一个能够与经济合作伙伴建立双赢关系的成熟经济体。