The Bank of Canada likely will keep its main interest rate unchanged Wednesday, but there is growing doubt that officials can hold rates steady the longer energy prices remain elevated, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal say.

《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家表示，加拿大央行周三可能会维持基准利率不变，但随着能源价格持续高企，官员们能否长期维持利率稳定的疑虑日益加深。

The conflict in the Middle East has effectively closed oil-tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sizable jump in crude oil prices and what drivers pay to fill up their tanks. The energy-price shock has sharply lifted near-term inflation expectations, according to a recent Bank of Canada survey. Higher inflation expectations influence price setting by firms and spending plans by households, so the central bank is keep to those expectations close to its 2% target.

中东冲突已导致霍尔木兹海峡油轮运输实际上陷入停滞，推动原油价格大幅上涨，驾车者加油成本随之攀升。 加拿大央行近期的一项调查显示，能源价格冲击已显著推高短期通胀预期。 由于企业定价和家庭支出计划均受通胀预期影响，央行正密切关注这些预期是否接近其2%的目标水平。

Iran presented on Monday a new offer to stop its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a full end of the war—including the U.S. abandoning its naval blockade of Iranian ports, the Journal reported.

据《华尔街日报》报道，伊朗周一提出新提议，愿停止对霍尔木兹海峡船只的袭击，条件是全面结束战争，包括美国解除对伊朗港口的海军封锁。

All 13 economists surveyed last week by the Journal predicted no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate, which sits presently at 2.25%. Inflation did accelerate in March, by 2.4%, but that fell short of market expectations for a 2.6% climb.

《华尔街日报》上周调查的13位经济学家均预测加拿大央行政策利率（当前为2.25%）将保持不变。 尽管3月通胀率加速至2.4%，但仍低于市场预期的2.6%。

"While upside risks to inflation remain, it may be too soon to determine whether the increase in inflation expectations will persist beyond the initial outbreak of the war," said Shelly Kaushik, economist at BMO Capital Markets. Analysts added that March data indicate inflation excluding energy and food rose 1.9% in March, and core prices—which strip out volatile items—decelerated during the month.

BMO资本市场经济学家雪莉·考希克表示：“虽然通胀上行风险仍存，但判断通胀预期上升是否会持续至战争初期阶段之后可能为时尚早。” 分析人士补充称，3月数据表明，剔除能源和食品后的通胀率上升1.9%，而剔除波动性项目的核心价格增速在该月有所放缓。

Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem has said officials do not expect higher energy prices to rapidly pass through and lift prices for other goods and services. He added officials do have a delicate balancing act, to refrain from raising rates prematurely and further slow down a struggling economy, while avoiding waiting too long to act before higher inflation becomes entrenched.

加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆曾表示，官员们预计能源价格上涨不会迅速传导至其他商品和服务价格。 他同时承认，央行面临微妙平衡：既要避免过早加息进一步拖累疲软的经济，又要防止行动过晚导致高通胀根深蒂固。

The survey of economists indicated that nine analysts believe Canada's central bank won't raise rates this year, although some provided caveats to their prediction. Three economists suggested a rate increase in the second half of this year is possible, depending on events in the Middle East. Only one economist has penciled in rate increases.

经济学家调查显示，9位分析师认为加拿大央行今年不会加息，尽管部分人对预测附有保留条件。 3位经济学家表示，若中东局势发展，今年下半年可能加息。 仅有1位经济学家预测会加息。

Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union, said a relatively quick resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict would lead to an easing in oil prices, allowing the Bank of Canada to remain on hold. Conversely, "a prolonged period with oil close to $100 a barrel would lead to increased inflationary pressures that are likely to become more sustained. In that case, we could expect the bank to hike, and it could be as early as July."

Servus信用合作社首席经济学家查尔斯·圣阿尔诺表示，若美伊冲突迅速解决，油价将回落，加拿大央行可维持利率不变。 反之，“若油价长期维持在每桶100美元附近，将导致通胀压力加剧且更可能持续。 届时我们可能预期央行加息，最早或于7月行动。”

RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said his official forecast, of no change this year in the Bank of Canada's main interest rate, is contingent on the war in Iran ending by mid-year. "Should the war continue and destruction of production and refining capacity around the Persian Gulf region recommence, then we would need to revise that forecast," he said.

RSM首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏埃拉斯称，其官方预测（加拿大央行今年维持基准利率不变）的前提是伊朗战争年中前结束。 “若战争持续且波斯湾地区生产和炼油能力再次遭破坏，我们将需要修正预测。”

Also in the background is the state of talks to renew the existing U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade treaty, or USMCA. The bulk of Canadian exports to the U.S. have avoided tariffs because they comply with USMCA. However, U.S.-Canada talks on USMCA renewal have stalled, while negotiations with Mexico are at an advanced stage. Trade-related criticisms and threats between U.S. and Canadian officials have intensified this month, and some trade watchers fear Canadian officials, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, are preparing for negotiations to fail.

此外，美墨加贸易协定（USMCA）续签谈判进展也备受关注。 加拿大对美出口因符合USMCA规定而大多免征关税。 但美加USMCA续签谈判停滞不前，而与墨西哥的谈判已进入后期阶段。 本月美加官员间贸易相关批评和威胁升级，部分贸易观察人士担心，以总理马克·卡尼为首的加拿大官员正为谈判失败做准备。

Bradley Saunders from Capital Economics said uncertainty around the USMCA talks likely puts off a Bank of Canada rate increase until the first quarter of 2027, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon. Trade-policy uncertainty has prompted companies and households to delay or cancel investment and spending plans, and Macklem has said the war in Iran represents "a new acute layer of uncertainty to an already challenging environment."

凯投宏观的布拉德利·桑德斯表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡很快重新开放，USMCA谈判的不确定性也可能使加拿大央行加息推迟至2027年第一季度。 贸易政策不确定性已促使企业和家庭推迟或取消投资和支出计划，麦克勒姆曾称伊朗战争为“本已充满挑战的环境增添了新的严峻不确定性”。

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