The Chinese renminbi marched to a record high against the US dollar on Thursday, adding to a recent burst of appreciation and spurring talk that Beijing is poised to soon let the currency trade more freely. 人民币兑美元汇率周四创下历史新高。近期人民币升值步伐加快，引发传言称，中国官方不久将加大人民币交易的自由度。

Over the past three weeks the renminbi has gained 0.6 per cent against the dollar, an unusually fast rise for the tightly controlled Chinese currency and one that has come even as the dollar has been relatively strong. 过去3周期间，人民币相对于美元升值0.6%。对受到严密控制的人民币来说，这一升幅快得异常，而且是在美元本身相对坚挺的背景下出现的。

The renminbi’s upward trajectory continued on Thursday after a three-day public holiday, with the central bank setting a record high in its daily fixing of the reference rate for the currency. During the day’s trading, the renminbi reached 6.1537 against the dollar, its strongest ever. 为期3天的公众假日结束后，人民币周四延续上行走势，中国央行公布的当日人民币参考汇率达到创纪录高度。当日交易中，人民币一度达到1美元兑6.1537元人民币，创下人民币汇率的最高纪录。

The mini-surge has fuelled speculation that the People’s Bank of China could be preparing the ground for a more flexible exchange rate mechanism. 此轮小幅涨势加剧了相关猜测，即中国央行可能在为打造更有弹性的汇率机制奠定基础。

Currently, the renminbi can rise or fall by 1 per cent from a daily reference rate fixed in the morning by the central bank. Analysts say this trading band may soon be widened to 2 per cent, a gesture by Beijing to show that it wants to move towards a more market-determined exchange rate. 目前，人民币汇率以央行每天早上公布的中间价为参照，可在上下1%的区间内浮动。分析师们表示，这一交易区间可能在不久被拓宽至2%，北京方面将通过此举表明，中国有意迈向在更大程度上由市场决定的汇率形成机制。

Yi Gang, a central bank deputy governor, said last month that an increase in the renminbi’s floating band was probable “in the near future”. 中国央行副行长易纲上月称，近期很有可能放宽人民币汇率交易波动区间。

It would be the second year in a row that the central bank has widened the trading band, having doubled it from 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent last April. 这将是中国央行连续第二年拓宽人民币交易区间。去年4月，中国央行将这一区间扩大一倍，即从0.5%拓宽至1%。

By pushing the renminbi higher, the central bank could be attempting to guide the currency to a level where it is as likely to fall as to rise against the dollar in order to ensure that a wider band does not simply invite traders to bet on appreciation. 中国央行推高人民币汇率，可能意在引导人民币兑美元汇率达到既可能上升、也可能下降的水平，以确保更宽的交易区间不只是邀请交易员押注人民币走高。

“The recent moves may reflect a strategy to accelerate the search for the equilibrium value to eventually dash the one-way plays,” analysts at Citi wrote in a recent note to clients. “近期的动向可能反映这样一种战略，即加快对均衡价值的搜寻，最终消除单向押注的倾向，”花旗(Citi)分析师最近在发给客户的简报中写道。

Nevertheless, it is easy to overstate the significance of the potential shift to a wider trading band, according to Mark Williams and Wang Qinwei, analysts at Capital Economics. 然而，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)分析师马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)和王勤伟表示，很容易高估拓宽交易区间的重大意义。

In a research note on Thursday, they showed that the renminbi’s 1 per cent trading band was already wide enough to accommodate the normal daily fluctuations of completely free-floating currencies such as the dollar and the euro. 他们在周四发布的一份研究简报中指出，1%的波动区间已足以容纳美元和欧元等完全自由浮动的货币的日间正常波动。

The limiting factor in the renminbi’s movement has not been the trading band but rather the central bank’s daily fixing of the currency. Even when pressure for the renminbi to appreciate is strong, as it has been this year, the central bank has continually guided the currency back to a weaker level with its daily fixing and also intervened to buy up the foreign exchange streaming into China, Messrs Williams and Wang said. 限制人民币涨跌的因素并不是交易区间，而是央行每日设定的人民币中间价。威廉姆斯和王勤伟表示，即使是在人民币升值压力较大的时期（今年迄今一直是这种情况），央行也通过每日设定的中间价，持续引导人民币汇率回落至较低水平，央行还干预汇市，买下流入中国的外汇。

“How fast the currency moves over the medium term is determined by how [the central bank] sets the reference rate, not the size of the trading band,” they said. “中期而言，人民币汇率的变化速度是由中国央行如何设定参考汇率、而不是交易区间的大小决定的，”他们表示。