Hi.

嗨，

I'm here to talk about congestion, namely road congestion.

我要在这里谈谈拥堵问题 我指的是道路堵塞。

Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.

道路堵塞普遍存在。

It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world, which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.

世界上几乎所有的城市都存在这个问题 斟酌之下这是挺奇怪的事

I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.

我的意思是，想想每个城市实际上有多大的差别。

I mean, you have the typical European cities, with a dense urban core, good public transportation mostly, not a lot of road capacity.

我是说，既有那些典型的欧洲城市 那里有高密度的中心城区，大部分有良好的公交体系 但道路容量并不充足

But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.

另一边厢，还有美式都会

It's moving by itself, okay.

基本上都以自驾车为主，对吧。

Anyway, the American cities: lots of roads dispersed over large areas, almost no public transportation.

不管怎样，在美式城市里 公路系统覆盖大部分地区， 公交系统几乎是不存在的。

And then you have the emerging world cities, with a mixed variety of vehicles, mixed land-use patterns,

此外还有新兴世界的城市 那里各式交通工具并存， 土地利用模式丰富多样，

also rather dispersed but often with a very dense urban core.

而且分布广泛 但是通常中心区的密度极高。

And traffic planners all around the world have tried lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,

世界各地的交通规划者都曾尝试 许多不同的方式：集中化城市或是分散化城市，

lots of roads or lots of public transport or lots of bike lanes or more information, or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.

大量道路或是大量公交， 又或者是大量自行车道或提供更多的信息， 还有许多不同的尝试，可惜看起来都不太见效。

But all of these attempts have one thing in common.

但是以上尝试有一个共同点。

They're basically attempts at figuring out what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.

就是基本上他们都是试着搞清楚 除了车流高峰出行外人们应该做什么。

They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning what other people should do, planning their life for them.

简而言之，他们都是尝试规划 他人应该做的事情，为他们规划生活。

Now, planning a complex social system is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.

现在，规划一个复杂的社会系统 是件相当困难的事，我来讲个故事好了。

Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, an urban planner in London got a phone call from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically, "Hi,

早在1989年，当柏林围墙倒塌的时候， 一个伦敦的城市规划师接到一通电话， 是莫斯科的同事打来的，大意是 “喂，

this is Vladimir.

我是Vladimir。

I'd like to know, who's in charge of London's bread supply?" And the urban planner in London goes, "What do you mean,

我想知道， 伦敦的面包供应是由谁负责的？“伦敦的那位规划师回答道 ”你问的是什么意思？

who's in charge of London's — I mean, no one is in charge." "Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.

是谁负责伦敦的... 我是说，这个没有负责。“ ”哦，但总得有个人拍板的吧。

I mean, it's a very complicated system.

我是说，这是一个非常复杂的系统。

Someone must control all of this." "No.

总得有人来管才行啊。”

No.

“不，不，不，

No one is in charge.

没人管的。

I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.

我是说，基本上...我从没想过这个问题。

It basically organizes itself."

基本上它是自发组织起来的。“

It organizes itself.

自发组织。

That's an example of a complex social system which has the ability of self-organizing, and this is a very deep insight.

这就是复杂却 能够自我组织的复杂社会系统的例子。而这极富启发性。

When you try to solve really complex social problems, the right thing to do is most of the time to create the incentives.

当你要解决真正复杂的社会问题的时候， 大多数情况下，正确的做法 应该是创造激励机制。

You don't plan the details, and people will figure out what to do, how to adapt to this new framework.

并不需要去设计细枝末节， 人们自会 知道如何适应新的架构。

And let's now look at how we can use this insight to combat road congestion.

现在我们来看看这个指导思想 如何能帮我们解决拥堵的问题。

This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.

这是我的家乡，斯德哥尔摩的地图。

Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,

如今斯德哥尔摩是一个中等规模城市，大概有两百万人口，

but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --

同时斯德哥尔摩也是水道纵横的城市， 水多桥也多，各种狭窄的，历史久远的桥梁...

which means lots of road congestion.

而道路拥堵也就随之而来。

And these red dots show the most congested parts, which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.

图上的红点标出了最拥堵的路段, 都是通往市内的方向的桥梁.上

And then someone came up with the idea that, apart from good public transport, apart from spending money on roads,

于是有人想出了这样一个点子， 不是良好的公共交通， 不是花钱修路，

let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.

而是试着收取这些交通瓶颈的司机缴纳一两欧的费用。

Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money, I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,

现在的一两欧只是个小钱， 我是说相对停车以及保养等费用而言，

so you would probably expect that car drivers wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.

所以你大概以为 司机不会对这么点小钱有什么反应。

You would be wrong.

你错了。

One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars disappear from rush hours.

仅仅一两欧就足以让20％ 的车辆避开行车高峰。

Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think, but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?

你可能会说20％虽然已经是个不错的数字， 可是还有余下的80％没解决，对吧？

Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.

因为还有80％的车辆在车流当中。

Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be a nonlinear phenomenon,

你又错了，因为路况 恰巧是个非线性的现象，

meaning that once you reach above a certain capacity threshold then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.

也就是说 当流量达到某个阙值 拥堵情况就开始加剧并迅速恶化。

But fortunately, it also works the other way around.

不过幸运的是，反过来也是成立的。

If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion will go down much faster than you might think.

只要流量有某种程度的降低，拥堵现象的 缓解会比想象中快得多。

Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture of Stockholm,

斯德哥尔摩的交通拥堵费是从 2006年1月3日开始征收的，这里的第一张图

one of the typical streets, January 2.

是1月2日拍到的典型的斯德哥尔摩街道的照片。

The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.

交通拥堵费实施的首日，拍得的照片是这样的。

This is what happens when you take away 20 percent of the cars from the streets.

当你排除了20%的车辆时 街道是这个样子的。

You really reduce congestion quite substantially.

拥堵的状况确实得到了很大的缓解。

But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?

正如我提到的，司机们能适应，对吧？

So after a while they would all come back because they have sort of gotten used to charges.

那过了一段时间以后，他们就会回到路上 因为他们已经习惯了收费。

Wrong again.

又错了。

It's now six and a half years ago since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm, and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.

今天，在斯德哥尔摩 交通拥堵费已经施行了六年半了， 基本上路况能一直保持同样的较低拥堵水平。

But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series in 2007.

但是，你看，在2007年 有一个有趣的插曲。

Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges, they were introduced first as a trial,

事情是这样的，交通拥堵费， 一开始是试验性质的，

so they were introduced in January and then abolished again at the end of July, followed by a referendum,

一月份开始推广，七月底在一次公投后取消了，

and then they were reintroduced again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.

在2007年再度收取， 这当然是一次难得的科学实验的机会。

I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with, and we actually got to do it twice.

我是说，这本身就是一个很有趣的实验， 而且我们有机会做了两次。

And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so, but they won't let me do that.

对我个人而言，我巴不得年把两年就能重做一次， 不过这会让他们随时受不了的。

But it was fun anyway.

不管怎样这也十分有趣。

So, we followed up.

于是，我们进行了跟踪。

What happened?

情况如何呢？

This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31, and you see the same street but now it's summer,

这是引进交通拥堵费的最后一天，7月31日， 你看到的是相同的街道，但这是在夏天，

and summer in Stockholm is a very nice and light time of the year, and the first day without the congestion charges looked like this.

夏天是斯德哥尔摩一年中 非常美好而轻松的季节， 废除交通拥堵费后的第一天 看起来是这个样子的。

All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire the car drivers.

所有的车都回来了，不得不佩服这些司机，

They adapt so extremely quickly.

他们反应神速。

The first day they all came back.

第一天就都回来了。

And this effect hanged on.

这个情况一直持续着。

So 2007 figures looked like this.

所以到了2007年，是这样的。

Now these traffic figures are really exciting and a little bit surprising and very useful to know, but I would say that the most surprising slide here

这些交通画面实在让人兴奋 还有些让人吃惊，并且还让人深受启发，

I'm going to show you today is not this one.

可是我要说，今天我要给大家展示的 最让人惊讶的画面不是这张。

It's this one.

而是这一张。

This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,

它显示了公众对于在斯德哥尔摩征收交通拥堵费的支持，

and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.

而当这项收费在2006年春天 刚刚开始施行的时候，大家是强烈反对的。

Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.

70%的人都反对。

But what happened when the congestion charges were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.

但是收费实施以后 人们并没有像预期中那样越来越讨厌这个举措。

No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges, meaning that -- I mean,

相反的，他们的想法从某种程度上来说来了个大逆转， 现在70%的人是继续收费的支持者。

let me repeat that: 70 percent of the population in Stockholm want to keep a price for something that used to be free.

也就是说，让我重复一次：斯德哥尔摩中70%的人口 同意对某项过去免费的东西来继续收费。

Okay.

OK

So why can that be?

这怎么可能呢？

Why is that?

是为什么呢？

Well, think about it this way.

想想看，

Who changed?

是谁改变了呢？

I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared, surely they must be discontent in a way.

我是说，20%的司机没有上路， 他们肯定有点不乐意吧。

And where did they go?

他们去哪里了呢？

If we can understand this, then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.

如果我们能了解这点， 那也许就能弄清楚为什么人们对这个满意。

Well, so we did this huge interview survey with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out who changed, and where did they go?

于是我们做了这个大型的问卷调查， 针对各种交通服务，以尝试了解 是谁变了，他们去了哪里？

And it turned out that they don't know themselves.

结果他们自己也搞不清楚

(Laughter) For some reason, the car drivers are -- they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.

（笑声)。不知道为什么，司机们 都自信满满地说自己实际上还是如从前一样驾驶。

And why is that?

这是为什么呢？

It's because that travel patterns are much less stable than you might think.

因为驾驶模式 并不像你想象中那么死板。

Each day, people make new decisions, and people change and the world changes around them,

每天，人们都会做出新的决定，而人们 和他们所处的世界也都在改变，

and each day all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly away from rush hour car driving in a way that people don't even notice.

每天 这些决定其实随时都在微调 以避开车流高峰出行，

They're not even aware of this themselves.

而人们往往都没有意识到。哪怕是他们自己。

And the other question, who changed their mind?

另外一个问题是，是谁改变了他们的想法呢？

Who changed their opinion, and why?

谁让他们改变了主意，而且为什么会改变呢？

So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out

于是我们做了另外一个调查，试着了解 人们

why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?

为什么改变主意，哪一些人改变了主意？

And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that

分析结果显示

more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.

有超过一半的人认为 自己的想法并没有改变。

They're actually confident that they have

他们都自以为本来

liked congestion pricing all along.

就是收取交通拥堵费的支持者。

Which means that we are now in a position

所以，现在的实际情况是

where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon

我们把堵点的交通流量降低了

with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,

20％， 从而极大减少了拥堵的状况，

and people aren't even aware that they have changed,

而人们竟浑然不知自己的行为已经产生了变化，

and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.

而且他们真心诚意认为自己一开始就是支持的。

This is the power of nudges when trying to solve

这就是微小的推动力在解决

complex social problems, and when you do that,

复杂的社会问题中妙用，而当你利用它的时候，

you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.

不应该告诉人们怎样去适应。

You should just nudge them in the right direction.

只需要朝正确的方向进行微调。

And if you do it right,

如果你做对了，

people will actually embrace the change,

人们就会接受这种变化，

and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.

如果做好了，人们甚至可能喜欢上它。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）